Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 revenue reached 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, but adjusted net profit was a loss of 16.009 billion yuan, falling short of Bloomberg consensus expectations [1] - The core local business turned from profit to loss due to intensified competition, while new business losses improved [1] Local Business Performance - Q3 revenue for the core local business was 67.4 billion yuan, down 3% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 14.1 billion yuan, resulting in an operating loss margin of 20.9%, which was lower than market expectations due to ongoing competition in the food delivery sector [1][2] - The company increased delivery subsidies and user incentives to combat competition, leading to significant losses in the food delivery business, but it maintained market share and user engagement [2] - Daily active users and monthly transaction users for restaurant delivery reached historical highs, with a steady growth in core user base and an increase in high-frequency users [2] New Business Developments - Q3 revenue for new businesses was 28 billion yuan, up 16% year-on-year, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan, and the operating loss margin improved by 2.5 percentage points to 4.6%, better than market expectations [1][3] - The company is expanding its grocery retail business, including Xiaoxiang Supermarket and Keta, which are showing strong growth and improving operational efficiency [3] - Keta has accelerated its global expansion, achieving profitability in the Hong Kong market and steady market share growth in Saudi Arabia, with plans to enter Kuwait, UAE, and Brazil [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that Q4 losses will marginally improve compared to Q3, although competitive strategies from rivals need to be monitored [2] - The upgraded membership system is expected to enhance user engagement and transaction frequency, supporting growth across various business areas [2] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward due to the impact of food delivery competition, with expected adjusted profits of -14.2 billion, 1.2 billion, and 24.6 billion yuan respectively [3]

Core Insights - Meituan's Q3 2025 financial results show a revenue of 95.49 billion, a 2.0% increase, but operating profit (OP) at -19.76 billion, a decline of 244.4%, and adjusted net profit at -16.01 billion, down 224.8% [1] - The intense competition in the food delivery sector has led to lower-than-expected revenue growth and profitability, although the company maintains a strong long-term outlook for its core domestic business and new growth opportunities overseas [1][3] Group 1: Food Delivery Business - In Q3, the food delivery segment experienced a peak in competition, resulting in revenue decline and significant operating losses, although the company outperformed competitors in high-value order market share [2] - The company anticipates a more rational competitive environment in Q4, with expectations of reduced growth rates in order volume and improved average losses per order [2] Group 2: New Business Developments - New business revenue reached 28.04 billion, a 15.9% increase, with an operating loss of 1.28 billion, showing a notable improvement in operating profit margin (OPM) [3] - The entry of Keeta into the Brazilian market is expected to increase losses in Q4 due to initial investment costs, despite improvements in profitability in existing markets like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company’s Q3 performance was significantly impacted by competition in the food delivery sector, but it retains a competitive edge in high-value user engagement and operational efficiency [3] - Long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected core local business GMV of approximately 2.7 trillion for 2025, leading to a target price of 141.9 HKD, maintaining a "strong buy" rating despite short-term disruptions [3]

