分析师：柏逸凡 登记编号：S0890524100001 分析师：程秉哲 登记编号：S0890522110001 投资要点 报告统计时间为2025.07.07-2025.07.11。 期权市场方面， 从隐含波动率水平来看，上证50与中证1000隐波呈上涨趋势，同时中证1000的隐 含分红率与看跌期权偏度开始下降，这说明经过市场在大盘突破3500点关键点位后整体情绪有所 提振。 可转债市场方面， 估值端呈现放量上涨的势头，百元转股溢价率再度升高，接近5月初峰值，转债 市场成交额也显著放大。不过低转股溢价率转债的占比却有所抬升，一定程度上体现了市场的分 歧。信用利差在快速收窄后维稳。 风险提示： 本报告根据历史公开数据及定期报告整理，存在失效风险，不代表对基金未来资产配 置情况的预测，不构成投资建议；报告研究依赖数据可靠性、研究假设和估算方法，结果可能存 在偏差。 01 市场行情回顾 本报告统计时间为2025.07.07-2025.07.11。 冲高之后，短期或有分歧。短期内冲高主要受大金融以及去产能相关行业带动，指数强势，小盘 以及前期热点题材跟随意愿有所减弱。周五沪指放量长上影线，显示尽管市场情绪偏强，但指数 ...

分析师： 蔡梦苑 登记编号：S0890521120001 分析师：郝一凡 登记编号：S0890524080002 分析师：刘 芳 登记编号：S0890524100002 | | 宏观主线梳理 | | --- | --- | | 海外宏观 | 美国经济初代防名自边际趋弱,大而美法案将加剧财政示字压力 | | | > 劳动力市场韧性仍存,通胀风险相对可控 | | | ◆ 6月新增非农就业13.9万人持产预期,不过结构性风险显现。5月美国通胀显示关税带来的价格风险相对可控,不过居民可选消费 | | | 需求下降。预计6月开始,关税对价格的冲击可能会有所体现。但程度或低于市场预期。我们预计芳经济数据不出现巨大的变化, | | | 9月之前美联储仍将按兵不动。 | | | > 在美国关税暂缓期7月到期后，美国大概率与多数国家达成部分贸易协议或延期，对少数国家实施关税 | | | ◆ 参议院通过的法案版本带来更高的财政赤字,可能进一步推动国债收益率上行。 | | | ◆ 7月9日关税豁免到期后,美国大概率将对大部分国家延长协议或达成部分贸易协议,可能会对少数国家实施关税。 上半年经济总量韧性较强,政策或处于观察窗期 | ...

宠粉节超宠你！ 持有人参与，100%有奖！昨日又新增 2人抽中 Labubu，大疆口袋相机和金元宝 都还有余位噢！ 国联民生证券的报告中提到，红利资产"缩圈"情况已经来到历史最极端的情况。因为如果分别计算高股息 资产与各类主流增强方向在过去2个季度的表现后可以发现，无论是一季度还是二季度，只配置银行行业 的高股息标的，可能是高股息各类配置方向中收益最高的。 另外，华宝证券的报告（发布于2025年6月5日）中提到，微盘股出现了"三高"，分别是微盘股指数创历史 新高、微盘股成交占比连续上升至高位以及IM年化贴水率持续处于高位。 兴业证券的报告中提到，其基于银行与中证红利滚动40日收益差构建"红利缩圈指标"，以及基于微盘与国 证2000滚动40日收益差构建的"小微盘缩圈指标"近期均来到历史高位，表明哑铃两端"缩圈"均已经来到了 较为极致的水平。历史上看，哑铃两端同时出现缩圈的现象并不多。 当然，尽管同时缩圈的情况不多，但在各自领域内缩圈情况也时有发生。只是"缩圈指标"对于不同板块标 动股价的指示意义似乎并不相同。 兴业证券的报告中提到，每当 "小微盘缩圈指标" 升至高位时，微盘股成交占比往往同步走高。此时微盘 交易 ...

