华福证券 2025 年 08 月 25 日 策 略 研 究 医疗与消费周报——处方药销售洞察：精准把控 灵活应对 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业有 5 个录得正收益，表现良好。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、根据《2025 年 6 月处方药销售全景洞察：把握机遇与应对挑战》 报告指出，处方药销售区域差异显著，东部沿海及人口密集省份订单 量高。消费者中女性占比提升，购药时段集中在上午 9 - 11 点等时段。 慢性病用药需求突出且稳定，药品规格采购出现变化等。处方药市场 机遇与挑战并存，药企需要精准把握市场动态，深入分析消费者需求 和市场趋势，优化产品研发、生产和销售策略，以在复杂的市场环境 中脱颖而出。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、 亿欧智库《2025 年 6 月处方药销售全景洞 察：把握机遇与应对挑战》——2025.8 风险提示 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 | 1 医疗新观察 | | --- | | 2 医药板块行情回顾 (8.18-8.22) … | | ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the conference is "Rapid Transformation, Crossing New Cycles," focusing on the future development of the health industry driven by five major forces: AI revolution, breakthroughs in life sciences, deepening medical reform, the rise of the silver economy, and accelerated internationalization [1] - The Chinese pharmaceutical terminal market is currently undergoing adjustments, with an expected annual market size decline of 2.9%. Sales in hospital and pharmacy channels are projected to decrease by 5.7% and 0.4% respectively, while e-commerce growth has slowed to 5.8% from double digits [1][2] - The long-term positive trend in the market remains unchanged, driven by continuous health demand growth, a rational payment structure, and innovation upgrades in drug supply [1] Group 2 - AI development and application are seen as the foundational basis for industry transformation, significantly improving the efficiency of innovative drug research and development, precise disease diagnosis, and comprehensive health management [2] - The timeline for innovative drug development has been drastically reduced from 15 years to between 1.5 to 3 years, with costs decreasing to 1/100 of traditional methods. This positions China as a global leader in innovative drug development [2] - By 2035, the Chinese innovative drug market is expected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan, accounting for approximately 15% of the global market, with over 40% of revenue coming from overseas markets [2] Group 3 - The silver economy is projected to become a significant growth market, with the Chinese silver market expected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2025, of which 35% will be in health care [2] - The shift in health demand from "survival-type" to "quality-type" is driven by the 300 million "new retirees" [2] - The conference, hosted by Zhongkang Technology, has been held for 18 consecutive years, featuring multiple forums and attracting over 60,000 participants [3]

Group 1 - The recent publication of the "Opinions on Further Guarantee and Improve People's Livelihood" emphasizes the expansion of social security coverage and support for low-income groups through ten key measures [1] - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" will provide annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old, in line with legal regulations [1] - The expected average life expectancy in China is projected to reach 79 years by 2024, with a consistent increase of one year every five years from the "12th Five-Year Plan" to the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 2 - Employment is highlighted as the most fundamental aspect of people's livelihood, with over 12 million new urban jobs created annually since the "14th Five-Year Plan," significantly supporting economic development and improving living standards [2] - The overall effectiveness of employment policies is being enhanced through measures such as reducing unemployment and work injury insurance rates and conducting large-scale vocational skills training, with over 200 million skilled workers and more than 60 million high-skilled workers in the country [2] Group 3 - Education is prioritized in national development strategies, with a consolidation rate of over 95% for nine-year compulsory education expected by 2024, aligning with or exceeding the average levels of middle and high-income countries [3] - The healthcare system is being improved to address issues of accessibility and affordability, with a basic medical insurance coverage rate stabilizing at 95% and the establishment of 114 new national regional medical centers since 2021 [3] Group 4 - The development of elderly care services and childcare integration is being actively promoted, with a focus on increasing the supply of inclusive childcare services [4] - The proportion of nursing care beds has risen to 64.6%, with approximately 190 million people covered by long-term care insurance, indicating a significant enhancement in elderly care infrastructure [5]

