智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布研报称，看好2026年医药行业投资机会，近期震荡调整后估值已 回落至相对低位，有望在2026年重启升势，投资思路上寻找医药硬科技和细分赛道α，推荐关注创新药 （BIC和FIC管线龙头）、创新器械（影像、高值耗材、消费器械等）、医疗AI方向，关注医药消费复 苏及独立第三方ICL。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 继续深化推进医改，优化集采及医改政策 12月中央经济工作会议如期召开，通稿中医药相关内容："优化药品集中采购，深化医保支付方式改 革。实施康复护理扩容提升工程，加强对困难群体的关爱帮扶。"其中相关投资机会理解可以从以下三 个方面解读。 集采规则优化，国产替代提速 集采提质扩面进入后半程，价格机制与质量监管并重。药品方面，国家集采累计覆盖435个品种，第十 一批聚焦55种临床成熟药物，通过按品牌报量、低价声明、合理性解释和生产质量双重抽检等制度创 新，实现稳临床、保质量、防围标、反内卷，保证中选产品的临床可及性和标准的一致性。整体来看， 随着集采规则持续优化、价格机制更趋合理、质量与供应保障监管均衡重视，国产龙头企业依靠合规和 创新能力，有望实现份额提升及结构性增长。 医改 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has initiated a three-year action plan to promote the integration of medical and elderly care services, aiming to enhance home and community-based care for the elderly, with a target of achieving at least 80% coverage of family doctor contracts for special elderly groups by the end of 2027 [1] Group 1: Policy and Implementation - The action plan will focus on developing home and community-based medical and elderly care services, improving the quality and effectiveness of family doctor contracts [1] - By the end of 2027, the coverage rate of family doctor contracts for elderly individuals with disabilities, high age, or other special difficulties is expected to reach no less than 80% [1] Group 2: Community and Institutional Support - In Chengdu's Wenjiang District, 10 grassroots medical institutions have formed 107 family doctor service teams to provide chronic disease management and vaccination services for elderly residents [4] - In Wanyuan County, Jiangxi Province, six township health centers have been transformed into nursing homes, providing over 500 nursing beds to support elderly care [11] Group 3: Training and Workforce Development - There is a significant shortage of certified elderly care workers in China, with only 500,000 available for a population of over 40 million disabled elderly individuals, indicating a potential demand for over 10 million caregivers [13] - The government plans to expand the training of elderly care professionals and support higher education institutions in establishing related programs, with a goal of adding no less than 30 new programs by the end of 2027 [19] Group 4: Technological Integration - The integration of "Internet + healthcare" and "Internet + nursing services" is being promoted to provide home-based medical services for elderly individuals [20] - Smart wearable devices are being utilized in elderly care communities to monitor health conditions and provide timely medical responses, enhancing the reliability of care services [21][24] Group 5: Rehabilitation and Community Services - The establishment of intelligent rehabilitation centers in rural areas aims to provide convenient access to rehabilitation training for elderly individuals, improving their quality of life [25] - The integration of traditional Chinese medicine and rehabilitation services is being emphasized to enhance the overall care provided to the elderly [27]

Core Viewpoint - The APEC meeting in South Korea will address the significant demographic changes in the Asia-Pacific region, with a focus on transforming demographic challenges into economic opportunities through regional cooperation [1][2]. Demographic Changes - The proportion of individuals aged 60 and above in the Asia-Pacific region is projected to rise from 15.1% in 2024 to approximately 25% by 2050, indicating a significant demographic shift [3]. - South Korea is expected to enter a "super-aged society" by 2024, with over 20.2% of its population aged 65 and older, while its total fertility rate is projected to drop to between 0.72 and 0.75, marking a historical low [2][3]. Economic Implications - The demographic transition presents both challenges and opportunities for economic restructuring, necessitating reforms to foster new growth drivers and sustainable prosperity [3][4]. - Industries such as traditional manufacturing may face pressure to relocate to regions with younger populations, while sectors related to healthcare, elder care, and technology are anticipated to experience significant growth [4][10]. Policy Responses - Various countries are implementing policies to address declining birth rates, with South Korea reporting a 7.4% increase in births in the first half of the year, attributed to government support measures [6]. - Spain has also seen a positive trend in birth rates due to family support policies, including extended parental leave and enhanced childcare services [7]. Regional Cooperation - The integration of artificial intelligence and demographic change discussions at the APEC meeting highlights the need for collaborative solutions to labor shortages and the creation of new economic opportunities [9]. - The diversity in demographic challenges across Asia-Pacific countries can be leveraged for mutual benefits through labor mobility, capital collaboration, and technology exchange [10].

Core Insights - The silver economy in China is recognized as a high-potential sector, but challenges such as policy gaps and market difficulties persist, leading to operational hardships for market players [1][2] - The growth of the silver economy is driven by both policy and market forces, with a significant increase in the number of elderly care-related enterprises and a rise in demand for services like rehabilitation, education, and healthcare [1][3] - The current economic environment presents structural imbalances in supply and demand within the silver market, necessitating a reevaluation of consumer capabilities and willingness to spend [2][4] Current Development Trends - As of December 31, 2024, there are approximately 160,000 elderly care-related enterprises in China, marking a 24.36% increase from the end of 2023 [1] - Key sectors such as rehabilitation care, elderly education, and medical care have seen growth rates of 36.05%, 34.15%, and 31.26% respectively [1] - The demand for elderly-friendly renovations, smart elderly care, and silver tourism is rapidly increasing, with silver tourism accounting for 20% of total national tourism [1] Challenges and Market Dynamics - The silver economy faces a dual challenge of demand contraction and supply surplus, with the aging population not translating into effective demand due to economic constraints [2] - Misconceptions about potential demand versus effective demand hinder the assessment of risks and uncertainties in the silver economy [2] - The phenomenon of elderly individuals being unable to afford services or finding suitable services remains a significant issue [2] Characteristics of Silver Economy Development - The silver economy in China exhibits multi-layered and heterogeneous demand, with varying economic conditions and consumption behaviors across different elderly demographics and regions [3] - By 2035, it is anticipated that China will enter a stage of severe aging, further driving the need for diverse silver economy services [3] Strategic Recommendations - The development of the silver economy should leverage both public and private consumption resources, integrating government support with private sector engagement [6] - Policies should be optimized to facilitate demand release, transitioning from a government-led approach to a collaborative model involving both industry and service sectors [7] - A focus on technological innovation and the establishment of a comprehensive industrial chain is essential for sustainable growth in the silver economy [8][9]