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美团-W(3690.HK):外卖竞争短期影响超预期 关注长期价值回归
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-30 04:13
Core Viewpoint - In Q2 2025, Meituan achieved total revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but Non-GAAP net profit fell by 89% to 1.493 billion yuan, with both revenue and profit below Bloomberg consensus expectations [1][2] - The impact of intensified competition in the home delivery business on CLC profits is becoming evident, with expectations of significant deterioration in Q3 [1][2] - Long-term, the irrational competition in the industry may not be sustainable, and Meituan's food delivery profit margins are expected to return to reasonable levels [2][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - Meituan's core local business generated revenue of 65.347 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 7.69%, with adjusted operating profit of 3.721 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year [1] - Delivery service revenue was 23.7 billion yuan, up 2.76%, commission revenue was 25 billion yuan, up 12.86%, and online marketing service revenue was 13.5 billion yuan, up 10.48% [1][2] Market Competition and Future Outlook - The second quarter saw intensified competition in the food delivery market, with a rise in order volume but a decline in average order value (AOV) and revenue due to subsidies [2] - The expectation is that the food delivery unit economics (UE) will turn negative in Q2, with further declines anticipated in Q3 due to increased competition [2] - In the hotel and travel segment, GTV continued to grow rapidly, but revenue growth lagged behind due to structural impacts and decreased advertising spending by merchants [2] New Business Developments - Meituan's new business segment reported revenue of 26.5 billion yuan in Q2, a year-on-year increase of 23%, but incurred an adjusted operating loss of 1.9 billion yuan [3] - The launch of Keeta in Brazil is expected to create a new growth curve for Meituan, with long-term profit potential in overseas markets where AOV and profit margins are higher than in the domestic market [3] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Meituan for FY25-27 are 372.105 billion yuan, 450.261 billion yuan, and 537.467 billion yuan, with growth rates of 10.22%, 21.00%, and 19.37% respectively [3] - Non-GAAP profits are expected to be -3.268 billion yuan, 26.677 billion yuan, and 46.477 billion yuan for the same periods [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with a target price of 150.00 HKD, corresponding to an 18X PE for 2027 [3]
美团发布2025年第二季度财报:营收918亿元,用户交易频次再创新高
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-27 09:19
Core Insights - Meituan reported Q2 2025 revenue of 91.8 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, reinforcing its market leadership [2] - The Meituan app surpassed 500 million monthly active users, with record-high annual transaction frequency [2] - CEO Wang Xing emphasized the commitment to enhancing consumer experience and investing in technological innovation for sustainable industry development [2] Local Business Performance - The core local business segment achieved revenue of 65.3 billion RMB, growing 7.7% year-on-year [2] - Meituan maintained its market leadership in the instant delivery sector, with peak daily order volume exceeding 150 million in July [2] - Average delivery time for full-service orders was 34 minutes, indicating improved user engagement [2] New Business Growth - New business segment revenue reached 26.5 billion RMB, a 22.8% year-on-year increase, with losses narrowing to 1.9 billion RMB [4] - Meituan's international expansion saw strong growth in Keeta's order volume and GTV, with significant market presence in Hong Kong and new services launched in Saudi Arabia and Qatar [4] Supply-Side Innovations - Meituan partnered with over 800 leading restaurant brands to open more than 5,500 satellite stores, aiming for over 10,000 by year-end [3] - The "flash purchase" service saw strong growth, expanding product categories beyond groceries to include electronics and beauty products [3] - The number of orders for in-store services grew over 40% year-on-year, with record transaction volume in travel services during the May holiday [3] Rider and Merchant Support Initiatives - Meituan implemented full coverage of work injury insurance for riders in 17 provinces, with plans for nationwide pension insurance subsidies by year-end [6] - The company established a 1.6 billion RMB summer rider support fund and expanded health care plans for riders and their families [6] - Meituan's initiatives to support merchants included cash subsidies and operational innovations, benefiting over 300,000 restaurant businesses [6] Food Safety and Technological Advancements - Meituan promoted the "Internet + Bright Kitchen" model, with 117,000 merchants participating, aiming for over 200,000 by 2025 [7] - The company invested 6.3 billion RMB in R&D, a 17.2% increase, and expanded drone delivery services across multiple cities [7] - CFO Chen Shaohui highlighted the resilience of the core local business and the growth potential of new ventures [7]