分析师：王骅 登记编号：S0890522090001 分析师：宋逸菲 登记编号：S0890524080003 投资要点 权益市场回顾： 中东地缘政治局势恶化影响风险偏好，上周（2025年6月16日至2025年6月20日）市场窄幅震 荡整理后调整回落，成交量萎缩至万亿附近。板块上银行指数一路走高，多只银行股创历史新高，概念题材上 稳定币、油气方向表现突出，超跌的AI、机器人板块略有反弹，前期领涨的创新药和新消费板块调整幅度较 大。短期市场箱体震荡格局逻辑未发生本质变化，主线短暂熄火后，市场或将呈现行业板块快速轮动的震荡格 局。 权益市场观察： 银行和微盘走势分化；AH股溢价率与美元同步回升；政策纠偏下白酒情绪回暖。 公募基金市场动态： 科创板ETF将被纳入基金投顾配置范围。 主动权益基金指数表现跟踪 主动股基优选指数：上周收跌1.63%，成立以来累计录得12.23%的超额收益。 价值股基优选指数：上周收跌1.28%，成立以来累计录得-4.94%的超额收益。 均衡股基优选指数：上周收跌1.73%，成立以来累计录得4.09%的超额收益。 成长股基优选指数：上周收跌2.47%，成立以来累计录得14.33%的超额收益。 ...

以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您 的财富保驾护航。 后市关注点 在众多宽基指数中，科创板走的最弱，半导体、算力、机器人等科技股，从三月份左右开 始，拥挤度到达高位之后，一直走一个弱调整的趋势，目前还没有全面走向右侧。不过，随 着金融政策如科创板成长层的推出，以及后续一系列科创属性的新股上市，有望带动半导体 等科技股的关注度。这可能还需要一段时间，且成交量需要配合。总体上我们建议先防守， 再进攻。 市场回顾 本周市场收阴，上周我判断市场偏弱势，理由是：上证指数多次挑战 3400 点后回落，这里 形成了一个心理关口，后期如无较大成交量，站稳 3400 点有一定难度。微盘股指数，形成 了高位十字星，因此要暂时谨慎对待小微盘股票。港股周线形成长上影线，且 A/H 溢价到达 新低，这个比值要想回到常规区间，往往需要港股回调或 A 股上涨，从历史经验来看，往往 是前者的概率更高一些。因此应该慎重对待，控制仓位观望为主。那么本周则是较为符合预 期。指数本周打破上周十字星的底部，形成了个短 ...

港股经过前几周的上涨，港股医药股回到了正常估值。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天大盘略微下跌，整体波动不大，截止到收盘，在5-5.1星上下。 沪深300略微上涨，中小盘股下跌。 红利等价值风格比较强势，略微上涨。 白酒、消费指数上涨较多。 港股今天表现比较好，上涨较多。 港股科技、港股红利也都上涨。 港股科技这两天回调，回到低估，距离正常估值也比较接近。 螺丝钉也汇总了港股指数的估值，供参考。 | 风险:5 目女 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/01 12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数代码 | 指数名称 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | 股息率% | ROE% | 近五年市盈率 分位数% | 近十年市盈率 分位数% | 近五年市净率 分位数% | 近十年市净率 分位数% | 场内代码 | 场外代码 | | HSCEI.HI | H股指数 | 13.10 | 1.26 | 3.13 | 9.62 | 65.52 | 82.76 | 75.10 | 87 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market has shown resilience despite challenges, with significant performance from major banks and small-cap stocks, suggesting a strategic investment approach combining stability and growth potential [3][5][7]. Group 1: Bank Stocks as a Stable Foundation - Bank stocks have proven to be the most stable asset class this year, with the Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) consistently reaching new historical highs [5]. - The low interest rate environment, with one-year deposit rates entering the "0" era, has made bank stocks attractive due to their dividend yields of 4%-6%, with the Bank AH Index yielding around 6.5% [6]. - Long-term funds, such as insurance and social security, have shown significant interest in bank stocks, with insurance capital making 10 purchases of bank stocks this year and southbound funds net buying over 200 billion in bank stocks in the past year [6]. Group 2: Small-Cap Stocks as Growth Drivers - Small-cap stocks are sensitive to funding and tend to rebound quickly when market sentiment improves, making them effective growth instruments in a low-interest and liquidity-friendly environment [7]. - Government policies are favorable towards small-cap stocks, encouraging technological mergers and acquisitions and supporting innovation in small and medium enterprises [7]. Group 3: Combined Strategy of Banks and Small-Cap Stocks - The combination of bank stocks as a foundation and small-cap stocks for growth captures the benefits of both asset classes, with banks benefiting from high dividend asset revaluation and small-caps benefiting from declining interest rates and policy support [8]. - This strategy has demonstrated strong performance, significantly outperforming the market, with a combination return exceeding 49% and a maximum drawdown of only about 13% [3][8]. Group 4: Advantages of the Selected ETFs - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) uniquely packages high-quality bank stocks from both A and H markets, utilizing a rotation strategy to capture excess returns from valuation differences [9]. - Historical performance shows that since its inception, the Bank AH Total Return Index has increased by 89.81%, outperforming the China Securities Bank Total Return Index, which rose by 62.94% [9]. - The 1000 ETF Enhanced (159680) and the China Securities 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) have also shown strong performance, with the latter gaining approximately 22.1% this year, significantly outperforming both the CSI 300 and the CSI 2000 Index [9].

