点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 公司营收、利润双双稳健增长 艾迪精密2025Q1-Q3实现营业收入23.7亿元，同比增长16.5%；归母净利润3.2亿元，同比增长12.6%。毛利率为 28.6%，同比下降1.8个百分点；净利率为13.5%，同比下降0.3个百分点。 液压件业务表现亮眼，公司有望受益于工程机械行业复苏 2025H1公司液压件业务实现营收9.9亿元，同比增长51.8%；破碎锤业务实现营收4.2亿元，同比下降17.4%；公 司以硬质合金刀具、工业机器人、RV减速器等在内的其他产品实现营收1.3亿元，同比下降34.3%。 2025年1-10月我国挖掘机（含出口）销量19.2万台，同比增长17.0%；其中内销销量9.8万台，同比增长19.6%； 出口销 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has demonstrated steady growth in both revenue and profit, with a revenue of 2.37 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.5%, and a net profit of 320 million yuan, up 12.6% year-on-year [1] - The hydraulic components business has shown remarkable performance, with a revenue of 990 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 51.8% year-on-year increase [2] - The commencement of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project is expected to further boost demand for the company's products, particularly in rock breaking and excavation operations [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 810 million yuan, a 23.6% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 29.7% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 30.6%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 14.1%, up 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The hydraulic components segment is a key growth driver, with significant revenue growth, while the breaker hammer business saw a decline of 17.4% year-on-year [2] - Other products, including hard alloy tools and industrial robots, experienced a revenue decline of 34.3% [2] Market Outlook - The recovery of the engineering machinery industry is anticipated to drive demand for hydraulic components and accessories, positioning the company favorably as a leader in the hydraulic hammer and components market [2] - The ongoing construction of large-scale hydropower projects is expected to enhance the demand for the company's specialized products [3] Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 419 million yuan, 506 million yuan, and 608 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.50 yuan, 0.61 yuan, and 0.73 yuan [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Senyuan Electric (002358.SZ), does not currently engage in the research and production of harmonic reducers or RV reducers, which are relevant for humanoid robot joints [1] Group 1 - An investor inquired on the investor interaction platform about the company's subsidiary's involvement in developing harmonic reducers and RV reducers [1] - The company responded on November 18 that it does not involve itself in such business activities at this time [1]

Group 1: Manufacturing Innovations - The manufacturing sector in Shaanxi is experiencing significant technological innovation, with companies like Qinchuan Machine Tool Group achieving breakthroughs in core components for industrial robots, transitioning from "none" to "some" and then to "precision" in domestic RV reducers [2] - Zhejiang Geely Holding Group's new vehicle production base in Xi'an is fully automated, with a projected output of over 300,000 vehicles in 2024, showcasing advancements in manufacturing efficiency [1][2] - The emphasis on smart, green, and integrated manufacturing is highlighted as a strategy for enhancing product quality and production efficiency in the face of market competition [1] Group 2: Agricultural Advancements - The agricultural sector in Shaanxi is also embracing technology, with smart greenhouses allowing farmers to control conditions via mobile devices, leading to increased efficiency and quality in tomato production [2] - The kiwi fruit industry in Zhouzhi County is utilizing high-tech sorting lines and pre-cooling ripening techniques to enhance fruit quality and standardization, with an annual production exceeding 600,000 tons and a total output value surpassing 10 billion yuan [4] - The integration of technology in agriculture is transforming traditional practices, contributing to job creation and economic growth in rural areas [2][4] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Direction - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a coordinated development of technology-driven, green, quality, and brand agriculture, aiming to modernize the agricultural sector into a significant industry [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][26]. Core Views - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 21.7% year-on-year, driven by the growth in the new energy gear and intelligent actuator businesses, despite a 4.1% decline in revenue [1][8]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 26.8%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, indicating continuous improvement in profitability due to product structure optimization and cost reduction efforts [2][15]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on global expansion opportunities and product line extensions, with a focus on the automotive sector and high-quality customer resources [3][21]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.1% year-on-year, while the net profit reached 900 million yuan, an increase of 21.7% [1][8]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 2.24 billion yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year but up 3.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 320 million yuan, reflecting a 21.2% year-on-year increase [1][8]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.3%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, supported by ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement initiatives [2][15]. - The company is expanding into non-metal materials, focusing on engineering plastics and composite gear technologies, which enhances its product offerings [2][15]. Future Outlook - The company is pursuing a global strategy, including establishing a manufacturing base in Hungary with an investment of 120 million euros, which is expected to enhance its international market presence [3][25]. - The anticipated growth in the global new energy vehicle transmission gear market is projected to reach approximately 30 billion yuan by 2025, providing significant opportunities for the company [21][26]. Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.28 billion yuan, 1.52 billion yuan, and 1.81 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.51 yuan, 1.79 yuan, and 2.14 yuan [4][26].

