证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2026 年 1 月 9 日 PPI 超预期回升 —2025 年 12 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 点评报告 相关报告 1、《预计 2025 年 5%收官—— 宏观经济预测报告（2025 年 12 月）》2026-01-06 2、《从"安全资产"到"地缘 安全资产"———宏观与大类 资产周报》2026-01-05 3、《大幅高于季节性——— 2025 年 12 月 PMI 点评》2025- 12-31 宏观点评报告 图 1：CPI 同比和环比变化趋势（%） | 同比（%） | 较前值 | 2025-12 | 2025-11 | 2025-10 | 2025-09 | 2025-08 | 2025-07 | 2025-06 | 2025-05 | 2025-04 | 2025-03 | 2025-02 | 2025-01 | 2024-12 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CPI | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0 ...

港股晨报 港股回顾 点，跌幅随即扩大至 247 点，低见 23730 点，其后跌幅 一度收窄至仅 20 点，午后大盘走势偏软，尾盘沽压再 度扩大。截至收盘，恒指收报 23831 点，下跌 145 点或 0.61%；国指收报 9656 点，下跌 47 点或 0.49%，大市 成交进一步减至 827.99 亿。港股通录得净流入资金 4.84 亿，其中港股通(沪)净流入 2.83 亿，港股通(深)净 流入 2.01 亿。板块方面，本地地产、软件、5G 概念板 块跌幅靠前；黄金股逆市走强。 周一港股股指震荡微涨，生物科技、半导体行业 走强，新能源车概念股调整。恒生指数微涨 0.03%，报 26347.24 点；恒生科技指数微涨 0.09%；恒生中国企业指数下跌 0.22%。市场成交 额 2834.62 亿港元，南向资金净买入高达 187.2 亿港元。恒生指数成分股中 38 只上涨，49 只下 跌，其中快手-W 上涨 11.1%，AI 模型可灵在海外 广受欢迎，可灵 AI 功能迭代带来商业化空间进一 步提升；信达生物上涨 6.1%。 美股市场 1. 美股周一收高。道指涨 1.23%，报 48977.18 点； 纳指涨 ...

2026年1月1日，国网武汉供电公司发布2025年全社会用电数据，全年累计用电量达857.12亿千瓦 时，同比2024年增长4.76％，展现出稳健韧性。 电力数据折射武汉经济新风向。细观行业用电结构，新能源车整车制造、互联网数据服务用电量 分别以71.9％和240.6％的同比高增长率先"破圈"，成为照亮武汉产业转型之路的"信号灯"。 用电量攀升背后，是重点产业"拔节生长"的强劲动能。从全年数据看，第二产业用电量同比增长 5.53％，其中制造业用电量增幅达7.57％，显著高于全社会用电量平均水平。值得注意的是，汽车制 造业用电量增长13.05％，尤其是新能源车整车制造用电量实现同比增长71.9％，印证了武汉作为"中 国车谷"在电动化转型中的领先地位。与此同时，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业用电量增长 14.29％。而第三产业中，互联网数据服务用电量更飙升240.6％，凸显了武汉数字经济产业集群的爆 发力。 武汉格篮若智能技术股份有限公司内，国网武汉供电公司工作人员现场服务，为企业研制人形机器人提供保障 2025年9月25日，华中地区首个进入城市腹地的超高压变电站——500千伏金银湖变电站投产送电 2025年， ...

12月26日，随着一声汽笛长鸣，一列由88个集装箱组成，满载2500吨氧化铝的陆海新通道货运班列 从防城港市东湾物流园区集装箱办理站缓缓驶出，标志着西部陆海新通道（广西防城港—重庆綦江）货 运班列正式开通运行。 本次班列的开通，是深化两地务实合作的重要一步。这不仅是两座城市之间的物流联通，更是"沿 海门户"与"内陆枢纽"的深度协同。（杨康 李明云） 该班列由重庆国际物流集团协同陆海新通道运营有限公司组织发运，货物为广西华昇新材料有限公 司生产的氧化铝，其原材料为经海运抵达防城港的几内亚铝土矿。通过铁路"点对点"专列运输，预计48 小时左右可抵达重庆市綦江北站。这条"港口—铁路—工厂"的直达通道，不仅大幅缩短了物流周期、降 低了企业运输成本，更打通了西部地区面向东盟与非洲的国际原材料供应通道，为重庆新能源车等下游 制造业提供稳定可靠的铝材原料保障。 ...

智汇矿业港股上市首日高开近140%，报10.8港元/股。 | < 日 | 智汇矿业(2546) | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 集合竞价 12-19 09:20:18 | | | | 10 800 额 1.5亿 股本 4.88亿 市盈 ** 87.3 | 万得 | | | | 盘口 | | | 6.290 139.47% 换 12.29% 市值 53亿 市净 | 4.49 | | 分时 | 、五日、日K、周K、月K | 更多 ◎ | | 晉加 | | 均价:10.032 盘口 成交 | | 50.000 | | 1230.38% 卖10 10.890 1000(1) | | | | 卖9 10.880 7000(4) | | | | 卖8 10.870 -- (0) | | | | 卖7 10.860 -- (0) | | | | 卖6 10.850 2000(2) | | | | · Pro 20 - 25 10.840 -- (0) | | | | 卖4 10.830 -- (0) | | | | 卖3 10.820 2000(1) | | | | 卖2 10.810 -- (0) ...

