距离2月8日的日本众议院大选投票日只有一天了，各大城市街头的竞选海报早已经贴满站前、商圈与路 边。大幅标语上众多参选者的名字醒目而清晰。然而在这场表面热闹的选战背后，多个独立民调却透露 出一个更为深层的政治信号——自民党及执政联盟有望大胜，而"站高市"已经成为日本政坛甚至民间的 某种"政治正确"，这让人们对未来日本政治过度集权的可能性产生担忧。 今年1月高市刚宣布解散众议院时的街头新闻播报 民调的压倒性优势能否成真？选前一周，左中右各派日本媒体陆续发布选情民调，结果都显示：执政的 自民党在高市解散众议院后支持率迅速回升，相较于选举前的198席，有望在这次大选中单独过半（233 席）。 民调显示 自民党很可能获得超半数席位。来源：日本民调机构 而长期对执政党不甚友好的媒体，如《朝日新闻》，尽管批评高市拿国家政局的稳定来"赌博"，但也给 出了惊人的估算：即便不计算比例区增幅，自民党在小选区就有机会大幅增加席位，若加上盟友"维新 会"的选票，执政阵营的席次有望突破300席大关。 拆解民调数据，还可以看出一个恐怖的差距：截至2月初，自民党在各年龄层均获得较多支持，其中30 岁以下年轻人群支持率达到39.7%，较一周前 ...

The Bank of Japan held its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.75% on Friday, while upgrading economic growth and inflation forecasts in a decision that carries significant long-term implications for cryptocurrency markets. As Japan navigates a collision between monetary tightening and fiscal expansion ahead of snap elections, crypto markets face growing exposure to yen-driven liquidity shifts and potential unwinding of carry trades. Split Vote Signals Internal Tension The decision came in a split 8-1 v ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen has been depreciating significantly since the beginning of 2026, with the USD/JPY exchange rate reaching 159.45, the lowest in 18 months, due to political uncertainty and policy contradictions [1] - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's announcement of a snap election on January 23 has raised concerns about continued aggressive fiscal expansion, contributing to market fears and speculation that the yen could fall to 165 [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike to 0.75% has failed to stabilize the yen, as the interest rate differential with the US remains over 2.75%, leading to increased pressure on the yen [2] Group 2 - The depreciation of the yen has led to rising import costs for energy and food, exacerbating inflation and putting pressure on small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - The upcoming election results are expected to influence the yen's future trajectory, with predictions that a victory for the ruling party could further weaken the yen, while a loss might trigger a safe-haven appreciation [3] - Official interventions in the currency market have only had short-term effects, highlighting the challenge for Japanese authorities to balance exchange rates, inflation, and fiscal sustainability [3]