Core Insights - Precision reducers are critical components for humanoid and industrial robots, with significant market growth expected by 2030, particularly in the harmonic reducer segment [1][3] - The domestic precision reducer manufacturers are making technological breakthroughs, benefiting from the ongoing domestic substitution process [1][3] Market Overview - The precision reducer market is steadily growing, with the harmonic reducer market in China reaching 2.49 billion yuan in 2023, showing a CAGR of 16.54% from 2019 to 2023 [2] - The RV reducer market is projected to reach 6 billion yuan by 2025, with Japanese companies currently holding a leading position [2] - The global precision planetary reducer market is expected to grow from 929 million USD in 2020 to 1.376 billion USD in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.32% [2] Demand and Technological Advancements - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to exceed 20 billion USD by 2028, creating substantial demand for precision reducers [3] - The estimated incremental market size for precision reducers ranges from 12.6 billion to 28.8 billion yuan by 2030, with harmonic reducers contributing 9 billion to 21.6 billion yuan [3] - Domestic precision reducer manufacturers are narrowing the gap with international standards through independent research and advanced technology adoption, enhancing the trend of domestic substitution [3]

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.97% to 4007.76 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.73% [2][8] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached approximately 2.05 trillion RMB, with over 2800 stocks experiencing gains [2][8] - The leading sectors included non-ferrous metals, electronics, and telecommunications, while the media sector lagged behind [2][8] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index closed up by 2.12%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 2.74% [2][8] - In contrast, all three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down by 0.84%, the S&P 500 down by 1.12%, and the Nasdaq down by 1.9% [2][8] Important News - President Xi Jinping emphasized the high-standard construction of the Hainan Free Trade Port, marking it as a significant step towards expanding high-level opening-up and promoting an open world economy [3][9] - The strategic goal of the Hainan Free Trade Port is to become a key gateway for China's new era of opening-up, focusing on high-quality development and integrating with major economic regions [3][9] Fund Allocation Insights - As of Q3 2025, the total net value of all funds in the market reached 35.16 trillion RMB, with equity and mixed funds accounting for 24.33% of the total [10] - The overall fund position increased to 80.03%, with equity mixed funds at 74.77% and ordinary equity funds at 82.14% [10] - The performance of various fund types varied significantly, with equity funds achieving a return of 24.14% and mixed funds at 20.87% for the quarter [11] Beauty and Personal Care Sector - In Q3 2025, the fund allocation ratio for the beauty and personal care sector decreased to 0.20%, indicating a low allocation level [14][15] - The medical beauty sub-sector remains in an overweight position, while personal care and cosmetics are underweighted [15][16] - The top three stocks in the beauty and personal care sector by fund allocation are Jinbo Biological, Aimeike, and Baiya Shares, although their allocation ratios have declined [16] Precision Reducer Industry - The precision reducer is a core component in the transmission field, crucial for humanoid robots, with significant market potential expected by 2030 [18][21] - The market for precision reducers is projected to grow substantially, with the domestic market for harmonic reducers expected to reach 24.9 billion RMB in 2023, growing at a CAGR of 16.54% from 2019 to 2023 [20] - The domestic production of precision reducers is increasing, with local manufacturers gradually closing the gap with international standards, indicating a strong trend towards domestic substitution [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the precision reducer industry, indicating a strong outlook for growth and investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The precision reducer is a critical component in humanoid and industrial robots, significantly impacting their performance. The market for precision reducers is expected to see substantial growth, particularly driven by the humanoid robot sector, which could generate hundreds of billions in market space by 2030 [2][5]. - The domestic production of precision reducers is on the rise, supported by government policies and technological advancements, leading to an increase in the localization rate of these components [2][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Reducers - Reducers are essential components in the transmission field, responsible for reducing speed and increasing torque, with widespread applications across various industries [14]. - The Chinese reducer market is projected to reach 1,447 billion yuan by 2024, maintaining a growth rate of around 5% [15]. 2. Precision Reducers in Robotics - Precision reducers account for 35% of the cost in industrial robots and approximately 16% in humanoid robots, making them a significant cost component [3][26]. - The precision reducer market is expected to grow steadily, with the harmonic reducer market in China projected to reach 33.2 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 15.47% from 2023 to 2025 [4][32]. 3. Demand Growth and Technological Breakthroughs - The humanoid robot market is anticipated to exceed 20 billion USD by 2028, with a CAGR of 56.99% from 2023 to 2028, indicating a substantial increase in demand for precision reducers [5][62]. - Domestic manufacturers are closing the gap with international standards through technological advancements, enhancing their competitiveness in the precision reducer market [5][54]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic leading companies in the harmonic and precision planetary reducer sectors, which are expected to benefit from the growing humanoid robot market and ongoing domestic substitution trends [5][8].

