1.6T光模块上量，硅光渗透率有望持续提升 GB300预计将在第四季度开始真正放量，将带动1.6T光模块上量。硅光解决方案集成度高，同时在峰值 速度、能耗、成本等方面均具有良好表现，因而是光模块未来的重要发展方向之一。根据Lightcounting 预测，硅光子技术在光模块市场中的份额将逐步提升，有望从2023年的27%提升至2030年的59%。 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，展望2026年，核心看好AI算力产业链的投资机会。中美AI均 进展不断，同时推理端持续推进，建议持续关注AI产业动态及AI应用的投资机会。该行建议持续重 视"AI+出海+卫星"核心标的的投资机会：海外线AI核心方向如光模块&光器件、液冷等领域值得重视， 持续核心推荐;此外国产算力线如国产服务器，交换机，AIDC、液冷等方向核心标的建议积极关注。海 风行业国内加速复苏，海外出海具备良好机遇，积极把握产业变化，核心推荐海缆龙头厂商。近期看到 卫星互联网产业国内动态进展呈现，看好后续产业受催化拉动。 天风证券主要观点如下： 行业走势 截至到2025年11月14日，通信(申万)行业指数涨幅为55.58%，在申万31个行业中排名第二，涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The AI hardware market is experiencing a significant upward revision in growth forecasts, driven by strong demand from hyperscalers and tier 2 cloud service providers, indicating a structural shift in capital expenditure within data centers [1][4][16]. Market Forecast Revision - The AI server market forecast for 2029 has been revised from $386 billion to $581 billion, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% [4][5]. - The AI data center switch market is also projected to grow, reaching approximately $26 billion by 2029, with a five-year CAGR of 36% [5][15]. - In contrast, the traditional server market is expected to decline at a CAGR of -2% from 2024 to 2029, indicating a decisive shift in data center capital expenditure [5]. Growth Drivers - The report highlights that tier 2 cloud service providers and telecom operators are emerging as a significant growth force, alongside established hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft [7][11]. - The AI server market for hyperscalers is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28%, while tier 2 cloud service providers will see an astonishing CAGR of 66% [8][9]. Competitive Landscape - Dell has emerged as a major winner in the AI hardware market, with its market share in the tier 2 cloud and service provider segment increasing by 22 percentage points to 46% [12][13]. - In the enterprise market, Dell's share also rose by 13 percentage points to 30%, positioning it alongside Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) [14]. - Conversely, Super Micro's market share declined by 7 percentage points to 29%, while Nvidia and white box manufacturers also saw declines [14]. Capital Expenditure Outlook - Overall capital expenditure by cloud providers is expected to accelerate, with predictions indicating growth to $850 billion by 2029, reflecting a CAGR of 24% from 2024 to 2029 [16].