周三，国际可可期货价格跌破3800美元关口，创2023年10月以来的最低水平，市场在全球需求疲软与供应增 加之间寻求平衡。 今年以来，这种热带重要经济作物价格累计下跌近40%，成为表现最差的商品品种。值得一提的是，可可在 2025年刚经历了有记录以来最大的年度跌幅，暴跌48.1%。与2024年5月创下的纪录高位相比，跌幅已经达到 70%。 供需关系失衡是造成本轮可可价格暴跌的主要因素。 大宗商品研究机构StoneX在1月下旬预测，2025/26年度全球可可将出现28.7万吨过剩，2026/27年度过剩量为 26.7万吨。 不断下跌的价格正在对从业者造成伤害。糟糕的仓储条件正在影响可可豆品质，部分农户因担心无法收到货 款，不愿收割成熟的可可豆荚。 为了缓解从业者压力，科特迪瓦于1月29日正式启动一项战略操作，回购自2025年11月以来积压在仓库及全 国各港口的数千吨未售出可可。 加纳本周召开紧急会议，决定加速向农民支付可可豆（收购费用），提高国内对可可豆的加工处理的程度。 加纳可可局正探索新的融资模式，旨在减少对生可可豆出口的依赖，推动可可本地加工，提升行业可持续性 和农民收入，目标是将加纳打造为区域可可加工与 ...

Group 1 - The global cocoa prices have fallen below the purchase price set by the Ghanaian government for its farmers, leading to significant financial burdens for the Ghana Cocoa Board [1] - Current international cocoa prices are approximately $5,100 per ton, equivalent to about 54,570 Ghanaian cedis, which is below the producer price of 58,000 cedis set for the 2025/2026 season [1] - The Ghana Cocoa Board is currently paying farmers 3,100 cedis per bag (64 kg) and is absorbing the gap caused by exchange rate fluctuations through internal subsidies [1] Group 2 - The decline in prices is attributed to changes in supply and demand dynamics, with cocoa prices expected to see a surplus in the 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 seasons due to improved weather conditions in major West African producing regions [2] - The Ghana Cocoa Board aims to support farmers by maintaining purchase prices, providing free fertilizers, and implementing a cocoa traceability system to comply with the EU's upcoming deforestation regulations [2] - The Ghana Cocoa Board faces a difficult decision on whether to maintain current purchase prices under unfavorable international market conditions or adjust them according to falling global prices, impacting farmer welfare and the sustainability of the cocoa industry [2]

Core Insights - Cameroon is experiencing a trade surplus with the Netherlands, Malaysia, and Indonesia, primarily driven by cocoa bean exports [1] Group 1: Trade Partners - The Netherlands, Malaysia, and Indonesia are highlighted as the main importers of cocoa beans from Cameroon [1] - Cocoa and its products account for 84% of Indonesia's total imports from Cameroon, 72% for the Netherlands, and 68% for Malaysia [1]

Core Viewpoint - The cocoa market has experienced a dramatic collapse after two years of strong growth, with prices dropping to $5,997.59 per ton, a staggering 58% decline from the historical high in April 2024 [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The decline in cocoa prices is attributed to weakened demand and improved supply conditions [1] - Global cocoa grinding volumes are expected to decrease year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Europe down 7.2%, Asia down 16%, and North America down 2.8%, indicating significant demand loss in major consuming regions [1] - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) unexpectedly forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 tons for the 2024-2025 season, contrasting sharply with three consecutive years of supply shortages [1] Group 2: Supply Factors - Weather conditions in West Africa, which accounts for over 70% of global cocoa supply, have improved, and strategic price adjustments have stabilized production [1] - Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana have raised farm delivery prices for producers, potentially stimulating an increase in cocoa supply in Q4 [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that cocoa prices will fluctuate between $5,500 and $6,500 per ton in the near term [1] - Factors such as weather impacts, political instability in producing regions, pest outbreaks, or the El Niño phenomenon could quickly reverse the current trend [1] - Industry observers are also monitoring Ecuador's rise as a major exporter, which may challenge Ghana's position as the world's second-largest producer [1]

Group 1 - The Ghana Cocoa Board has paid 20 billion cedis in interest to investors participating in the cocoa bond restructuring plan [1] - The restructuring involves converting existing notes into bonds, primarily affecting commercial banks, aimed at debt repayment and financial strengthening [1] - Market analysis suggests that this move will enhance the Cocoa Board's financing capacity and credit rating, facilitating cocoa procurement for the new production season [1] Group 2 - The Central Bank Governor indicated that the Cocoa Board is expected to secure a cash inflow of 4 billion USD through new pre-sale agreements for cocoa procurement and currency stabilization [1]

