证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-26 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20260225：从利率曲线"久期分割"看 2026 年货币政策空 间 今年有"降息"的空间和概率，但节奏上需要视经济增长和金融市场形势 综合研判，基准预期为主要政策利率——7 天期逆回购利率或有 1 次"降 息"操作、或有 50bps 左右的"降准"操作，同时保留 2 次"降息"的可 能。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260225：债券"科技板"他山之石：海外科技巨头债券 融资路径演变案例复盘之半导体行业 半导体产业"高资本密集、高技术壁垒、长投资周期"的固有属性，对其 融资体系提出了严峻挑战。一方面，先进制程产线投资动辄千亿，核心设 备价格高昂，且技术迭代迫使企业进行持续性的高额资本开支；另一方 面，从研发到量产的转化周期长、风险高，叠加全球供应链的不确定性， 企业对稳定、长期、且成本可控的资金来源需求较为迫切。审视国内，尽 管 2025 年"债券科技板"已将半导体企业纳入重点支持范畴，但债券市 场的服务能力 ...

1. 东方电气全年业绩预期怎么样？ 截至2026年02月25日，根据朝阳永续季度业绩前瞻数据： 预测营业收入854.00~907.13亿元；预测净利润40.08~50.26亿元。 关注后续财报数据披露后能否超预期，朝阳永续A股季度业绩前瞻数据将为投资者提供业绩鉴定。 2. 东方电气最新卖方观点 东吴证券认为：东方电气作为国内发电装备领域的龙头企业，业务涵盖火电、水电、核电、燃气轮机、 新能源发电等多个领域。公司业绩稳健增长，20-24年营业收入和归母净利润CAGR分别为+17%和 +12%。展望未来，公司在火电、抽水蓄能和燃气轮机领域有望实现10-15%的稳健增长。特别是在燃气 轮机领域，公司已具备自主可控机型，25年成功出海哈萨克斯坦，预计毛利率超30%。在水电、火电、 核电领域，公司市场份额领先，订单充足，抽水蓄能业务收入有望在26-27年加速。风电业务快速发 展，预计26年有望大幅减亏。公司能源装备业务有望持续增长，重型燃气轮机技术实现国产突破成功出 海。 1)燃气轮机业务：公司已具备G15、G50两款自主可控机型，25年成功出海哈萨克斯坦，预计毛利率超 30%。随着产业链和全球售后运维体系的完善，有望 ...

东吴证券研报指出，东方电气前身始建于1958年，是国内发电装备领域的龙头企业，业务覆盖火电、水 电、核电、燃气轮机、新能源发电、EPC总包以及贸易等。20-24年公司营业收入/归母净利润CAGR分 别为+17%/+12%，业绩保持稳健增长。展望十五五，公司作为国内电源装备的龙头企业，火电向支撑 调节电源转型+抽水蓄能进入放量期+自主可控燃气轮机出海，预计公司业绩有望保持10-15%稳健增 长。公司订单持续高增，能源装备业务有望持续增长，重型燃气轮机技术实现国产突破成功出海。预计 公司2025-2027年归母净利润分别为35.0/45.2/54.4亿元，同比+20%/+29%/+20%，对应PE分别为33/26/22 倍。考虑到公司主业增长具备高确定性，燃机轮机出口带来额外增量，给予2026年32倍PE，目标价41.9 元，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the economic pressure exerted by the United States on China over the past decade has failed, as evidenced by China's manufacturing value-added share of the global market increasing from 20% in 2010 to 32% in 2023, creating a tripartite division among developed countries, developing countries, and China [2]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's external dependence has stabilized at 38% since 2016, despite U.S. pressures, indicating a strategic shift from an external to an internal economic focus, which is seen as a necessary choice for a strong economy [3][4]. - Historically, China's economic openness has evolved through three phases: absolute internal circulation (10% external trade dependence from 1950-1980), external circulation dominance (71% peak from 1980-2010), and the current phase of internal circulation [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing Leadership - In the manufacturing sector, China has transitioned from a follower to a leader, with significant advancements in five key areas: shipbuilding, rail transit, power generation equipment, new energy, and automobiles, with the latter producing 30 million vehicles annually, accounting for one-third of global output [4]. - The semiconductor industry has seen remarkable growth, with China's share of global integrated circuit production rising from 1% in 2017 to 40% in 2024, and exports reaching $150 billion, making it the largest export category for China [4]. Group 3: Future Openings - The future focus of China's openness is shifting from "cautious" to "orderly," with an emphasis on increasing the internationalization of the Renminbi, which currently accounts for only 3%-4% of global international clearing despite China’s GDP being 20% of the world [5]. - A key goal is the integration of domestic and foreign trade, aiming for a unified standard for products by 2035, which will enhance resource allocation flexibility in global markets [5]. Group 4: Regional Development - The "Belt and Road" initiative is facilitating a shift from maritime trade dependence to a coordinated land-sea approach, with plans to construct nine land corridors that could enable 50% of China-Europe trade to be conducted via land ports in the future [6].