春节假期，市交通运输综合行政执法支队全力保障群众出行安畅。2月15日至23日，镇江市公路客 运共计发送2895班次，累计安全发送旅客2.94万人次，其中，班车客运发送1.79万人次，包车（含旅 游）客运发送旅客1.15万人次。 今年春节假期天气总体较好，群众出行意愿较高，以返乡流、探亲流、旅游流为主，但受高铁、私 家车等出行方式影响，公路客运发送量呈小幅下降态势。 客流高峰主要在假期返程期间，日均客流近0.5万人次。从出行距离来看，客流以中短途为主，200 公里以下客流超过85%。出行方向方面，班车客流以省内扬州、泰州、淮安及镇江往返丹阳、句容、扬 中3市为主；旅游客流集中于周边安徽、南京、常州、无锡等省市。 为充分发挥公路客运衔接保障作用，南京禄口机场、常州奔牛机场班线发送旅客约850人次。客流 高峰期间，全市各汽车客运站组织徐州、淮安、南通等方向加班车16班次，发送旅客约700人次，有效 保障旅客出行。（徐成 记者 单杉） ...

Core Insights - The overall inter-regional personnel flow during the Spring Festival on February 22, 2026, reached 38,035.2 million trips, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 5.8% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% compared to the same day in 2025 [1] Transportation Sector Summary - **Railway Passenger Volume**: The railway passenger volume was 18.27 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% and a year-on-year increase of 11.1% compared to 2025 [1] - **Highway Personnel Flow**: The total highway personnel flow, including both commercial and non-commercial passenger traffic, was 35,776 million trips, showing a month-on-month increase of 5.8% and a year-on-year increase of 12.3% compared to 2025. The commercial passenger volume was 3.335 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. Non-commercial passenger traffic on highways was 32,441 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 5.6% and a year-on-year increase of 13.5% [1] - **Waterway Passenger Volume**: The waterway passenger volume was 1.672 million trips, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 8% but a year-on-year increase of 36.1% compared to 2025 [1] - **Civil Aviation Passenger Volume**: The civil aviation passenger volume reached 2.644 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4% and a year-on-year increase of 6.8% compared to 2025 [1]

春节出行和消费市场呈温和回升、层次鲜明特征，政策聚焦扩内需优结构，实体、物价、流动性各维度 数据表现分化。春运前19天跨区域人员流动日均2.48亿人次、同比增5.1%，水运成增长亮点，出行市场 进入常态化周期；商品消费依托政策与消费升级实现量价回升，智能产品成亮点，服务消费中旅游表现 亮眼，电影消费受供给质量影响表现平淡。近两周政策围绕扩内需稳增长、优结构强创新双线发力，兼 顾短期与中长期发展。实体端内需待振外需亮眼，生产分化，基建资金充裕但项目短缺问题的仍存，节 前停工早于往年，出口仍有韧性或对经济起到托底作用，生产分化持续；物价上CPI小幅上涨、PPI整体 平稳；流动性保持合理充裕，人民币持续升值。 本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者：李林芷、邵睿思、梁中华 投资要点 风险提示：贸易局势不确定性，国内需求修复不及预期。 1、春节：出行和消费温和改善 2026年春节出行和消费市场呈现出温和回升、层次鲜明的运行特征，商品消费托底、服务消费需求主 导，新质生产力向消费端的落地转化，更成为此次春节消费的亮眼新增长点。 人员流动：长假支撑下需求进一步释放，出行结构多元升级。国内春运已从过去的"单向返乡大迁徙" ...

