Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook despite current challenges [8]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a gradual recovery, with expectations for increased policy support to boost confidence and sales [2][3]. - Recent mortgage interest subsidy policies have been implemented in various cities, but their effectiveness is limited due to strict conditions and low subsidy rates [16][17]. - The overall sentiment in the real estate market remains cautious, with significant declines in both new and second-hand housing transactions reported [6][19]. Summary by Sections Mortgage Subsidy Policies - Various cities have introduced mortgage interest subsidies ranging from 1% to 2%, with limited effectiveness observed in boosting sales [16][18]. - The subsidies are often restricted to new purchases made within a specific timeframe, typically 3 to 6 months after the policy announcement [17][21]. - The total subsidy amounts are relatively low, with caps around 10,000 to 40,000 yuan depending on the city [17][18]. Market Performance - The A-share real estate sector has underperformed the broader market, with a weekly decline of 0.41% compared to the benchmark [22][23]. - The credit bond issuance in the real estate sector has seen a net financing deficit, indicating ongoing financial challenges [43][44]. - The REITs market has also faced declines, with the index down 2.60% this week, reflecting broader market trends [45][55]. Transaction Trends - New housing transaction volumes have decreased significantly, with year-on-year declines of approximately 33% reported in both new and second-hand markets [6][19]. - The land supply and transaction volumes in major cities show mixed trends, with a decrease in supply but an increase in transaction areas [5][6]. - The report suggests focusing on three areas for potential investment: commercial real estate, second-hand brokerage, and property services [19].

来源：北京商报 作者：宋亦桐 随着消费贷贴息逐步推广，有关房贷贴息的讨论也逐渐升温，此前部分地区已落地试点，引发市场对全 国性政策落地的预期。这一政策以财政补贴填补息差缺口，让购房者获得直观减负，有效降低入市门 槛、激活住房需求。在银行净息差持续收窄、盈利承压的背景下，若通过财政贴息的方式将让利主体从 银行端转移至财政端，或可在一定程度上缓解房贷业务中"让利购房者"与"保盈利"之间的矛盾，进而一 定程度上保护银行息差水平。 房贷贴息话题升温 自2023年以来，个别地区试点房贷贴息政策。在消费贷财政贴息路径成熟之后，房贷贴息是否也会迎来 统一落地的讨论也有所升温。 从各地此前试点的政策来看，呈现出鲜明的共性特征，即区域限定、首套优先、额度封顶、期限明确， 同时不同城市的政策又根据本地实际情况存在差异化设计。其中，武汉市在2025年9月底发文明确，今 年10月1日至12月31日期间，在东湖新技术开发区、武汉经济技术开发区、长江新区、黄陂区等重点区 域，以商业贷款购买首套新建商品住房的家庭，可按初始贷款金额的1%获得利息补贴，单户最高补贴2 万元，补贴分两年等额发放。 相较于武汉的短期试点，长春作为较早探索房贷贴息 ...

这类试点也引发了市场对于政策全国推广的猜测。 当前，居民收入预期的不确定性增多，高月供对消费影响显著。贴息政策有助于增加居民实际购买力， 释放部分被房贷挤压的消费空间，符合扩大内需的政策方向。 在净息差持续收窄制约LPR下调的大背景下，通过贴息政策，若能不损害银行净息差并助力房贷资产的 稳步增长，银行对此也将"乐见"。 购房者有望成为直接受益者。房贷贴息，可以减轻月供负担，提升可支配收入，缓解月供挤压消费的问 题。 近日，关于房贷贴息政策的讨论热火朝天。 房贷贴息之所以关注度较高，在于市场对其积极作用的合理想象，以及个别地方的率先试水。 事实上，"购房贴息"政策并非新鲜事物，自2023年末以来，杭州、南京、长春、运城、武汉等部分城市 已尝试推出区域性房贷贴息政策，主要通过地方政府提供利息补贴，降低购房者月供压力。 房贷贴息政策积极效用也将不局限于楼市，对于盘活内需大盘，同样具有积极意义。从"十五五"规划建 议到中央经济工作会议，提振消费被确立为推动经济高质量发展的核心战略之一。 通过补贴房贷利息，既能推动房地产市场回稳，也能直击消费者的痛点，达到促消费的目标。 不过，房贷贴息在理想与现实之间，仍有诸多问题需要 ...

