Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs significantly raised growth expectations for AI servers and AI data center switches, indicating that data center hardware driven by AI is the strongest theme in the US tech sector, while traditional equipment demand remains weak [2][3]. AI Server and Data Center Switch Growth - AI data center switches are projected to reach a market size of $26 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 36%, a substantial increase from the previous forecast of $2 billion, primarily due to concentrated demand release in 2028-2029 [3]. - Traditional servers are expected to decline at a CAGR of -2% from 2024 to 2029, while traditional data center switches will grow at a mere 5%, highlighting a stark contrast with the AI sector [3]. Key Players in AI Server Market - Dell has emerged as the largest winner in the AI server market, with significant market share gains [4]. - The growth of AI servers is highly concentrated in the secondary cloud service provider segment, which is expected to achieve a CAGR of 66% over five years, reaching a size of $239.298 billion by 2029 [5]. Market Share Dynamics - In the secondary cloud service provider market, Dell's market share surged by 22 percentage points to 46%, while competitors like NVIDIA, Supermicro, and white-box manufacturers saw declines [6]. - In the enterprise market, Dell's share increased by 13 percentage points to 30%, while NVIDIA's share dropped by 6 percentage points to 16% [6]. AI Data Center Switches - Ethernet technology dominates the growth in the switch market, particularly in backend products, which are expected to grow at a CAGR of 50% from 2024 to 2029, reaching $14 billion [7]. - Frontend Ethernet switches are projected to grow at a CAGR of 46%, reaching $10 billion by 2029, while InfiniBand switches are expected to decline at a CAGR of -1% [7]. Customer Demand for AI Switches - Enterprise customers show the most urgent demand for AI switches, with a projected CAGR of 64% over five years [9]. - Secondary cloud service providers and super-scale enterprises are also expected to see significant growth, with CAGRs of 55% and 41%, respectively [9]. Company Ratings and Outlook - Arista Networks (ANET) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $155, benefiting from strong revenue from major cloud giants [10]. - Dell Technologies (DELL) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $150, supported by trends in AI server demand and IT spending recovery [11]. - Cisco Systems (CSCO) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $37, facing market share challenges but with a solid backlog [13]. - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $25, with concerns over profitability in its server and hybrid cloud segments [15]. - Supermicro (SMCI) is rated "Sell" with a target price of $27, facing challenges from commoditization in the AI server market [17].

Core Insights - The AI server market is projected to reach $581 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 38%, driven by demand from hyperscale companies and Tier 2 cloud service providers [2] - The AI data center switch market is expected to grow to $26 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 36%, significantly up from previous estimates [2] - Traditional servers and switches are experiencing negative growth, contrasting sharply with the AI sector [2] AI Server Market Dynamics - The growth of AI servers is primarily concentrated in Tier 2 cloud service providers, which are expected to see a CAGR of 66%, reaching approximately $239 billion by 2029 [2] - Enterprise customers are projected to grow at a CAGR of 36%, reaching around $43 billion by 2029 [2] - Hyperscale companies will grow at a CAGR of 28%, with a projected market size of $298 billion by 2029 [2] Market Share Changes - Dell has seen a significant increase in market share, rising 22 percentage points to 46% in the Tier 2 cloud service provider market [3] - In the hyperscale enterprise market, white-box servers have slightly increased their share to 29%, while NVIDIA's share has decreased by 3 percentage points to 6% [3] - In the enterprise market, Dell's share increased by 13 percentage points to 30%, while NVIDIA's share fell by 6 percentage points to 16% [3] AI Data Center Switches - Ethernet technology dominates the switch market, with backend Ethernet switches expected to grow at a CAGR of 50%, reaching $14 billion by 2029 [3] - Frontend Ethernet switches are projected to grow at a CAGR of 46%, reaching $10 billion by 2029 [3] - InfiniBand switches are expected to decline, with a CAGR of -1%, reaching only $2 billion by 2029 [3] Customer Demand Insights - Enterprise customers show the highest demand for AI switches, with a projected CAGR of 64% [5] - Tier 2 cloud service providers are expected to grow at a CAGR of 55% [5] - Hyperscale companies are projected to grow at a CAGR of 41% [5] Company Ratings and Outlook - Arista Networks (ANET) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $155, benefiting from strong revenue growth from major cloud giants [6] - Dell Technologies (DELL) is rated "Buy" with a target price of $150, supported by trends in AI server demand and IT spending recovery [6] - Cisco Systems (CSCO) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $37, facing market share challenges but with a solid backlog [6] - Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is rated "Neutral" with a target price of $25, with concerns over profitability in its server and hybrid cloud segments [6] - Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is rated "Sell" with a target price of $27, facing challenges from commoditization in the AI server market [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the significant surge in AI hardware and semiconductor stocks, driven by increasing demand for computing power and strong policy support for AI development in China [1][2][3] - Major stock indices in the A-share market experienced substantial gains, with the communication equipment, components, and semiconductor sectors rising by 8.30%, 6.37%, and 6.21% respectively [1] - The article highlights the historical highs reached by several AI-related stocks, indicating a robust market sentiment towards the AI hardware sector [1] Group 2 - The AI hardware market is expected to see an exceptionally steep growth curve, with Goldman Sachs updating its market outlook based on the latest data from 650 Group, predicting the global AI server market to reach approximately $581 billion by 2029 [5][6] - The AI hardware sector is identified as the main driving force behind the current bull market, with a strong emphasis on the importance of focusing on core investment themes to achieve excess returns [6][9] - The securities sector is also noted for its role in restoring market confidence, as it showed signs of stabilization and positive momentum, which is crucial for overall market sentiment [8][9] Group 3 - The news emphasizes the interconnectedness of domestic and overseas AI hardware companies, with both segments experiencing significant gains, reflecting a synergistic relationship in the market [9] - The article mentions the potential for second-tier stocks in the AI hardware sector to gain valuation premiums as core leaders continue to rise, indicating a broader market interest in AI-related investments [9][13] - The overall market dynamics suggest that the recent adjustments in AI hardware stocks may have concluded, paving the way for continued growth in this sector [9][13]

硬·AI 作者 | 龙 玥 编辑 | 硬 AI AI淘金热远未结束，卖"铲子"的供应商正在迎来新一轮的泼天富贵。 01 市场预测大修： AI服务器2029年规模上看5810亿美元 高盛报告中最令人瞩目的数字，莫过于对AI服务器市场的重新校准。 高盛称，受超大规模和二线云厂商强劲需求驱动，2029年AI服务器市场预测已从3860亿美元飙升至5810亿美元，复合年 增长率将达38%。这场AI军备竞赛正引发市场格局剧变，在关键的二线云领域，戴尔份额猛增至46%，成为最大赢家； 而此前强势的超微电脑份额则下滑至29%，面临严峻挑战。 根据650 Group的最新预测， 到2029年，全球AI服务器市场规模预计将达到约5810亿美元，而此前的预 测仅为3860亿美元。 这意味着2025至2029年的年度预测平均上调了约40%。报告预测，从2024年到 2029年，AI服务器市场将以高达 38%的复合年增长率 （CAGR）扩张。 与此同时， AI数据中心交换机市场 的前景同样被看好，预计到2029年市场规模将达到约 260亿美元，五 年的复合年增长率为36%。 与AI领域的火热形成"冰火两重天"的是传统服务器市场。报告预 ...