Core Viewpoint - Hangdong Technology, a leader in domestic RV reducer manufacturing, has faced significant structural risks that have delayed its IPO process despite a strong market position and revenue growth projections [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 22,847.97 million yuan and a net profit of 4,710.45 million yuan, with projected revenue for the first three quarters expected to reach between 31,000.00 million yuan and 33,000.00 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year net profit growth of over 50% [2]. - The sales revenue from RV reducers consistently accounts for over 90% of the company's main business income [2]. Accounts Receivable and Inventory Management - As of June 2025, accounts receivable reached 32,529.81 million yuan, making up 56.00% of current assets, with a declining accounts receivable turnover rate raising concerns about potential collection risks [2]. - Inventory value stood at 10,735.18 million yuan as of June 2025, with risks of inventory depreciation due to market demand fluctuations or product obsolescence [3]. Customer Concentration Risk - The company has a high dependency on major clients, with sales to the top five customers accounting for up to 92.12% of total revenue in 2023, and the largest client, Estun, contributing 58.14% of sales in 2024 [3]. - This customer concentration has led to reduced pricing power and a decline in average selling prices for RV reducers, impacting gross margins [3]. Governance and Related Party Transactions - Concerns have been raised regarding the governance structure, as the controlling shareholder, Double Ring Transmission, holds 67.27% of the company, leading to potential conflicts of interest [4]. - A related party transaction in 2022 involved purchasing assets from the controlling shareholder at an 8.7% premium over market value, highlighting issues with pricing mechanisms [4]. Compliance and Internal Control Issues - The company has faced compliance issues, including failure to fully pay social insurance and housing funds for employees and a minor administrative penalty for non-compliance with fire safety standards [5]. - There are unlicensed buildings on the property, including critical production facilities, which pose a risk of forced demolition despite no recorded administrative penalties [5]. Regulatory Scrutiny - The combination of financial, governance, and compliance risks has led to heightened scrutiny from regulatory bodies, contributing to the delay in the company's IPO approval process [6].

Core Insights - The robot industry in Shaanxi has experienced significant growth, with a year-on-year output value increase of 9.54% in the first three quarters of this year [1] Industry Overview - Shaanxi's robot industry benefits from strong technological resources, a solid industrial foundation, and a broad local application market [1] - Key enterprises in the Shaanxi robot sector include aerospace companies and core component manufacturers, with applications in various fields such as mining, logistics, construction, healthcare, education, and agriculture [1] Innovation and Research - The innovation drive within the Shaanxi robot industry has strengthened, with over 20 research teams focusing on key technologies to enhance industrial upgrades [1] - High-level collaborative platforms include national research centers and university partnerships, contributing to the development of advanced robotics [1] Key Developments - An agreement was signed to establish an Intelligent Robot Key Components Innovation Center, focusing on the research and industrialization of critical components like harmonic reducers and drive motors [2] - The center aims to integrate regional innovation resources to support the high-quality development of Shaanxi's robot industry [2]