Core Insights - The total number of people traveling during the Spring Festival reached a historic high of 352.99 million on February 20, marking a 12.3% increase compared to the same day in 2025 [1] Transportation Sector Summary - Road travel accounted for 333.02 million people, reflecting a 12.1% increase from 2025 [1] - Non-commercial passenger vehicle travel on highways and regular national and provincial roads reached 304.84 million, up 12.8% from 2025 [1] - Commercial road passenger transport recorded 28.18 million people, a 5.4% increase from 2025 [1] - Railway passenger volume was 15.37 million, showing a 14.9% increase compared to 2025 [1] - Waterway passenger transport reached 2.03 million, with a significant increase of 38.3% from 2025 [1] - Civil aviation passenger volume was 2.57 million, marking an 8.2% increase from 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The article reports a record high in cross-regional personnel flow in China, with a total of 35,299.9 million trips on February 20, marking a 12.3% increase compared to the same day in 2025 [1] Transportation Sector Summary - Road transportation accounted for 33,302 million trips, reflecting a 12.1% increase from 2025 [1] - Non-commercial passenger vehicle trips on highways and ordinary national and provincial roads reached 30,484 million, up by 12.8% compared to 2025 [1] - Commercial road passenger transport volume was 2,818 million trips, showing a 5.4% increase from 2025 [1] - Railway passenger volume was 1,537.2 million trips, which is a 14.9% increase from 2025 [1] - Waterway passenger volume reached 203.3 million trips, marking a significant 38.3% increase from 2025 [1] - Civil aviation passenger volume was 257.4 million trips, reflecting an 8.2% increase compared to 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The total inter-regional mobility of people is expected to reach 36,113 million trips, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.2% compared to the same period in 2025 [1] Transportation Modes Summary - **Railway Passenger Volume**: Expected to be 16.8 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 9.3% and a year-on-year increase of 15% compared to 2025 [1] - **Highway Mobility**: Anticipated to be 33,989 million trips, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year increase of 12% compared to 2025. This includes: - **Public Transport Volume**: Expected to be 3.109 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 10.3% and a year-on-year increase of 5.1% compared to 2025 [1] - **Non-commercial Vehicle Trips**: Expected to be 30,880 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 1.3% and a year-on-year increase of 12.7% compared to 2025 [1] - **Waterway Passenger Volume**: Expected to be 1.81 million trips, with a month-on-month decrease of 11% but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% compared to 2025 [1] - **Civil Aviation Passenger Volume**: Expected to be 2.63 million trips, with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 8.3% compared to 2025 [1]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Transport forecasts a total of 21,802 million person-times of cross-regional mobility on February 17, marking a 12.3% increase month-on-month and a 6.3% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [1] Transportation Modes Summary - **Railway Passenger Volume**: Expected to be 5.85 million person-times, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.6% but a 6.1% increase compared to 2025 [1] - **Highway Mobility**: Anticipated to reach 20,901 million person-times, with a month-on-month increase of 13.2% and a 6.3% increase compared to 2025. This includes: - **Commercial Highway Passenger Volume**: Estimated at 1.414 million person-times, showing a month-on-month decline of 23.2% but an 18.9% increase compared to 2025 [1] - **Non-commercial Highway Passenger Volume**: Expected to be 19,487 million person-times, with a month-on-month increase of 17.3% and a 5.4% increase compared to 2025 [1] - **Waterway Passenger Volume**: Projected at 930,000 person-times, indicating a month-on-month increase of 40.1% and a 25% increase compared to 2025 [1] - **Civil Aviation Passenger Volume**: Forecasted to be 2.23 million person-times, with a month-on-month increase of 15.7% and a 9.3% increase compared to 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The data from the comprehensive transportation Spring Festival work team indicates a significant decline in cross-regional personnel flow during the Spring Festival period in 2026 compared to both the previous month and the same period in 2025 [1] Summary by Category Overall Personnel Flow - The total cross-regional personnel flow reached 194.112 million trips, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 32.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 5% compared to the same day in 2025 [1] Railway Transport - Railway passenger volume was 6.932 million trips, showing a month-on-month decline of 49.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.7% compared to 2025 [1] Road Transport - The total road personnel flow, which includes both commercial and non-commercial vehicle trips, was 184.59 million trips, with a month-on-month decrease of 31.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% compared to 2025 - The commercial road passenger volume was 18.41 million trips, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 52.1% but a year-on-year increase of 19.9% - Non-commercial vehicle trips on highways and ordinary national and provincial roads accounted for 166.18 million trips, with a month-on-month decrease of 28% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.1% [1] Water Transport - Waterway passenger volume was 0.664 million trips, showing a month-on-month decline of 27.8% but a year-on-year increase of 13% compared to 2025 [1] Civil Aviation - Civil aviation passenger volume reached 1.927 million trips, with a month-on-month decrease of 18.7% and a year-on-year increase of 4.3% compared to 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Fulin Transportation (002357.SZ), has recently seen its stock price break through the 60-day moving average, reaching a new high, driven by a significant projected increase in net profit for 2025 and strategic investments in emerging sectors such as autonomous driving and low-altitude economy [1] Financial Performance - The company's 2025 earnings forecast indicates an expected net profit of between 165 million to 196 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 34.99% to 60.35% [2] - The net profit for the third quarter is projected to increase by 389.99% year-on-year, indicating a rapid improvement in profitability [2] - Despite a 4.90% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, effective cost control and increased investment income have led to a remarkable 73.16% growth in net profit [2] Business Development - The company is strategically entering the fields of autonomous driving, low-altitude economy, and vehicle networking, including a joint venture with New Stone Technology to operate L4 level autonomous delivery vehicles in Suining [3] - Collaboration with SF Express's subsidiary, Fengyi Technology, focuses on low-altitude logistics, leveraging passenger station resources for scenic area logistics [3] - A strategic cooperation agreement with Tencent Cloud was signed in February 2026 to enhance smart transportation technology support, indicating a shift towards new business models [3] Market and Technical Analysis - Recent capital movements show a net inflow of main funds, with a significant cumulative increase in stock price over the past five days and a high turnover rate indicating active trading [4] - Technical indicators suggest that the stock price is stable above all major moving averages, with a MACD crossover and expanding bullish momentum, indicating continued short-term strength [4] Industry Policy and Environment - Although the overall performance of the transportation sector has been lackluster, the company's transformation strategy has yielded excess returns [5] - There is a notable gap between the comprehensive target price set by institutions and the current stock price, with a neutral rating prevailing [5] - Future attention is required on the progress of low-altitude economy policies and the commercialization effects of new business initiatives [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the focus of the transportation departments in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps on ensuring safe and efficient transportation during the 2026 Spring Festival travel season, addressing key tasks such as safety production, transportation guarantee, and logistics smoothness [1] - The transportation system is expected to face four major characteristics during this year's Spring Festival travel: significant increase in cross-regional personnel flow, concentrated travel for family visits and tourism, strong demand for transportation of heating supplies and spring farming materials, and challenges posed by severe winter weather [1] - To address these challenges, the transportation system will enhance collaboration with local authorities, implement weather monitoring mechanisms, and develop targeted traffic management strategies for congested routes [1] Group 2 - The transportation departments will strengthen capacity reserves for public and urban transportation, and collaborate with other departments to organize transportation for students returning home and promote convenient measures such as door-to-door ticket sales and customized charter services [2] - The departments will actively coordinate with relevant agencies to monitor the transportation of essential goods, ensuring efficient passage for energy, food, and fresh produce during the Spring Festival [2] - A 24-hour duty and leadership rotation system will be strictly implemented to ensure effective communication, with the 12328 transportation service supervision hotline operating efficiently to address public inquiries and complaints [2]