印度9月PMI指数较8月的高点回落。受美国对印度征收50%的关税的影响，9月新出⼝订单总量增速为 六个⽉以来最慢，国内新订单有所增加。服务业国际销售的增速放缓⾄2025年3⽉以来的最低水平。 9月PMI较上月高点虽有下滑，但仍表现强劲。印度制造业PMI预览值（新订单、产出、就业、供应商 交货时间和采购库存指数的加权平均值）从8⽉份的59.3下滑⾄9⽉份的58.5。然⽽，PMI反映的经营状 况改善以历史标准来看依然强劲，该指数远⾼于50.0的中性⽔平和54.2的长期平均值。 制造业和服务业经济体的国际销售趋势呈现分化。服务业的增速放缓⾄2025年3⽉以来的最低水平，⽽ 商品⽣产商的增速则有所加快。。 9月23日，印度采购经理人指数报告显示： 印度9月综合PMI产出指数初值61.9，8月终值63.2； 印度9月服务业PMI商业活动指数初值61.6，8月终值62.9； 印度9月制造业PMI初值产出指数62.7，8⽉终值63.7； 印度9月制造业PMI初值58.5，8⽉终值59.3。 服务业与制造业分化，服务业增速放缓至6个月以来最低水平 "制造业PMI指数有所放缓，但扩张速度依然稳健。美国对印度征收50%的关税，可 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, particularly focusing on the implications of the "anti-involution" policy in various industries. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to address issues of low prices and disorderly competition within specific industries, primarily targeting local governments and enterprises. It is not a macroeconomic policy but rather an industry-specific measure [2][3] 2. **Beneficiary Industries**: The industries benefiting from the anti-involution policy can be categorized into three groups: - **Group 1**: Industries with low economic activity but recovering profitability, such as wind power, rebar steel, and cement [2] - **Group 2**: Industries with bottoming fundamentals but strong expectations, including photovoltaic, general equipment, and medical devices [2] - **Group 3**: Industries with high economic activity but lacking real estate policy expectations, such as batteries and medical aesthetics [2] 3. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision**: There is a significant divergence in market opinions regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in September. However, based on economic data, the probability of a rate cut appears substantial [4][11] 4. **Economic Data Insights**: - The second quarter GDP data indicates a slowdown in U.S. economic activity, with internal demand weakening [4] - Personal consumption expenditures increased their contribution to GDP from 0.3% in Q1 to approximately 1% in Q2, while private investment stagnated, negatively impacting GDP [5] 5. **Employment Data**: The July non-farm payroll data showed a significant shortfall, with only 73,000 jobs added, indicating a sharp decline in hiring momentum [6] 6. **Labor Market Dynamics**: Job growth is concentrated in healthcare and social assistance, while goods production and federal government employment are major detractors [7] 7. **Labor Market Indicators**: The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate has increased, particularly among Black workers. Long-term unemployment has risen, but hourly wages have been adjusted upward [8] 8. **Manufacturing and Inflation**: The manufacturing sector has shown signs of decline, with pressures on demand and employment. Inflationary pressures are expected to be manageable in the near term [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Federal Reserve Chair Powell's Remarks**: Powell noted that the weakening supply-demand dynamics in the labor market pose risks, despite a stable unemployment rate [9] 2. **Market Reactions**: The rapid replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA) could lead to rising overnight financing rates, influencing the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [10]