证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-26 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20260225：从利率曲线"久期分割"看 2026 年货币政策空 间 今年有"降息"的空间和概率，但节奏上需要视经济增长和金融市场形势 综合研判，基准预期为主要政策利率——7 天期逆回购利率或有 1 次"降 息"操作、或有 50bps 左右的"降准"操作，同时保留 2 次"降息"的可 能。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260225：债券"科技板"他山之石：海外科技巨头债券 融资路径演变案例复盘之半导体行业 半导体产业"高资本密集、高技术壁垒、长投资周期"的固有属性，对其 融资体系提出了严峻挑战。一方面，先进制程产线投资动辄千亿，核心设 备价格高昂，且技术迭代迫使企业进行持续性的高额资本开支；另一方 面，从研发到量产的转化周期长、风险高，叠加全球供应链的不确定性， 企业对稳定、长期、且成本可控的资金来源需求较为迫切。审视国内，尽 管 2025 年"债券科技板"已将半导体企业纳入重点支持范畴，但债券市 场的服务能力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document doesn't provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The semiconductor industry is of strategic importance, but its financing system faces challenges. The report analyzes the bond financing strategies of three overseas semiconductor companies to provide reference for Chinese semiconductor companies and the domestic bond market [9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Asia: SK Hynix Inc - **Company Overview**: A global leading semiconductor storage solutions provider, focusing on memory chips with products like DRAM, NAND flash, and CIS. In 2025, it became the world's largest DRAM manufacturer and had a strong position in other markets [12][14][15]. - **Development Path**: It went through four stages: "start - up and foundation - building (1983 - 1998)", "scale expansion (1999 - 2011)", "strategic transformation (2012 - 2020)", and "AI - enabled (2021 - 2025)". It achieved strategic upgrades through technology iteration and capacity expansion [16][17][20]. - **Bond Issuance History and Changes**: The bond - issuing mode evolved from "point - like exploratory financing" to "normalized, large - scale, diversified strategic financing". The financing strategy changed in different stages, with the bond financing frequency, term, and coupon rate showing corresponding characteristics [24][31][34]. 3.2 Europe: ASML Holding NV - **Company Overview**: The global leader in semiconductor lithography equipment, with a monopoly in the EUV market. Its products include EUV, DUV lithography equipment, and related services. In 2025, it further consolidated its monopoly position [46][47][48]. - **Development Path**: It went through three stages: "breaking through difficulties (1984 - 2007)", "technological monopoly (2007 - 2013)", and "ecosystem binding (2013 - present)". It achieved a leading position through technological focus and strategic choices [49][50][54]. - **Bond Issuance History and Changes**: The bond - issuing mode evolved from "supplementary financing" to "strategic supporting financing". The financing strategy was adjusted according to different development stages, with the bond financing frequency, term, and coupon rate changing accordingly [57][62][65]. 3.3 United States: Broadcom Inc - **Company Overview**: A global leading provider of semiconductor chips and infrastructure software solutions, with a dual - business pattern of "semiconductor chips + infrastructure software". It ranked 7th in the global semiconductor companies in 2025 [77][79]. - **Development Path**: It went through three stages: "merger and acquisition expansion (1991 - 2013)", "technology integration (2013 - 2018)", and "chip + software ecosystem closed - loop (2018 - present)". It reshaped its business through mergers and acquisitions [81][82][85]. - **Bond Issuance History and Changes**: The bond - issuing mode evolved from "supplementary R & D financing" to "merger - driven large - scale financing". The financing strategy was closely related to the merger and acquisition process, with the bond financing frequency, term, and coupon rate showing different characteristics in different stages [86][93][94].

东方金诚宏观研究 开年信贷季节性大规模投放，金融数据走势较为平稳 事件：2026 年 2 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2026 年 1 月新增人民币贷款 4.71 万亿，同比少增 4200 亿；1 月新增社会融资规模为 7.22 万亿，同比多增 1662 亿。1 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 9.0%， 增速较上月末加快 0.5 个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比增长 4.9%，增速较上月末加快 1.1 个百分点。 基本观点： 总体上看，1 月金融数据比较平稳。其中，1 月贷款季节性大规模投放，同比出现较大幅度少增，主 要原因是当前投资和消费较弱，企业和居民贷款需求仍显乏力，同时，1 月各类稳增长政策落地效果尚不 明显，对贷款需求的撬动和提振作用仍较为有限。1 月社融同比实现多增，主要受政府债券融资拉动，当 月政府债券融资同比较大幅度多增，体现了宏观政策靠前发力、财政资金尽可能提前安排的政策导向。1 月末 M2 增速上行，主要源于非银存款连续大幅同比多增，当前 M2 增速持续处于较高水平。1 月末 M1 增速 回升，背后是上年同期基数较低，前期《保障中小企业款项支付条例》实施对 M1 增速也有一定推升作用 ...

