上海证券发布研报称，摆线针轮减速器是人形机器人关节核心三大传动技术之一。国内摆线传动研究起 步较晚，行业内国外企业占据高端市场主导地位，国产加速替代。目前国内多家公司布局摆线减速器， 为人形机器人发展提供技术支撑。建议关注：豪能股份（603809）(603809.SH)、福达股份（603166） (603166.SH)、中大力德（002896）(002896.SZ)、禾川科技(688320.SH)、科达利（002850） (002850.SZ)、双环传动（002472）(002472.SZ)等。 上海证券主要观点如下： 根据思瀚研究院公众号，目前摆线针轮减速器主要用于环保、建筑、电力、化工、矿山、石油等领域， 未来需求放量叠加摆线减速器性能迭代，有望在人形机器人实现逐步搭载：新型减速器后续搭载路径将 从负载要求最高的下肢，到负载较高的腰髋，以及负载要求一般的肩部等环节，打开"新型/摆线减速 器"增量空间。价格层面，随着未来人形机器人需求放量及生产工艺的逐步优化，减速器价格有望逐步 下探，测算到2030年全球机器人用新型减速器的市场空间有望超140亿元。 风险提示：人形机器人研发进展不及预期;人形机器人商业化落 ...

Summary of the Conference Call on the Humanoid Robot Industry and Cycloidal Gear Reducers Industry Overview - The cycloidal gear reducer industry is crucial for industrial robots, particularly in six-axis robots where RV cycloidal gear reducers account for 90% of usage [1][4]. - The humanoid robot sector faces challenges in lightweight design, with Spinea's miniaturized products showing potential but having high manufacturing difficulty [1]. Key Points and Arguments - **Performance Limitations**: RV reducers excel in heavy-load applications but are limited in humanoid robots due to their "lack of power" characteristics. Hydraulic alternatives may be considered [1]. - **Cost Competitiveness**: Once mass production matures, the cost of RV reducers is expected to be comparable to planetary gear reducers [1]. - **Domestic Challenges**: Domestic companies struggle to meet the high reliability demands in the six-axis robot reducer market, especially in the automotive sector, where imported products are preferred despite similar pricing [1][31]. - **Current Applications**: Humanoid robots are primarily used for entertainment and experimental purposes rather than large-scale industrial applications, with efficiency and multifunctionality being limited [1][15]. - **Market Dynamics**: The RV reducer market is characterized by a lack of large-scale adoption in humanoid robots, with no clear indication of widespread use by specific companies [14]. Technical Insights - **Structure and Functionality**: The RV cycloidal gear reducer operates on a differential tooth principle, providing high rigidity and impact resistance, making it suitable for large hydraulic equipment [2]. - **Self-Locking Feature**: RV reducers maintain position stability without relying on electromagnetic locks, reducing energy consumption [11]. - **Miniaturization Challenges**: Miniaturized reducers face challenges in balancing output, size, and weight, with Spinea's design offering advantages but being difficult to manufacture [7][10]. Competitive Landscape - **Brand Positioning**: Different brands like Nabtesco and Sumitomo target the high-end market, while others focus on lightweight and high reduction ratio features [8]. - **Core Component Supply**: Key components like bearings are primarily sourced from Japanese suppliers, leading domestic companies to seek local alternatives, which often do not meet high-end performance requirements [19]. Future Outlook - **Market Potential**: The humanoid robot market has not yet seen significant growth, with potential applications remaining speculative. The industry is awaiting technological maturity and clearer market demand [33]. - **Investment Considerations**: The cost structure of RV reducers includes significant labor and material expenses, with high precision requirements in manufacturing processes [17][25]. - **Emerging Applications**: While cycloidal reducers have limited demand in deep-sea applications, their characteristics may find relevance in future humanoid robot designs as the market evolves [32]. Additional Considerations - **Barriers to Entry**: Spinea's unique design and manufacturing processes create significant barriers for competitors attempting to replicate their products [10][13]. - **Cost Reduction Potential**: Increased demand for cycloidal reducers could lead to cost reductions, as seen in other product launches where prices drop with market acceptance [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the cycloidal gear reducer industry and its implications for humanoid robots, highlighting both current challenges and future opportunities.