"三方共赢"？ 近日，有关买房贴息的讨论再度引发市场广泛关注。 业内认为，从当下行情来看，该政策有一定可能性出台。通过财政资金对购房贷款利息进行补贴，可在不直接压缩银 行净息差的前提下，实现类似降息的效果，缓解当前银行净息差持续收窄的经营压力。借鉴此前财政贴息消费贷的成 功模式，有望实现财政、银行与购房者的"三方共赢"。 事实上，自2023年末以来，多地已试点"购房贴息"政策，通过阶梯式补贴或按贷款比例贴息降低购房成本。短期数据 显示，部分城市政策落地后新房成交环比增长超15%。 （图片来源：中指研究院） 政策效果已初步显现。中指研究院在研报中称，南京市雨花台区2024年6月政策落地，次月新房成交套数、成交面积 环比分别增长17.5%、15.0%；武汉今年9月末政策落地，次月新房成交套数、成交面积环比分别增长18.7%、5.7%。 多地实践已有初步效果 为激活房地产市场，自2023年末以来，杭州、南京、长春、运城、武汉等多地相继推出购房贴息政策，通过财政补贴 部分贷款利息的方式降低购房成本。 第一财经注意到，目前主要有两类操作模式： 一是按贷款金额比例给予固定贴息。例如，长春、武汉按照初始贷款金额1%发放贷款 ...

有券商人士指出，债券持有人同意展期且未要求额外罚息，说明机构对万科长期信用仍存信心，而国资担保方案削弱了违约预期。 午后1点32分，万科A的涨停板被27.38亿元买单一举封死。 这笔巨额资金相当于当日成交额的21%，几乎是以"不讲理"的方式宣告了多头资金的决心。 与此同时，万科H股一度飙涨19%，境内债"22万科04"暴涨42%触发临停，整个房地产板块应声而起，华夏幸福、财信发展等6只A股地产股紧跟涨停，港股 内房股融创、世茂等涨幅均超10%。 | | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 % √ | 现价 | 涨跌 | 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 002285 | 世联行 | +10.07% | 3.17 | 0.29 | | | 2 | 000002 万 科A | | +10.06% | 5.25 | 0.48 | | | 3 | 603506 | 南都物业 | +10.02% | 13.51 | 1.23 | 22 | | 4 | 000838 | 财信发展 | +9.94% | 3.98 | 0.36 | 83 | | 5 | 60 ...

本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 我们此前提到，推动房地产昨日走强的两大因素：一是市场传言万科债务有望获国资支持而平稳落地； 二是传闻全国将出台千亿级房贷贴息政策。但这两项传闻均难经推敲——万科债务问题目前仍未妥善解 决，而房贷贴息政策传言也被过度夸大。 1、两个热点大降温，12月底的机会值不值得抓？ 另一热点板块——人工智能产业链亦从亢奋迅速冷却，整体跌幅超2%，光模块龙头更深度回踩 3%-4%。行业降温受海外消息传染：昨夜美股算力硬件龙头甲骨文盘后暴跌11%，其新兴AI数据中心业 务此前大举烧钱购芯片建数据中心，市场审美转变后，投资者更关注真金白银的现金流回报。 2、美联储开启呵护模式，托底力量有多大？ 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信：miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、两个热点大降温，12月底的机会值不值得抓？ 今天国内市场整体受到压制，除电网设备等零星板块小幅上涨外，几乎所有重要板块均出现回撤，这与 部分热点板块熄火密切相关。首当其冲的便是昨日表现亮眼的房地产板块。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - November inflation data shows CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, meeting expectations, while month-on-month decreased by 0.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year. PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, lower than the expected -2%, but increased by 0.1% month-on-month [5][7]. - The IMF projects China's economy to grow by 5.0% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026 [7]. - The bond market continued its recovery, with long-term government bonds showing significant improvement. The main contract for 30-year government bonds rose by 0.3% [7]. Equity Market Analysis - The market exhibited a rebound after a dip, indicating strong support at lower levels. The computing hardware sector was pivotal in driving the index's recovery, and its core stocks will be crucial for future observations [9]. - The Ministry of Commerce's promotion of the "Fat Donglai model" focuses on the lower-tier market, indicating a shift in retail competition towards refined operations, personalized services, and deep digital integration for high-quality development [10]. - Hainan's free trade port's full island closure and its 14th Five-Year Plan mark a new phase of higher-level openness. Short-term investment prospects include consumer return and policy benefits, while medium-term focuses on modern service industries and unique industrial clusters [10].