作为对比，喀麦隆的预告计划显示将于2026年2月10日发行1-5年期可同化国债，目标融资2500亿中 非法郎（约合4.5亿美元）。这一数额反映出当局对5年及以下期限债券更强的信心。 值得注意的是，2026年第一季度预告的融资操作中很大部分将通过发行可同化国库券（BTA）实 现。这类债券期限不超过52周，通常用于筹集资金以缓解临时性流动性压力。相反，可同化国债 （OTA）具有更长期限（10年及以上），一般用于项目融资。 （原标题：喀麦隆以首笔15年期债券试水中非国家银行证券交易市场） "投资喀麦隆"网站2月10日报道，喀麦隆公共财政部将于2026年2月17日在中非国家银行（BEAC） 运营的公共证券市场发行15年期可同化国债（OTA）。此次操作被列入BEAC刚公布的喀麦隆2026年第 一季度公共证券发行预告计划。 此举的意义超越了单纯的融资需求：这是自2011年12月中非国家银行公共证券市场启动以来， CEMAC地区首次发行15年期可同化国债。喀麦隆公共财政部旨在通过此操作测试市场对期限超过10年 期债券的吸纳能力——此前该市场发行的国库券期限上限为10年。 由于该市场上认购最踊跃的可同化国债通常是不超过5年期 ...

据悉，谷歌发行的英镑债券品种包括期限为3年至32年以及100年期。瑞郎债券的期限包括3年、6年、10 年、15年和25年。同时，Alphabet同步推进的美元债券发行也迎来市场疯抢，原本计划筹资150亿美 元，最终因认购规模突破1000亿美元，将发行额度上调至200亿美元。 认购火爆 当企业需要融资时，通常有两种选择：发行股票或发行债券。面对持续烧钱的AI投资谷歌选择了后 者。谷歌母公司Alphabet近日启动年内第二次大规模债券发行计划，拟在全球多币种市场布局融资，其 中最引人关注的便是计划在英国市场发行的100年期英镑债券，规模为10亿英镑。这一罕见的"世纪债 券"迅速获得市场响应，认购规模已接近发行额的10倍。这是近30年来科技行业首次涉足百年期债券市 场，上一次"百年债券"还需追溯至1997年的摩托罗拉。 而对于这些公司，重要的资金来源之一正是债券市场。美国银行证券的报告显示，美国科技巨头2025年 发行的公司债券高达1210亿美元，而2020年至2024年期间的平均年发行量仅为280亿美元。摩根士丹利 预计，这波AI驱动的融资热潮可能推动2026年美国高评级公司债发行总量升至2.25万亿美元，创历史 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet, Google's parent company, has initiated a significant bond issuance plan, including a rare 100-year bond in the UK market, to finance its ongoing AI investments, which have been costly and essential for maintaining competitiveness in the tech industry [1][5]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - Alphabet plans to issue a 100-year bond worth £1 billion, which has attracted nearly ten times the subscription amount, marking the first entry of the tech sector into the century bond market in 30 years [1]. - The bond offerings include various maturities ranging from 3 to 32 years, alongside the 100-year bond, with strong demand from UK pension funds and insurance companies [5][6]. - The company has also raised €6.5 billion (approximately $7.7 billion) in the euro bond market, making it the largest borrower in that market by 2025 [6]. Group 2: Market Context and Demand - The demand for Alphabet's bonds reflects a broader trend where tech giants are increasingly turning to the bond market to fund their AI infrastructure, with total spending in this area expected to reach $700 billion this year [8]. - The issuance of long-term bonds is seen as a strategy to lock in low interest rates, despite the inherent risks associated with such long maturities in a rapidly evolving tech landscape [6][7]. - Analysts note that the current AI arms race among tech companies necessitates substantial funding, leading to a surge in bond issuance, with projections indicating that U.S. high-rated corporate bond issuance could reach $2.25 trillion by 2026 [8][10]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - There are concerns among investors regarding the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending, with some analysts suggesting that the sector may have reached a peak in capital expenditures [10]. - Despite the risks, some analysts argue that the shift towards debt financing indicates a transition from a light-asset model to long-term infrastructure investments, which could be beneficial for companies like Alphabet [10][11]. - The strong demand for Alphabet's bonds, particularly the 100-year bond, highlights the confidence of institutional investors in the company's long-term prospects, despite the uncertainties in the tech industry [6][7].