在美团公布 2025 年 3 季度业绩后，我们持谨慎态度，认为投资者应 保持观望，同时密切关注三个关键领域的进展：外卖领域的竞争、到 店业务利润率的可持续性以及海外扩张的执行情况。这些业务均面临 显著不确定性——从外卖领域补贴大战的激烈程度和持续时间，到到 店业务利润率企稳的速度，再到海外投资的资本密集度和回报周期— —这些因素共同削弱了财务能见度，并加剧了盈利波动风险。我们将 2025 年 4 季度盈利预测下调 31%，以反映到店业务盈利能力下降； 同时我们认为该股的估值上行空间有限，直至有更明确的证据表明其 利润率走势的可预测性增强、核心外卖业务的竞争趋于理性，以及海 外扩张节奏更加审慎。 在外卖领域，我们认可美团仍在中高价订单市场占据主导地位，但需 注意的是，该领先地位正面临日益激烈的竞争环境，尤其是来自阿里 的竞争。我们认为，阿里巴巴逐步抢占此类高价值及高频消费用户心 智的风险正在上升，继而或将在中长期引发消费者钱包份额从美团向 外迁移。我们认为，这一风险解释了美团近期加大会员权益投入的举 措，我们认为这是其捍卫和深化其核心用户群忠诚度的战略部署，而 非简单的促销策略。我们还强调，阿里巴巴同时也在持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The exit of Wei Family Restaurant Group from the Ele.me platform signals a significant shift in the platform economy, as it emphasizes a focus on physical store expansion while other major players like Haidilao and Xiaocaiyuan continue to invest in delivery services [1][7]. Company Summary - Wei Family has confirmed its withdrawal from the Ele.me platform, stating that it may return in the future but has not set a specific timeline [1]. - The company is experiencing high customer traffic, with occupancy rates around 70% in various locations, indicating strong demand for its offerings [3]. - Wei Family's pricing strategy remains competitive, with menu items priced affordably even in high-cost cities like Shanghai, where the average rent is significantly higher than in other cities [5]. - The company has successfully opened new locations in major cities, with initial customer responses showing long wait times and high demand [6]. Industry Summary - The overall restaurant industry is facing challenges, with several listed companies reporting losses or declining revenues. For instance, three out of twelve companies reported losses in the first half of the year [7]. - Companies like Haidilao and Xiaocaiyuan are increasingly relying on delivery services, with Haidilao's delivery revenue growing nearly 60% in the first half of the year [11]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with large restaurant chains leveraging their bargaining power to minimize delivery platform fees, thus maintaining profitability [14]. - The shift towards online delivery services is becoming a critical growth avenue for both struggling and profitable companies, contrasting with the challenges faced by smaller restaurants [10][23].

Core Insights - Alibaba's Gaode Map launched the world's first user behavior-based ranking list, "Gaode Street Ranking," and initiated a "Good Store Support Plan" with over 1 billion yuan in subsidies to encourage offline consumption, aiming to bring 10 million customers daily to the service industry [1] - Meituan faces intensified competition in both its in-store and delivery services from new entrants like Gaode and established players like JD and Taobao [1][5] - Meituan's financial performance has been negatively impacted by the competition, with a significant drop in net profit and adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter of 2025 [1][2] Delivery Competition - Meituan's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but net profit fell by 96.8% to 365 million yuan, and adjusted EBITDA decreased by 81.5% to 2.782 billion yuan [1] - The sales cost for Meituan rose by 27% to 61.4 billion yuan, with the proportion of sales costs in revenue increasing from 58.8% in Q2 2024 to 66.9% in Q2 2025 [2] - Sales and marketing expenses grew by 51.8% to 22.5 billion yuan, reflecting increased spending on promotions and user incentives due to fierce competition [2] Rider Welfare and Support - Meituan has expanded occupational injury insurance to all riders in 17 provinces and cities, with plans to roll out pension insurance subsidies nationwide by the end of 2025 [3] - Meituan's CEO reported that the company served 770 million users and connected 3.36 million riders monthly, with peak daily orders for instant retail exceeding 150 million [3] - JD has also enhanced rider benefits, including full insurance coverage and seasonal subsidies for riders during extreme weather [3][4] In-store Business Challenges - Gaode's entry into the in-store business poses a new challenge for Meituan, which relies on this segment for revenue growth amid increasing competition [5][6] - Gaode's Street Ranking covers over 7 million restaurant locations and has launched various behavior-based rankings, indicating a strong commitment to the in-store market [6][7] - Meituan's core local business revenue was 65.347 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a 7.7% year-on-year increase, but operating profit dropped by 75.6% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company's 2Q25 revenue and adjusted net profit fell short of market expectations, primarily due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector, leading to increased user subsidies, rider incentives, and advertising expenses [1][2]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - 2Q25 revenue increased by 12% year-on-year to 91.8 billion yuan, but was 2% below market expectations; adjusted net profit was 1.49 billion yuan, significantly lower than expected, with adjusted net profit margin dropping from 16.5% in the same period last year to 1.6% [1]. - Core local business revenue grew by 8% year-on-year to 65.3 billion yuan; however, the food delivery segment's revenue growth was flat due to the impact of subsidies [1][2]. - The company expects a 13% decline in food delivery revenue in 3Q25 due to ongoing competitive pressures and a decrease in average order value (AOV) [1]. Business Segment Performance - The food delivery segment saw a 36% year-on-year increase in order volume in 2Q25, with expectations for continued strong growth in 3Q25 [1]. - The in-store and travel segment experienced over 40% year-on-year growth in order volume, with projected GTV and revenue growth of 27% and 13% respectively in 3Q25 [1]. - New business revenue grew by 23% year-on-year to 26.5 billion yuan in 2Q25, but operating losses widened to 1.8 billion yuan due to increased overseas investments [2]. Profitability Forecast - The core local business operating profit margin (OPM) fell from 25.1% to 5.7% year-on-year, with expectations for further declines in 3Q25 [2]. - The company has revised its adjusted net profit forecast for 2025 from 28.6 billion yuan to a loss of 5.9 billion yuan, and reduced the 2026 profit forecast by 21% to 34.7 billion yuan [2]. - Despite the challenges, the company maintains a positive outlook on the resilience of its food delivery business as the industry shifts focus from market share to profitability [2].