据统计，南下资金已连续10日净买入小米，共计84.0743亿港元；连续4日净买入农业银行，共计13.4172亿港元。 连续3日净卖出中芯国际，共计9.7263亿港元。 北水关注个股 美团、阿里巴巴：消息面上，摩根士丹利指出，随着国家市场监管总局总局近日出台了《外卖平台服务管理基本要求》后，预计外卖竞争将在第三季度达到 顶峰，阿里和美团均承诺确保行业内理性竞争。大摩表示，这是在市场监管总局7月就"反内卷"与平台企业召开会议之后的又一举措，并进一步强化了大摩 的观点，即竞争在今年第三季度见顶，并将从第四季度开始逐渐趋缓。 12月11日，南下资金净买入港股7.91亿港元。其中，港股通(沪)成交净卖出3.2亿港元，港股通(深)成交净买入11.11亿港元。 净买入美团-W 12.79亿、小米集团-W 10.09亿、贝壳-W 6.47亿、农业银行3.48亿； 净卖出中国海洋石油5.17亿、阿里巴巴-W 4.17亿、中芯国际4.03亿、中兴通讯3.58亿、华虹半导体2.57亿、建设银行1.96亿、腾讯控股1.15亿。 | -50 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -10 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points but maintained a forecast of only one rate cut in 2026 according to the "dot plot" [1] - Hong Kong stocks opened high but closed lower, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.04% to 25,530.51 points and a total turnover of HKD 182.48 billion [1] - Guangfa Securities noted that Hong Kong stocks are more sensitive to external risks, particularly with an unclear future rate cut path from the Federal Reserve and upcoming unlocks of restricted shares in December [1] Group 2: Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - HSBC Holdings reached a new high, closing up 2.06% at HKD 114, contributing 43.23 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other blue-chip stocks like Hansoh Pharmaceutical and Henderson Land also saw gains, while Alibaba Health and Sands China faced declines [2] Group 3: Sector Performance - Large tech stocks generally declined, with Alibaba down 1.7% and Tencent down 0.25% [3] - The wind power sector remained strong, with Goldwind Technology and Dongfang Electric seeing significant gains [3] - Lithium battery stocks were active, with companies like CATL and Ganfeng Lithium showing positive performance amid rising production costs [4] Group 4: Chip Sector Developments - The chip sector continued to decline, with Huahong Semiconductor down 4.8% and SMIC down 2.26% [4] - The U.S. government allowed NVIDIA to export its H200 AI chips to China, which may boost domestic AI development and increase demand for local chips [5] Group 5: Real Estate Sector Trends - Domestic property stocks generally fell, with Agile Group down 7.58% and Sunac China down 2.22% [6] - Discussions around mortgage interest subsidy policies have increased, which could stimulate potential homebuyer demand if implemented [6] Group 6: Notable Stock Movements - ZTE Corporation faced a significant drop of 13.08% following compliance investigation news [7] - Red Star Macalline's stock fell 14.39% due to unusual trading activity, despite the company stating that its operations remain normal [8] - Lens Technology saw a slight increase of 2.05% after announcing a potential acquisition [9] - Asia Fortune's stock surged 80.87% after announcing a voluntary cash offer for shares [10]

消息面上，12月10日午后，地产股突然拉升，龙头万科A直线封死涨停，港股万科则一度涨超17%。值 得关注的是，近期市场有关房贷贴息政策讨论明显增多。据华夏时报，上海易居房地产研究院副院长严 跃进表示，当前，部分城市已经执行了房贷贴息政策，这一做法也可以降低购房者的房贷压力，但需要 考虑贴息到底是谁在贴，是银行还是财政。不过，若贴息政策能够落地，的确可以激发潜在的购房需 求。 华创证券近期研报指出，寻找地产alpha。当前房地产市场三个问题仍需关注：新房需求中枢下滑；库 存尚未解决；土地财政对经济的拖累，对地产有负面影响，预计2026年房地产销售量价或仍面临一定下 行压力，寻找alpha尤为重要。 内房股普遍回落，截至发稿，雅居乐集团(03383)跌6.06%，报0.31港元；世茂集团(00813)跌4.17%，报 0.207港元；融创中国(01918)跌2.96%，报1.31港元；富力地产(02777)跌1.56%，报0.63港元。 ...