Core Viewpoint - Beijing's healthcare reform, inspired by the Sanming model, has shown significant results, including a 12.8 percentage point increase in medical service revenue share and the adjustment of over 8,800 medical service prices [1][2]. Group 1: Efficient Coordination - The establishment of a strong leadership system for the coordinated development of healthcare, medical insurance, and pharmaceuticals ("three medicines") is a core experience from the Sanming reform [2]. - A unified management structure led by a senior city official ensures policy coordination, information sharing, and regulatory collaboration across all 16 districts in Beijing [2]. - A dynamic adjustment mechanism for medical service prices has been implemented, with nearly 400 items adjusted regularly and 134 new items added, leading to a significant increase in medical service revenue [2]. Group 2: Incentivizing Healthcare Personnel - Salary reform is a key aspect of the healthcare reform, aimed at motivating healthcare workers while maintaining the public nature of public hospitals [3]. - A performance-based salary management mechanism has been established, particularly supporting underdeveloped specialties like pediatrics, ensuring their salaries are at least 1.2 times the average salary of the institution [3]. - The focus on optimizing salary structures has resulted in fixed salaries constituting over 50% of total compensation for healthcare workers, providing them with stable income and enabling better patient service [3]. Group 3: Balanced Resource Allocation - Beijing is promoting balanced healthcare resource allocation through three main strategies: "decongestion, filling gaps, and medical alliances" [4]. - The city has successfully decongested over 2,700 hospital beds from central urban areas, with the number of hospital beds per thousand people in new urban areas increasing by approximately 14% since 2020 [4]. - Projects aimed at enhancing pediatric, mental health, traditional Chinese medicine, and infectious disease resources are underway to better match healthcare supply with public health needs [4].

Core Viewpoint - Beijing has upgraded the "Sanming model" of medical reform to the "Beijing plan," focusing on a government-led approach, public investment, price and salary reforms, resource allocation, and information technology support [1][2][10] Group 1: Government-led Coordination - The Beijing government has established a centralized decision-making body for "three medical" coordination, with a unified leadership structure overseeing medical, insurance, and pharmaceutical sectors [2][3] - Monthly meetings are held to monitor key tasks in the "three medical" fields, enhancing policy coordination and regulatory collaboration [1][2] Group 2: Resource Allocation and Infrastructure - Beijing is addressing the uneven distribution of medical resources by promoting the relocation of quality medical services from central urban areas to suburban regions, with over 184 billion yuan invested in major projects [4][6] - The number of hospital beds per thousand people in suburban areas has increased by approximately 14% from 4.6 to 5.3 beds since 2020 [4] Group 3: Financial Support and Pricing Reforms - The government has committed over 60 billion yuan annually to public health services, with 25.6% of this funding directed towards grassroots healthcare institutions [6][7] - A dynamic pricing adjustment mechanism has been established, resulting in a 12.8 percentage point increase in medical service revenue share compared to pre-reform levels [7] Group 4: Strengthening Grassroots Healthcare - Beijing has implemented measures to enhance the capabilities of community health services, including increasing personnel and improving infrastructure, with over 23 billion yuan invested since 2023 [8][9] - The city has developed the "Jing Tong" service platform to streamline medical processes and improve patient access to healthcare services [9]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.704 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 13.84%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 438 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, while the non-net profit increased significantly by 1365.5% to 403 million yuan due to increased revenue and profit from the pharmaceutical industrial sector and a decrease in overall expenses [1] Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industrial Sector - The company's core products include cardiovascular drugs and respiratory disease medications, with higher demand observed in the first and fourth quarters due to seasonal factors [2] - In Q1 2024, there was a significant increase in the demand for respiratory disease medications due to a surge in viral flu cases, alongside a rise in cardiovascular drug demand during the spring [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Commercial Sector - The pharmaceutical commercial sector faced revenue impacts due to the increasing number and amount of products subject to national centralized procurement, leading to price reductions [3] - Hospitals are actively reducing procurement scales and amounts in response to ongoing medical reforms, resulting in decreased delivery orders for the company [3] Group 3: Traditional Chinese Medicine Trade Sector - The company anticipates a significant price correction in traditional Chinese medicine after a period of price increases, leading to a strategic reduction in non-productive trade activities to mitigate high-level risks [3] - In Q2, the company increased revenue by strategically selling part of its inventory of traditional Chinese medicine in anticipation of a price decline in the latter half of the year [3]

Core Points - The conference "2025 China Hospital Conference and Conduct Construction Conference" was held in Beijing, focusing on high-quality development in hospitals and aligning with the National Health Commission's work deployment [1] - Emphasis on the role of technological innovation in supporting high-quality development in healthcare, and the importance of creating a clean research environment [3] - Public hospitals are urged to enhance their educational roles and responsibilities, ensuring they act as the mainstay in safeguarding public health [3] Group 1 - The implementation of the Healthy China strategy and deepening medical reforms require medical institutions to improve service quality, strengthen discipline construction, and enhance talent training [5] - Hospitals should focus on providing high-quality, compassionate services while improving management and supporting grassroots healthcare [5] - The China Hospital Association released the "China Hospital Quality Safety Management Group Standards" and signed strategic cooperation agreements with various organizations to integrate resources for high-quality development [7] Group 2 - The conference featured a variety of sessions, including an opening ceremony, main venue discussions, specialized meetings, and 19 sub-forums, with participation from 1,500 representatives and experts [7] - Discussions centered on hospital management, smart healthcare, conduct construction, and discipline development, aiming to share innovative practices and thoughts [7]

