恒越基金吴海宁： 把握科技轮动 锚定高景气赛道机遇 ◎记者 朱妍 今年以来科技赛道机会涌现，但细分热点切换较快。部分善于捕捉科技成长投资机遇的基金经理，凭借 敏锐的行业和市场"嗅觉"，以较为精准的节奏实现了较高的投资回报，比如管理恒越优势精选的基金经 理吴海宁。近日，吴海宁接受上海证券报记者采访，复盘了全年的投资逻辑，并分享其2026年的核心布 局方向。 紧跟科技行业最新变化 对于2026年的市场，吴海宁认为依然机遇颇多。在她看来，流动性是关键因素之一，2026年各主要经济 体大概率仍处于降息周期，资金面相对宽松。AI产业趋势周期仍处于上半场，模型预计不断进化，产 业链核心公司的业绩增长确定性较高，她会重点跟踪阿里的AI资本开支变化和模型进展。 同时，她也关注恒生科技指数成分股估值回落后的龙头股机会。据悉，吴海宁近日新任恒越智选科技的 基金经理，该基金投资范围覆盖港股通标的。"该基金可在维持恒越优势精选的投资策略基础上，适时 把握恒生科技未来的投资机会。"她说。 提及2026年的核心布局方向，她表示，主要看好储能、存储芯片、AI算力、半导体设备材料、锂电固 态电池等行业，以及部分具有全球竞争力，有望在国际市场 ...

Group 1 - The potential for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates may strengthen a weak dollar environment, catalyzing a new round of growth in resource commodities, particularly precious metals and copper, which could accelerate the performance of the non-ferrous sector [2] - The upcoming product launches from Apple and META in September, focusing on edge AI and AR glasses, may lead to a sustainable trend in edge devices and AI ecosystems, making the consumer electronics sector, especially the Apple supply chain, worth watching [2] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to reveal three clues: industries with high capital expenditure intensity and signs of marginal reduction; industries showing self-discipline or policy implementation; and industries relying on quotas to continuously improve profit margins [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to maintain a bullish trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently surpassing 3,800 points, indicating that the market may not stop here and could reach new highs [3] - The market's upward momentum is supported by the accumulation of profit-making effects and continuous inflow of incremental funds, validating the logic of upward recommendations based on overcoming loss resistance [5] - The market is likely to experience structural rotation, with active trading and policy expectations providing support, while the focus remains on growth sectors that have shown high prosperity in the first half of the year [6] Group 3 - The current market sentiment is high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and significant upcoming events, leading to increased inflow of incremental funds [7] - The market is characterized by a "healthy bull" environment, where structural rotation among sectors is crucial for sustained growth, with a focus on technology growth sectors [8] - Long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is increasing its presence in the A-share market, contributing to the stability of the current "slow bull" market [9] Group 4 - The market is expected to primarily exhibit a volatile trend, with limited space for strong continuation, indicating a preference for structural rotation rather than a broad market rally [10] - The focus on defensive dividend sectors is increasing, as they may provide stability amid tightening funds and pressure from major shareholders [11] - The "slow bull" market is anticipated to continue its upward trajectory, with a focus on maintaining a balanced approach between financial and technology sectors [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that integrated circuits (chips) have become China's largest export and import commodity, highlighting the country's dependency on high-end chips and the need for domestic production capabilities [4][9][15]. Group 1: Export and Import Analysis - In terms of export value, integrated circuits were the top export item for China last year, surpassing traditional categories like clothing and home appliances [4]. - Conversely, integrated circuits also ranked as the largest import item, indicating a significant trade imbalance where imports exceed exports in both quantity and value [9][12]. - The average price of imported chips is 5 yuan each, while exported chips average only 3.8 yuan, suggesting that China is primarily exporting lower-end chips and is in need of high-end chip technology [15]. Group 2: Semiconductor Industry Challenges - The article discusses the challenges faced by China's semiconductor industry, particularly in high-end chip manufacturing, which requires advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials [17][18]. - The U.S. has imposed restrictions on the export of critical semiconductor manufacturing equipment, such as photolithography machines, which are essential for producing advanced chips [22][27]. - The lack of domestic production capabilities for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and materials is a significant vulnerability for China's chip industry [23][28]. Group 3: Investment and Future Opportunities - The National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (referred to as "National Fund") is focusing on investing in key areas such as photolithography machines and chip design software to address these challenges [30]. - The potential market for high-end chip localization is estimated to be around 3 trillion yuan, indicating a substantial opportunity for growth in the semiconductor sector [33]. - The development of high-end chips is crucial not only for economic and technological advancement but also for military applications, particularly in AI-driven technologies [35][36]. Group 4: Broader Implications - The integration of AI in military applications, such as AI-operated fighter jets, is highlighted as a significant area of development, with the first AI unmanned fighter jet expected to be operational by 2028 [38]. - The advancements in aerospace technology and the potential for AI integration in combat scenarios could create new growth opportunities for both the aerospace and semiconductor industries [39][40].