离岸人民币兑美元升破6.97，最高升至6.9678，创2023年5月以来新高。 | VV | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | 6.97381 | 前收 6.98000 开盘 | | | | | -0.00619 | 菜品 6.97392 -0.09% 买入 | | | | | 最高 | 6.98173 今年来 -0.02% 20 日 | | | | | 最低 | 6.96870 10 日 -0.85% 60 日 | | | | | से स्थि | 五日 日K 月K | | | 白菜 | | 叠加 6.99130 | | | 均价: -- | | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | 6.98000 | | | 0.00% | 20.10 40 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | | | | | 20:19 6.9 | | 6.96870 | | | -0.16% 20:19 6.9 ...

来源：兴证策略张启尧团队 引言：近期人民币加速走强，新一轮人民币升值周期启动愈发成为市场共识。为何近期人民币升值加速？后续人民币升值还有哪些支撑，如何影响市场？ 历史上的人民币升值周期，A股与港股如何表现？如何把握新一轮人民币升值周期的配置机会？详见报告： 一、为何近期人民币升值加速？ 近期人民币加速升值引发市场关注。我们认为，背后主要反映的是美元再度走弱叠加年末"结汇潮"带动下，人民币相对其他非美货币的"补涨"，与市场对 人民币升值的一致预期形成共振。 首先，随着11月下旬市场美联储降息预期下修到位、未来宽松指引逐渐明朗，美元再度走弱带动人民币加速升值。10月美国政府停摆对于TGA账户的"抽 水"、叠加数据空窗期下美联储降息表态趋于谨慎，曾一度引发市场流动性预期收紧，进而带动美元指数持续走强，成为当时美元兑人民币汇率继续下行 的掣肘。而11月下旬以来，随着美国政府"开门"后流动性释放、12月美联储降息并开启技术性扩表，显著改善此前偏紧的流动性环境，叠加关键数据验证 以及特朗普对于"影子主席"的表态进一步为后续宽松打开想象空间，美元指数见顶回落、快速下行破98，是近期人民币加速升值的重要推动。 二、后续人民币 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Nanjing Intermediate People's Court reported a positive trend in labor and personnel dispute cases for 2024, with a decrease in both incoming and unresolved cases, attributed to proactive measures in dispute resolution [1][3]. Group 1: Case Statistics - The number of newly filed first-instance labor and personnel dispute cases in Nanjing was 11,408, representing a year-on-year decrease of 9.5% [3]. - The number of collective dispute cases filed was 1,723, showing a significant year-on-year decrease of 39.96% [3]. - A total of 25,359 labor and personnel dispute cases were effectively resolved through joint mediation centers, involving 25,490 individuals and an amount of 57,148.49 million yuan [4]. Group 2: Dispute Resolution Mechanisms - The decrease in cases is attributed to grassroots courts focusing on preemptive measures and multi-faceted dispute resolution, enhancing pre-litigation mediation efforts [3]. - The implementation of the litigation representative system in collective disputes has improved trial efficiency and reduced processing time [3]. - The courts emphasized the importance of addressing the root causes of disputes and promoting mediation and reconciliation as primary methods for conflict resolution [4]. Group 3: Typical Cases - A notable case involved a tourism development company that owed wages to over 30 employees, where the court facilitated the selection of representatives for litigation, leading to a comprehensive resolution [3]. - Another case highlighted the balance of rights between workers and employers, where a technology company was found to have unlawfully terminated an employee for ambiguous rules regarding attendance [4]. - A case involving an elderly worker who suffered an injury while working was ruled in favor of the employee, affirming the legal protection of labor rights for older workers [4].

Summary of the Conference Call for Puliang Software Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Puliang Software, which operates primarily in the software development sector, focusing on digital transformation and intelligent upgrades for large enterprises, particularly in the petrochemical, construction, and financial industries [3][5][19]. Key Financial Performance - In 2024, Puliang Software achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 121 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.06% [3]. - The company's operating revenue reached 836 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [3]. - The revenue composition includes: - Petrochemical industry: 445 million yuan, accounting for 53.18% of total revenue [3]. - Construction and real estate: 153 million yuan, with a growth of 19.67%, representing 18.26% of total revenue [3]. - Coal and electricity: Revenue increased by 29.98% [3][4]. Strategic Focus and Market Opportunities - Puliang Software is focusing on strategic clients and core business areas, particularly in the digital transformation of large group enterprises [5]. - The company is expanding its client base in the construction and coal power sectors while maintaining a strong position in the petrochemical industry [5]. - The company has successfully implemented AI applications in shared services and think tank areas, enhancing the feasibility of AI applications [11]. Research and Development (R&D) Investments - R&D expenses totaled 46.99 million yuan in 2024, with a total investment of 108 million yuan after capitalizing R&D costs, aimed at improving competitiveness and operational efficiency [6]. - The company plans to maintain R&D investment at 14% to 15% of revenue over the next three years [18]. Challenges and Responses - The company faces challenges with declining gross margins due to extended project delivery cycles and increased market competition [7][17]. - Measures to counteract these challenges include the application of new technologies, development of competitive products, and optimization of organizational structure [7]. Future Outlook - For 2025, Puliang Software anticipates a clearer demand for its innovative business (信创) and intelligent solutions, with a focus on maintaining steady growth [9][10]. - The company aims to enhance cash flow management and reduce accounts receivable, which increased from 510 million yuan in 2023 to 580 million yuan in 2024 [12]. Sector-Specific Insights - The construction and real estate sector is expected to remain stable, with no significant growth or decline anticipated in 2025 [20]. - The financial sector, impacted by regulatory policies, is expected to recover and grow in 2025, with ongoing efforts to optimize business models [21][22]. Strategic Client Development - Puliang Software has expanded its strategic client base from four to eight major clients, focusing on long-term partnerships and stability in existing relationships [23]. Conclusion - Puliang Software is positioned to leverage its strengths in digital transformation and AI applications while navigating challenges in gross margins and sector-specific dynamics. The company's strategic focus on R&D and client relationships is expected to drive future growth and stability.