Core Insights - The National Health Commission of China is promoting the experience of the Sanming medical reform, with a focus on improving the efficiency of healthcare reforms through coordinated leadership and collaboration among relevant government departments [1][2] Policy Support - Over the past five years, Shandong province has seen an average annual increase of 25% in fiscal subsidies to public hospitals [1] - Local governments are implementing dynamic adjustments to medical service prices, with over 2,300 items set for adjustment in 2024, leading to an optimized revenue structure for public hospitals [1] - Jinan city reported an average annual increase of 13.4% in fiscal subsidies to public medical institutions [2] - Qingdao city has seen an average annual increase of 15% in fiscal input for public hospitals since 2019, with a 5.1 percentage point increase in medical service revenue share and a 6.8 percentage point decrease in drug and consumable costs [2] Resource Allocation and Accessibility - A key focus of the current medical reform is to enhance the accessibility of quality medical resources, aiming for a hospitalization rate of 84.4% within county areas by 2024 [2] - The provincial government is promoting grassroots capacity-building actions, having renovated over 10,000 village clinics and encouraging rural doctors to obtain medical licenses [2] - The establishment of 2,420 medical expert stations and a 15-minute health service circle has been achieved, with grassroots medical treatment accounting for 63.3% of total diagnoses [2] Specific City-Level Initiatives - Jinan city has created six tightly-knit urban medical groups and ten county-level medical communities, enhancing the integration of healthcare services [3] - Qingdao city has innovated in the construction of tightly-knit medical alliances, optimizing the distribution of medical resources based on population and service capabilities [3]

Core Insights - The Shandong Province is implementing significant healthcare reforms aimed at enhancing public hospital services and ensuring accessibility for residents [1][2][4] Group 1: Healthcare Coverage and Accessibility - Shandong has achieved full coverage of tertiary hospitals, with 78 county hospitals meeting the service capacity standards equivalent to tertiary hospitals [1][4] - The target for inpatient care within counties is set at 84.4% by 2024, aiming to resolve general illnesses at the city and county levels [1][4] Group 2: Financial Investments and Cost Reductions - Over the past five years, the average annual increase in financial support for public hospitals has been 25% [2] - The implementation of centralized procurement for 824 types of drugs and 40 categories of high-value medical consumables has led to significant price reductions, with some items seeing price drops of up to 75% [2] - In Jinan, the average price reduction for drugs post-procurement exceeded 60% [2] Group 3: Service Price Adjustments and Optimization - Jinan has dynamically adjusted medical service prices for 4,850 items since 2022, increasing prices for 2,004 items reflecting technical labor value while reducing prices for 2,199 inspection and testing items [3] - The city has also introduced new technology projects, enhancing service offerings [3] Group 4: Integrated Healthcare Networks - Shandong has established a network of 866 national and provincial clinical key specialties, forming specialized alliances extending to all counties [4] - A remote medical collaboration network covering over 2,600 medical institutions has been set up, facilitating multidisciplinary consultations and remote diagnostics [5] Group 5: Patient Care and Community Services - The province has achieved full coverage of elderly home medical services across all 16 cities, implementing a "tidal" outpatient management system to optimize medical staff allocation based on patient needs [6] - A shared platform for mutual recognition of inspection and testing results has been established, with 831 medical institutions participating and 429 mutual recognition projects in place [7]

青侨阳光医药投资 - 行业思考 1 标准化程度和医生依赖度的差异， 是"药VS械VS院"业务不同特性的重要来源 "医药"里的"医"主要指医疗器械和医疗机构，"药"主要指中药、化药、生物药等药品。从这点来说，"药品、 器械、医院等医疗机构"是医药行业最核心3大业务类别。除此之外的医药细分，多数可以看成是这3类业务的 配套产业，比如原料药、CRO、CMO等可以看成是药品的配套，分销商、药店等可以看成是药品和器械的配 套，三方诊断、医疗信息化等可以看成是医疗机构的配套。 从欧美日等发达国家过去几十年的历史经验看，在医药行业相对成熟的主流经济体中，"药"的资本回报率最为 可观，"械"的资本回报率也相当优秀，但"院"的资本回报率比较糟糕。 比如有很多人统计过美股不同行业的历史ROIC，其中： 这与我们的直觉感受是一致的，虽然药品和器械占整个医药行业总盘子不到20%，但我们闭着眼睛也能数出几 十个声名显赫、历史回报强劲的来自美国、欧洲、日本的制药企业和医疗器械企业；但对于占行业总盘子超 60%的医疗服务业务，著名的海外上市医院集团我们可能一只手的指头都数不完。 为什么会这样？一个重要原因是这 三类业务在标准化程度和医生依 ...