2025 年 06 月 08 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 稳中求进，静待成长良机 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890524080002 电话：021-20321080 邮箱：haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 风险提示：经济修复不及预期的风险，政策效果不及预期的风险，关税博弈 持续升级的风险，地缘政治风险，海外经济衰退风险，外部政策不确定性风 险。 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 华宝证券 1/7 021-20515355 1、《关税超预期调降，资金为何转向防 御？—策略周报》2025-05-18 2、《关税窗口期应如何博弈？—策略周 报》2025-05-11 3、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 4、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 5、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】未来利率仍有望创新低，关注左侧机会。今年 ...

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a structural bull phase, with large banks reaching new highs while smaller micro-cap stocks also perform well, indicating a mixed market environment rather than a traditional bull or bear market [1][2] - The combination strategy of stable growth in banks and high elasticity in micro-cap stocks is recommended for better returns and easier management, as it aligns with the current market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - The low interest rate environment has led to increased liquidity, benefiting small-cap stocks that are more sensitive to liquidity changes, thus presenting numerous profit opportunities [2][3] - The banking sector's advantages are highlighted by its relatively high dividend yield, providing stable returns for investors, while long-term funds like insurance capital show a preference for bank stocks, supporting their long-term growth [2][3] Group 3 - The 中证2000增强ETF (SZ159552) has shown impressive performance, with a rise of over 60% since its inception, significantly outperforming the 沪深300 index and achieving a cumulative excess return of 26.17% [3][5] - The 银行ETF优选 (SH517900) tracks the bank AH index and employs a dynamic allocation strategy to achieve better returns, having outperformed the 中证银行全收益指数 since its launch [5]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a volatile adjustment phase, with significant divergence among the three major indices, indicating a need for investors to focus on individual stock fundamentals and industry trends rather than relying solely on index movements [3][5]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed flat with a change of 0.00%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.08%, and the ChiNext Index declined by 0.33%, highlighting a clear divergence in market performance [3]. - The micro-cap stock index rose over 2%, reaching a new historical high, suggesting a preference among some investors for small-cap stocks due to their high elasticity and easier capital mobilization [4]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - Trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, indicating a cautious sentiment among market participants [5]. - The reduction in trading volume suggests a large divergence between buyers and sellers, which may limit the market's upward potential, although it could also indicate a period of consolidation before potential recovery [5]. Sector Performance - The market displayed a clear sectoral divergence, with the port, ST, mergers and acquisitions, and food sectors showing gains, while humanoid robots, small metals, liquor, and insurance sectors experienced declines [7][8]. - The port sector's rise is attributed to marginal improvements in foreign trade data and supportive policies for the logistics industry, while the ST sector's strength is linked to expectations of asset restructuring [7]. - The decline in the humanoid robot sector is primarily due to profit-taking after previous gains, while the small metals sector is affected by fluctuations in international commodity prices [8]. Future Outlook - Despite the current market's adjustment phase, there are still structural opportunities available, particularly in sectors with strong policy support such as new energy and digital economy [10]. - Investors are advised to consider stable, reasonably valued stocks in the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors while maintaining a cautious approach to manage market volatility [10].