假设债券全部按每股H股49.56港元的初始转换价进行转换，债券将转换成约5909.18万股H股，约占于本 公告日期现有已发行H股数目的36.00%及现有已发行股份数目的3.60%;以及于各情况下约占于债券获悉 数转换后经发行转换股份扩大后已发行H股数目的26.47%及已发行股份总数的3.48%。 本公司及经办人于2026年2月3日(交易时段后)订立了认购协议。受限于认购协议所载的条款及条件，经 办人同意认购及支付或促使认购人认购及支付本公司将予发行本金总额为人民币26亿元的债券。债券可 在条款及条件所载的情况下转换为H股，初始转换价为每股H股49.56港元(可予调整)。 初始转换价为每股H股49.56港元，较香港联交所于2026年2月3日(即签署认购协议的交易日)所报的最后 收市价每股H股49.50港元溢价约0.1%。 天齐锂业(09696)发布公告，本公司和配售代理于2026年2月3日(交易时段后)订立了配售协议，根据配售 协议所列条款并在配售协议所列条件的规限下，本公司同意按配售价发行配售股份，而配售代理已同意 按个别(而非共同亦非共同及个别)基准，作为本公司的代理，以按尽力基准促使承配人按配售价认购配 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of leveraging a multi-tiered bond market in Guizhou to expand direct financing and increase its proportion in the province's financial landscape [1]. Group 1: Advantages of Bond Financing - Bond financing offers unique advantages, including a favorable term structure that allows local enterprises to select financing periods based on their actual needs [3]. - In a low-interest-rate environment, the financing rates for industrial bonds and innovative bonds are generally lower than bank loans, providing a cost advantage [3]. - Bond financing can raise large amounts of capital in a single issuance, showcasing its scale advantage [3]. Group 2: Current Challenges and Recommendations - There is a tendency among stakeholders to use bonds as "risk mitigation tools" rather than "industry support tools," indicating a need for better application of bond financing to support industrial development [3]. - It is recommended that the Guizhou government enhance its organizational and guiding capabilities in utilizing the multi-tiered bond market to activate effective market mechanisms [3]. - Strengthening the cultivation of enterprises in utilizing the multi-tiered bond market is essential, along with leveraging the credit rating advantages of state-owned financing guarantee institutions to support the issuance of industrial bonds, green bonds, and rural revitalization bonds [3].

Core Viewpoint - The training session held in Chenzhou aims to enhance the understanding and application of bond financing among local companies, aligning with provincial policies to support the real economy and improve direct financing channels [1][7]. Group 1: Training Objectives and Structure - The training focuses on addressing the pain points of direct financing development in Chenzhou, utilizing a "policy interpretation + case analysis + interactive exchange" model to empower participants [3][9]. - The session is part of the government's initiative to respond to provincial directives for high-quality development and aims to help local platform and listed companies grasp the latest bond market policies [3][9]. Group 2: Key Takeaways from the Meeting - Participants are encouraged to enhance their political awareness, responsibility, and urgency regarding financing, aiming to broaden channels and reduce costs through bond financing [4][10]. - The meeting emphasizes the need for market-oriented transformation of platform companies, improving governance structures, credit ratings, and project planning capabilities [4][10]. Group 3: Expert Contributions and Participant Feedback - Experts provided valuable insights on the transformation of urban investment enterprises, the latest bond market policies, and practical applications of various bond products [6][12]. - Participants expressed that the training was highly relevant and practical, enabling them to understand bond financing policies and operational processes, and effectively address challenges in their work [6][12].

Core Viewpoint - The bond issuance by securities firms in China has surged significantly at the beginning of 2026, driven by a strong A-share market and increased capital demand for business expansion and transformation [2][4]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Growth - As of January 17, 2026, the total bond issuance by securities firms reached 119.52 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 71.87% [4]. - The number of bonds issued totaled 44, which is an increase of 2 compared to the same period last year [4]. - The bond issuance is characterized by diversification, with both traditional and internet securities firms participating, and various types of bonds being issued, including conventional corporate bonds and perpetual subordinated bonds [4]. Group 2: Drivers of Bond Issuance - The increase in bond issuance is attributed to three main factors: business transformation, policy guidance, and a low-cost financing environment [6]. - The active A-share market has led to a growing demand for capital-intensive business models, prompting securities firms to seek additional capital [6]. - The current low interest rate environment has made bond issuance an attractive option for refinancing high-interest debt and optimizing financial structures [6][10]. Group 3: Policy and Market Impact - Regulatory support has expanded financing channels for securities firms, allowing them to issue bonds aligned with national strategies, particularly in technology innovation [7]. - The trend of bond issuance is expected to continue in the short to medium term, as long as market activity remains robust [10]. - The issuance of bonds by securities firms is likely to enhance market liquidity by providing high-quality assets and facilitating capital flow into the market [10][11]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The bond issuance trend is leading to a "stronger gets stronger" dynamic, where leading firms are better positioned to capitalize on financing opportunities due to their higher credit ratings and larger business scales [11]. - The differentiation among firms is expected to accelerate, with larger firms solidifying their competitive advantages through low-cost debt, while smaller firms may struggle to keep pace [11].