证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 2026年宏观策略 ◼ 分析师：杨芹芹 ◼ SAC编号：S1050523040001 ◼ 分析师：孙航 ◼ SAC编号：S1050525050001 ◼ 联系人：卫正 ◼ SAC编号：S1050124080020 投 资 要 点 核心结论：海外关注联储主席换届和中期选举。美国经济K型分化，非农走弱+通胀降温+鸽派人选，联储预计降息2-3次。 软着陆基准下，美股和美债仍有机会。美股跟踪AI叙事博弈 与轮动，关注小盘科技主题，同时把握保健和金融的性价比；美债收益率震荡下行；美元震荡走弱；黄金短期警惕止盈，中长期空间犹存，持续逢低布局。国内关注十五五开局政策力 度和PPI走势。经济韧性犹存，存量资金活化，库存拐点初现，PPI有望转正等积极信号显现，宏观叙事优化。三大支撑盈利改善，A股走势与基本面关联度提升，重点关注Q2前后的 PPI走势，若能在下半年转正，2026年A股震荡上行可期。风格先成长，再周期，后向消费扩散，关注科技成长、周期反转和消费修复等行业机会。 海外宏观：K型分化，预防降息，波动放大 经济：美国经济K型分化，虽无衰退担忧，但内部分化加剧，AI投资火热与低收入消费 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Warm Winter Consumption Season" event in Pingyi County aims to stimulate consumer spending through a series of innovative policies and activities, integrating commerce and tourism to enhance the local economy [1][3][17] Group 1: Event Overview - The event was held on November 22 in the Yimeng Mountain area, focusing on a "trade-in" model for various consumer goods, including automobiles and home appliances [1] - It is organized by multiple government bodies, emphasizing the theme "Enjoying the Benefits of Langya, Happy Shopping in Linyi" [1][3] Group 2: Policy and Economic Impact - The initiative is part of a broader strategy to boost domestic demand and consumption, featuring strong incentives and discounts for consumers [3][5] - Pingyi County aims to enhance consumer infrastructure and optimize the shopping environment to meet the needs of the public [5][17] Group 3: Consumer Experience and Engagement - The event integrates shopping with tourism, creating immersive experiences for visitors, such as showcasing local specialties and cultural heritage [12][16] - Various exhibition areas were set up, including automotive, home appliances, and traditional crafts, to cater to diverse consumer needs [16] Group 4: Future Directions - The county plans to continue enhancing the integration of commerce and tourism, aiming to release consumer potential and contribute to economic growth in Linyi and Shandong [17]

Group 1 - The establishment of Shanghai Orange Mr. Home Furnishing Co., Ltd. has been registered with a legal representative named Zhong Fazhen and a registered capital of 500,000 RMB [1] - The company's business scope includes the sale of home products, furniture, furniture accessories, cork products, daily wooden products, wooden containers, timber, metal fittings for construction, bamboo products, rattan products, grass and related products, palm products, metal chains and other metal products, building decoration materials, building materials, conference and exhibition services, information consulting services (excluding licensed information consulting services), social and economic consulting services, office services, etiquette services, and personal business services [1]