Core Insights - Côte d'Ivoire exported 1.613 million tons of cocoa beans by the end of June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [1] - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) raised concerns about the accuracy of the export data, suggesting potential issues with weight measurement or double counting [1] - Cocoa production in Côte d'Ivoire significantly influences global market price fluctuations, with prices experiencing an 8% increase in early June before a subsequent decline due to adverse weather conditions [1] Market Dynamics - Cocoa market prices surged to $9,245 per ton in London and $10,175 per ton in New York in early June [1] - Following strong rainfall, market sentiment shifted, leading to a price drop of 16% in London and 18% in New York by mid-June [1] - By the end of June, market concerns regarding potential cocoa bean production declines eased, resulting in a recovery in prices [1] Industry Position - Côte d'Ivoire is the world's largest cocoa producer, accounting for approximately 40% of global cocoa production [2]

Core Viewpoint - Cameroon is the world's fourth-largest cocoa exporter, with cocoa and its derivatives expected to account for over 20% of the country's export revenue in 2024, exceeding 1 trillion Central African Francs [1][3]. Group 1: Cocoa Production and Economic Impact - Cameroon exported over 180,000 tons of raw cocoa beans last year, representing approximately 7.6% of the global market [1]. - The cocoa cultivation area in Cameroon is about 425,000 hectares, primarily located in seven tropical rainforest regions [2]. - Approximately 40% of the agricultural population in Cameroon relies on cocoa farming, with around 600,000 farmers involved in the cocoa industry, benefiting nearly 6 million people directly or indirectly [3]. Group 2: Industry Development and Government Initiatives - The Cameroonian government aims to increase cocoa production to 284,600 tons in the 2024-2025 season and is implementing various measures to expand cocoa cultivation and develop processing industries [1][6]. - The local processing rate of cocoa is currently below 15%, but the proportion of first-grade beans has increased from 0.13% in 2009 to 5.8% [5]. - The government has raised the purchase price of cocoa by 30% to encourage farmers and has been distributing disease-resistant seedlings and pesticides for over 20 years [6]. Group 3: International Trade and Market Expansion - Cameroon cocoa is expected to benefit from China's zero-tariff policy for cocoa beans and related agricultural products, enhancing export opportunities [7]. - The completion of the Kribi deep-water port, built with Chinese aid, has improved the export capacity for cocoa and other products [7]. - Chinese companies are planning to invest in Cameroon’s cocoa industry, including establishing a chocolate factory and implementing solar drying technology to reduce spoilage [8].

Core Insights - Cameroon is the world's fourth-largest cocoa exporter, with over 180,000 tons exported last year, accounting for approximately 7.6% of the global market [1] - Cocoa and its derivatives are projected to contribute over 20% of Cameroon’s export revenue in 2024, exceeding 1 trillion Central African Francs [1] - The country aims to increase cocoa production to 284,600 tons in the 2024-2025 season through various initiatives [1] Group 1: Cocoa Industry Overview - Cocoa cultivation in Cameroon spans approximately 425,000 hectares, primarily in seven tropical rainforest regions [2] - The main cocoa variety is "Forastero," which constitutes over 80% of production, while the rare "Criollo" variety accounts for only 5% but is highly sought after in the European market [2][3] - About 40% of the agricultural population in Cameroon relies on cocoa farming, with around 600,000 farmers involved in the industry [3] Group 2: Economic and Strategic Importance - Cocoa is recognized as a strategic economic pillar in Cameroon, with the government establishing the National Cocoa and Coffee Office for better coordination [4] - The local processing rate of cocoa is currently below 15%, but efforts are being made to improve this through enhanced agricultural practices [4] - The proportion of first-grade cocoa beans has increased from 0.13% in 2009 to 5.8% recently, indicating improvements in quality [4] Group 3: Government Support and Initiatives - The government has raised the purchase price of cocoa by 30% to encourage farmers and has implemented a 20% export tax reduction for qualifying cocoa products [5] - Initiatives like the "Cocoa Coffee Planting Protection Support Program" have been in place for over 20 years to ensure stable cocoa production [5] - The "Sodecao Strategic Plan" aims to produce 500,000 high-quality cocoa seedlings by 2027 and establish 100 kilometers of planting pathways [5] Group 4: Export Opportunities and International Collaboration - Cameroon is set to benefit from China's zero-tariff policy on cocoa beans and related agricultural products, enhancing export potential [7] - The completion of the Kribi Deep Sea Port has improved export logistics, facilitating quicker access to international markets [7] - Chinese companies are showing interest in investing in Cameroon’s cocoa industry, with plans for a chocolate factory and innovations in drying technology to reduce spoilage [7][8]