Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant surge in the prices of precious and non-ferrous metals in the Chinese commodity market, driven by various factors including supply constraints and macroeconomic conditions [2][3][8]. Price Movements - Precious metals and non-ferrous metals collectively saw a dramatic increase, with platinum futures reaching a record high of 709.85 yuan per gram, marking a monthly increase of 61.9% [3]. - Silver futures rose over 8.5% during the day, closing at 18,658 yuan per kilogram, with a total trading volume of 267.69 billion yuan [5]. - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 8.12%, hitting a new high of 131,000 yuan per ton since November 2023 [6]. Market Drivers - The recent price surge is attributed to a combination of factors, including intensified market conditions for silver and copper futures, and a favorable macroeconomic environment [8]. - A key stimulus was a statement from the National Development and Reform Commission emphasizing the need for better management and optimization in resource-intensive industries, which raised expectations for supply constraints in copper and aluminum [9]. Macroeconomic Influences - The article notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve's potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy is a significant driver, with recent data showing an unexpected rise in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [12]. - Geopolitical tensions and conflicts have also heightened market risk aversion, leading to increased investments in safe-haven assets like gold and silver [12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape for non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, is tightening due to several factors, including mining accidents and declining ore grades, which are expected to lead to a supply shortage by 2025 [15][16]. - The zinc market is also showing signs of recovery, with expectations of increased supply and demand balance, particularly as export opportunities open up [16]. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals industry is experiencing a significant rebound in profitability, with revenues reaching 2.82 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and net profits rising by 41.55% [18]. - Energy metals have shown the most substantial profit growth, with a staggering increase of 385.53% year-on-year [18]. Investment Strategies - Investment strategies should focus on leading companies with strong resource reserves, scale, and integrated supply chains. It is advised to avoid chasing prices and instead adopt a phased approach to building positions [20]. - The outlook for 2026 suggests a potential bull market for non-ferrous metals, driven by a recovering global economy [21].

12月23日，碳酸锂期货价格突破 12万元/吨 关口，当日涨幅超5%，延续了近期的强劲涨势。 | 碳酸锂2605 lc2605 (2025-12-23 15:03:59) 交易所: 广期所 +加自选 | | --- | | 120360 ↑ | | 昨收:114380 最低:113800 卖出价:120360 持仓里:67.16万 日增:一316 6460 5.67% | 回顾来看，12月19日，江西省宜春招标网发布枧下窝锂矿环评第一次公示，根据行业流程，此次 公示后矿山仍需完成多部门审批并取得《安全生产许可证》方可投产，这一进度显著 不及 市场对 该矿短期复产的预期。 作为国内重要锂资源供应来源，枧下窝锂矿的复产节点一直是影响市场情绪的关键变量，此次公示 直接强化了供应端收缩预期，推动碳酸锂期货主力合约当日快速突破 11万元/吨 关口。 面对市场的快速波动，监管层迅速出手降温。 12月19日晚间，广州期货交易所宣布自23日起调 整 碳酸锂期货部分合约交易限额 ，以防范过度波动风险。 但政策调控并未扭转价格上行趋势， 23日碳酸锂价格仍实现超5%的涨幅并突破12万元/吨，可 见市场对锂价上涨的预期较强。 新能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that gold and rare earths may see a resurgence, while it also highlights opportunities for copper investments during market dips [8][13] - The report emphasizes that the deterioration of fiat currency credit and the need for safe-haven assets are driving gold prices upward, with gold stabilizing above $4,000 [8][13] - The upgrade of export controls on rare earths is seen as a strategic catalyst, potentially enhancing the value of the sector [14] - The report expresses confidence in the mid-term rise of copper prices due to fundamental supply-demand changes, recommending investors to look for opportunities in the copper sector [15][16] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - Gold prices are expected to rise due to deteriorating fiat currency credit and increased demand for safe-haven assets [8][13] - The rare earth sector is poised for a strategic boost following the upgrade of export controls, which may lead to higher domestic prices [14] - The copper market is anticipated to experience a mid-term price increase driven by supply constraints and rising demand from sectors like electric vehicles and data centers [15][16] 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry's profitability is under short-term pressure, with costs providing some support for steel prices [17] - Iron and steel production has seen slight declines, with traditional peak season demand yet to be validated [19] - Overall steel inventories are rising, indicating a potential oversupply situation [22] - Steel prices are maintaining a weak and stable trend, with notable price differentiation among various steel products [36] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in August 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 46.54%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt are stable, while nickel prices have shown slight increases [50][51]