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape in the food delivery market has intensified, leading to significant declines in the stock prices of major players, including Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com, following Meituan's disappointing Q2 earnings report [1][3]. Financial Performance - Meituan reported Q2 revenue of 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. However, adjusted net profit plummeted by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan, falling short of expectations [1]. - The company's operating profit is projected to drop from 15.2 billion yuan in Q2 2024 to 3.7 billion yuan in Q2 2025, with the operating profit margin decreasing from 25.1% to 5.7% year-on-year [1]. Market Reactions - Following the earnings report, Meituan's stock price fell over 10%, reaching a new low since September of the previous year. Alibaba and JD.com also experienced stock declines of over 3.7% and 3.5%, respectively [1]. - Citigroup downgraded Meituan's rating from "Buy" to "Neutral" on August 28, reflecting concerns over the company's performance [3]. Future Projections - CICC forecasts a 13% decline in Meituan's Q3 food delivery revenue due to intensified competition and a decrease in average order value. They also predict a core local business operating loss of 12.5 billion yuan for Q3 [3]. - CICC maintains an outperform rating but has reduced the target price by 19.4% to 125 HKD [3]. - CMB International has lowered its revenue forecasts for Meituan from 2025 to 2027 by 4%-6%, adjusting the target price from 181.6 HKD to 164 HKD, while still holding a "Buy" rating due to long-term competitiveness [3]. Strategic Focus - Meituan's CEO, Wang Xing, emphasized the company's commitment to maintaining its market position amidst fierce competition, stating that the company has grown through competition [4]. - The company plans to focus on ecosystem development, benefiting consumers, merchants, and delivery riders, while also enhancing rider welfare and support [4]. - Meituan has announced plans to eliminate late penalties for riders by the end of 2025 and will implement measures to promote fairer and more humane incentive mechanisms [4]. Growth Priorities - Meituan's flash delivery service has achieved profitability for several consecutive quarters. The company prioritizes growth over immediate profitability to maintain its leading position in the market [5]. - While subsidies are not expected to decrease significantly in the current quarter, they are anticipated to decline over the long term [5].