Core Insights - The exit of several new energy vehicle manufacturers, such as WM Motor and Neta, has left many car owners facing significant after-sales challenges, including lack of warranty and difficulty in obtaining repair parts [1][2] - The number of operational electric vehicle manufacturers in China has drastically decreased from over 487 in 2018 to around 40 by the end of 2023, highlighting a significant market consolidation [1] - The lack of after-sales support for vehicles from defunct companies has become a major consumer complaint, as evidenced by reports from the China Consumers Association [1][2] Group 1 - The responsibility for after-sales service theoretically lies with the manufacturers, as per the Automotive Sales Management Measures, which require suppliers to ensure parts supply and after-sales service for at least 10 years [2] - However, with many manufacturers ceasing operations, consumers are left without support, necessitating intervention from consumer associations and regulatory bodies [2][3] - Consumer associations are actively addressing complaints and may initiate public interest lawsuits to protect consumer rights during bankruptcy proceedings of car manufacturers [2][3] Group 2 - Experts suggest establishing an after-sales guarantee fund for manufacturers that exit the market, funded by a percentage of sales, to ensure continued support for consumers [3] - There is a call for regulatory improvements to enhance the responsibilities of manufacturers and dealers regarding after-sales service [3] - Courts play a crucial role in considering consumer rights during bankruptcy proceedings, and there is a need for judicial guidance in handling such cases [3]

Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after two months[6] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%) contributing to a downward pressure on CPI[6] - Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in food prices[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating potential effectiveness of domestic demand policies[6] Group 2: PPI and Economic Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential turning point[11] - The PPI's month-on-month change improved from a decline of 0.2% to flat, ending an eight-month downward trend[12] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the effectiveness of supply-side reforms, particularly in coal and new energy vehicle sectors[11] - Current PPI conditions support a downward trend in interest rates rather than an upward shift, indicating a need for continued policy efforts to stabilize economic recovery[1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a collective decline among the three major indices, despite reaching historical highs during the trading session [1] - Oppenheimer raised its annual target for the S&P 500 index to 7100 points, indicating an 11% upside potential based on current levels, citing easing trade tensions and steady corporate earnings growth as reasons [3] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy announcement, with expectations that a dovish signal from Powell could significantly impact market sentiment [3] Group 2: Company-Specific Developments - Novo Nordisk's stock plummeted nearly 22% after the company lowered its full-year earnings forecast for the second time this year, primarily due to slower-than-expected growth in the U.S. obesity market and competition from generic drugs and Eli Lilly's Zepbound [3] - Chinese electric vehicle companies, such as Li Auto and Pony.ai, faced declines of 6.14% and 8.52% respectively, influenced by market sentiment and uncertainties in trade policies, although long-term prospects for China's EV sector remain positive [4] Group 3: Trade and Economic Indicators - The U.S. and China agreed to extend the suspension of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, providing a sense of relief to the market despite the lack of substantial progress in negotiations [5] - Citigroup exited its long position on the euro against the dollar, incurring a loss of $1.3 million, while planning to short the dollar ahead of U.S. employment data, reflecting high volatility in the forex market [5] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - International oil prices rose approximately 4% for both WTI and Brent crude, driven by U.S. pressure on Russia and supply concerns following an attack in Iran [5] - Gold prices remained stable, likely due to reduced safe-haven demand amid easing trade tensions [5]

Group 1 - China's economy has shown a stable and positive start in 2025, attributed to collective efforts, strong confidence, and effective policies [1][3] - The macroeconomic governance system in China has improved, with a well-stocked policy toolbox that enhances the foresight, targeting, and effectiveness of macro-control [1][3] - The first humanoid robot half-marathon was successfully held in Beijing, showcasing advancements in embodied intelligence supported by government policies [1][2] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, China's high-tech industry sales revenue increased by 13.4%, while the new energy vehicle manufacturing sector saw an 18.6% rise, indicating strong innovation-driven growth [2] - The small and medium-sized enterprise development index rose to 89.5 in Q1 2025, reflecting improved operational conditions for businesses [2] - Consumer goods retail sales in categories like communication equipment and cultural office supplies grew over 20% in Q1 2025, driven by policies promoting consumption [3] Group 3 - The government is focusing on policy implementation to boost consumer confidence and support businesses, addressing issues like delayed payments and financing difficulties [4] - External pressures, such as tariffs, pose challenges to economic stability, but China is prepared to handle uncertainties with proactive macro policies [4] - The emphasis on supply-side structural reforms aims to stimulate domestic economic vitality and enhance overall economic resilience [4]