地缘扰动不改创新主线，集采规则持续优化 医药生物 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2025 年 09 月 14 日 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：祝嘉琦 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | | 执业证书编号：S0740519040001 | | 药明康德 | 105.47 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 4.65 | 5.09 | 6.00 | 32.40 | 32.94 | 22.68 | 20.72 | 17.57 | 买入 | | Email：zhujq@zts.com.cn | | 药明生物 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong mid-year performance for 2025, with significant revenue and profit growth driven by its neurovascular and peripheral vascular intervention products [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 482 million yuan, an increase of 31.7% year-on-year [1] - Gross profit reached 343 million yuan, up 31.5%, with a gross margin of 71.2%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Unadjusted profit was 121 million yuan, a 76.0% increase, while adjusted profit was 131 million yuan, up 68.1% [1] - Cash on hand amounted to 2.53 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Product Performance - Neurovascular intervention products generated revenue of 305 million yuan, accounting for 63.3% of total revenue, with a growth of 25.0% [1] - Peripheral vascular intervention products saw revenue of 177 million yuan, a 46.2% increase, raising their revenue share to 36.6% [1] Group 3: Cost Management - The company improved operational efficiency, with sales and distribution expense ratio at 17.7%, down 4.2 percentage points [1] - Research and development expense ratio was 25.2%, down 2.5 percentage points [1] - Administrative expense ratio stood at 11.6%, down 0.3 percentage points [1] Group 4: Market Opportunities - The company has seen significant success in centralized procurement, with notable wins in various product categories [2] - The global neurointerventional market is valued at approximately 7 billion USD, with China accounting for 15%-20% [2] - The global peripheral intervention market is around 10 billion USD, with China representing 12%-15% [2] - The company has a diverse product matrix, with 73 products approved or in development, and 22 products commercialized in 27 countries [2] Group 5: International Expansion - The company is expanding its international business, particularly in Europe and emerging markets like Brazil, India, and South Africa [2] - Overseas sales revenue reached 15.72 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.8% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The medical device sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by strong performance in the medical device ETF and favorable regulatory developments [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI All Share Medical Device Index (H30217) rose by 2.6%, with notable gains from stocks such as Sainuo Medical (688108), Zhonghong Medical (300981), and Lide Man (300289) [1]. - The medical device ETF (159883) increased by 2.67%, reaching a total share of 5.954 billion, making it the largest among comparable funds [1][2]. - In July, the ETF saw a net subscription of 112 million shares, with a total increase of 1.94 billion shares, marking a record high [1]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - Recent measures from seven regulatory bodies aim to promote the high-quality development of commercial health insurance and the biopharmaceutical industry, enhancing the payment mechanisms for innovative medical devices [3]. - The National Medical Insurance Administration has emphasized support for genuine innovation in medical devices, rejecting superficial or redundant innovations [3]. Group 3: Pricing and Competition - The National Medical Insurance Administration has clarified that procurement will no longer solely focus on the lowest bid, requiring companies to justify their pricing, which may stabilize prices and profit margins in the medical device sector [4]. - The new procurement rules are expected to enhance the competitive advantage of leading companies with strong product performance and brand recognition [4]. Group 4: Key Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI All Share Medical Device Index accounted for 46.92% of the index, with major players including Mindray Medical (300760) and United Imaging Healthcare (688271) [5].

Group 1 - The new round of drug procurement rules has been optimized to prevent excessive competition and ensure reasonable price reductions, with the lowest bidding companies required to justify their pricing [1][2] - The optimization of procurement rules reflects a systematic adjustment in high-value consumables procurement policies, moving away from the previous focus on low-price bidding [2] - The first round of coronary stent procurement significantly impacted the performance of winning companies, but the second round introduced a more moderate approach, allowing companies to bid below a set maximum price [2] Group 2 - Bluefan Medical, a leading company in cardiovascular high-value consumables, is expected to achieve better performance in its cardiovascular business due to the "anti-involution" policy changes [3] - The company reported a sales revenue exceeding 690 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a growth of over 20% compared to the same period last year, alongside a reduction in sales and management expense ratios [3] - Bluefan Medical has invested a total of 2 billion yuan in research and development from 2018 to 2024, leading to significant product approvals and market growth, including a 120% increase in sales of its innovative drug-coated balloon [4]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive" for the next 12 months, indicating an expected increase in performance relative to the CSI 300 index [8][58]. Core Insights - The report highlights the optimization of centralized procurement rules, which aims to stabilize clinical practices, ensure quality, and prevent excessive competition in the pharmaceutical sector. This is expected to benefit pharmaceutical and medical device sectors [6][57]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of the commercial insurance innovative drug catalog and the performance of companies exceeding expectations in their semi-annual reports. It suggests focusing on pipeline realization, performance growth, and business collaborations within the innovative drug and related industry chain [6][57]. - The report notes significant developments in the pharmaceutical industry, including the approval of new drug indications and strategic partnerships for drug development, which are expected to enhance market opportunities [19][29][34]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the employee medical insurance personal account mutual aid involved 200 million people, with a total mutual aid amount of 26.177 billion yuan [5][18]. - The Shanghai Pudong New Area government has issued a plan to enhance the functions of the biopharmaceutical industry park from 2025 to 2027, aiming for an industry scale exceeding 500 billion yuan by 2027 [18]. - The report mentions the approval of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide for treating chronic kidney disease in China, which is a significant advancement in the industry [19]. Market Performance - During the week of July 18-24, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.94%, and the pharmaceutical and biological sector also saw a rise of 2.94%. All sub-sectors experienced growth, with medical services leading at 6.16% [6][44]. - As of July 24, 2025, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the pharmaceutical and biological industry was 30.59 times, with a valuation premium of 155% relative to the CSI 300 index [6][48]. Company Announcements - Lizhu Group's clinical trial for a humanized monoclonal antibody injection reached its primary endpoint, indicating progress in its development pipeline [29]. - WuXi Biologics and WuXi AppTec both issued positive profit forecasts, with expected revenue growth of approximately 16% and over 60%, respectively, for the first half of 2025 [32][33].