Core Viewpoint - The intense competition in the food delivery industry continues to impact Meituan's financial performance, leading to lower-than-expected revenue growth and a significant decline in adjusted net profit [1][3]. Financial Performance - In Q2, Meituan reported revenue of 91.84 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, but adjusted net profit fell sharply by 89% to 1.49 billion RMB [3]. - For the first half of 2025, Meituan achieved revenue of 178.398 billion RMB, up 14.7%, with adjusted net profit down 41% to 12.442 billion RMB [3]. - The core local commerce segment, which is Meituan's main revenue source, generated 65.347 billion RMB in Q2, a 7.7% increase, but the operating profit margin plummeted from 25.1% to 5.7% due to "irrational competition" [4]. Business Segmentation - New business segments contributed 26.493 billion RMB in Q2, a 22.8% increase, but operating losses expanded by 43.1% to 1.881 billion RMB [5]. - Sales and marketing expenses surged by 51.5% year-on-year to 77 billion RMB, reflecting the intense competition in the food delivery and instant retail sectors [5]. Cost Structure - Sales costs increased by 27% to 61.4 billion RMB, with the cost-to-revenue ratio rising from 58.8% to 66.9% [6]. - Meituan's app reached over 500 million monthly active users, with record-high annual transaction frequency [6]. Strategic Outlook - CEO Wang Xing indicated that Meituan expects significant losses in Q3 due to strategic investments aimed at maintaining competitive pricing and service quality [7]. - Wang emphasized that the company opposes "involution" in the market and believes that competition will eventually normalize [8]. - The company plans to prioritize growth over immediate profitability, particularly in the instant retail sector, while maintaining a long-term view on subsidies [8].

Core Insights - Meituan's Q2 revenue reached 91.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, while adjusted net profit fell by 89% to 1.49 billion yuan [2] - CEO Wang Xing emphasized the importance of maintaining market position amidst increasing competition in the food delivery sector, stating that Meituan will continue to focus on quality supply, stable fulfillment, and reasonable pricing [2] - The company is committed to long-term ecological development, benefiting consumers, merchants, and delivery personnel [2] Competition and Market Strategy - In the instant retail sector, Meituan reported a significant growth of 50% in lower-tier markets and plans to enhance differentiated supply and expand product categories [3] - Wang noted that while short-term subsidies may drive aggressive low-price demand, true long-term value creation relies on supply-side optimization and consumer habit formation [3] - Meituan's flash purchase segment has achieved profitability for several consecutive quarters, but the company prioritizes growth over immediate profits [3] International Expansion - Meituan's international business, particularly through Keeta, has shown strong growth in order volume and Gross Transaction Value (GTV) [4] - The company is optimistic about its expansion into Brazil and has already established a local team, while also achieving market leadership in Hong Kong and a top-two position in Saudi Arabia [4] - Meituan aims for Keeta to reach a GMV of 100 billion yuan within the next decade, reflecting confidence in its long-term growth potential [4]

Core Insights - Meituan reported a revenue of 91.84 billion RMB for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, while adjusted net profit plummeted by 89% to 1.49 billion RMB [2][3] - For the first half of 2025, Meituan's revenue reached 178.3 billion RMB, a 14.7% increase year-on-year, but adjusted net profit decreased by 41% [2] Revenue Breakdown - The core local commerce segment generated 65.3 billion RMB in revenue, up 7.7% year-on-year, but operating profit dropped significantly by 75.6% to 3.7 billion RMB, with a profit margin of 5.7%, down 19.4 percentage points [4] - New business revenue grew by 22.8% to 26.5 billion RMB, contributing 28% to total revenue, primarily driven by grocery retail and overseas business expansion [5] Cost and Marketing Expenditure - Overall sales costs increased by 27% to 61.4 billion RMB, accounting for 66.9% of revenue, up 8.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] - Sales and marketing expenses surged by 51.8% to 22.5 billion RMB, representing 24.5% of revenue, an increase of 6.5 percentage points, largely due to intensified competition in food delivery and instant retail [6] Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - CEO Wang Xing emphasized the company's commitment to maintaining market position amidst fierce competition, focusing on essential service quality and cost-effectiveness [2][4] - For Q3, Meituan anticipates significant losses in core local commerce due to high subsidy levels from competitors, planning to increase investments to ensure competitive pricing and stable service delivery [7]