比如，圣奥化学促进剂产品系列中的次磺酰胺类促进剂抗焦烧性能优异，硫化速度快，硫化胶耐老化性 好，可广泛应用于轮胎、胶鞋、胶管、胶带、电缆等领域;高品质特种酮产品系列中的甲基异丁基酮、 甲基异戊基酮、二异丁基甲酮、甲基正戊基酮等，采用自主研发的国际领先工艺，有效填补了国内空 白，可应用于生产高端橡胶防老剂、表面活性剂、环保油漆涂料、数字印刷油墨、电子化学品、工艺溶 剂等领域。 中化新网讯 在9月17日至19日于上海新国际博览中心举办的第二十三届中国国际橡胶技术展览会上，圣 奥化学展出的创新产品和解决方案广受青睐。 展会上，圣奥化学展台吸引了不同背景的专业人士参观咨询，洽谈交流的国内外客户络绎不绝。其中既 有与企业保持长期合作的老客户，也有来自全球各地的新朋友，双方围绕各类产品的特性、应用场景、 可持续发展举措以及未来战略规划等方面展开深入沟通。 本次展会上，圣奥化学展出了橡胶促进剂、橡胶防老剂、特种酮、中间体、不溶性硫黄等创新产品，覆 盖聚合物添加剂产品多个品类，应用场景覆盖轮胎、涂料、汽车等多个领域，充分展现了产品的环境友 好性和绿色可持续发展方向。 ...

Core Insights - The industrial economy in Yanzhou District, Jining City, Shandong Province, has shown robust growth with a 10.4% increase in industrial added value and a total industrial output value of 44.41 billion yuan in the first seven months of the year [1] - The district has implemented significant investment projects in technological transformation and digital upgrades, with a total investment of 455 billion yuan in 113 projects and 108 billion yuan in 137 digital transformation projects [1][2] - The district's industrial investment in technological upgrades reached 7.7 billion yuan, marking a 25.5% increase, reflecting the positive impact of national policies supporting digital transformation and green upgrades [2] Industrial Development - Yanzhou District is focusing on key industrial chains, including automotive parts, coal power, specialized equipment, salt chemicals, agricultural products, and modern medicine, to enhance industrial resilience and vitality [2] - The district has established a "total chain leader" work system to facilitate collaboration among upstream and downstream enterprises, aiming to uncover new opportunities for industrial development [2] - A total of 47 enterprise issues have been identified, with 36 resolved, and 1,529 acres of land indicators allocated to support local businesses [2] Technological Innovation - The district has prioritized industrial economy as a "number one project," emphasizing digital transformation, low-carbon integration, and coordinated upgrades across various industries [3] - Specific projects are being implemented to strengthen the industrial base, with a focus on rubber chemicals, paper packaging, equipment manufacturing, and health food sectors [3] - Several enterprises have been recognized for their innovation capabilities, with 9 companies selected for the 2025 Shandong Province Enterprise Technology Innovation Project [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that going long on rubber is better than going short in the medium term [11][14]. Core Viewpoints - Mid - term view: The rubber price is more favorable for going long than short. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016, and the rubber price is in the bottom - building stage due to a significant decline, which has curbed supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11][13]. - Short - term view: The overall rise and fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies drive the rubber price. Although the rubber price dropped significantly on August 2, 2025, the outlook for the rubber price is not pessimistic [15]. - Market logic: Bulls focus on the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements in the second half of the year. Bears base their view on the current weak demand and the expected negative impact of the US tariff policy on demand [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025, rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - positive factor. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that the rubber price had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pull - back. On August 1, 2025, the rubber price gave back most of its gains [13]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, and conduct repeated band operations [15]. - Market information: The full - steel tire operating rate of tire factories is 61% (-0.08%), with high full - steel tire inventory. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.35 (-0.73) million tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting a decrease and others an increase. There is a market expectation of a small - scale rubber storage plan [15]. 2. Cost End - Thailand: The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [55]. - China: The cost of Hainan full - latex is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and vice versa [55]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - Seasonal pattern: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year [28]. - Market demand: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [33]. - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [39][44][51]. 4. Profit and Ratio - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The movement of black commodities and rubber shows a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 5. Demand End - Tire operating rate: The full - steel tire operating rate is 61% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate data shows no special values [58][60]. - Mid - stream demand: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future [65][68]. 6. Supply End - Supply data: In May 2025, the rubber output was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The rubber export was 711.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.98% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24% [106][107]. - Supply situation: The supply data of major rubber - producing countries is generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The rubber import data has limited availability for analysis due to incomplete updates after the 2020 pandemic [72][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Despite a significant drop in prices, the current stage is a bottom - building phase due to the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices rose significantly on July 25, 2025, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Still need to pay attention to the situation where tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid additional tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - bullish factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Mid - term bullish. Given the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply and the current bottom - building phase, it is advisable to go long at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large decline, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the spread is at a low level and can be configured for repeated band operations [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Seasonal characteristics: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. Other ratios are generally normal without special values [26][30][33]. 3.3 Profit and Ratio - Ratios: Ratios such as rubber/copper, rubber/Brent crude oil, rubber/thread, rubber/iron ore, rubber/Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber/GEM Index are generally normal without special values. The synchronization of multiple varieties such as black commodities and rubber reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand [41][44][48]. 3.4 Cost Side - Cost estimates: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally estimated to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan whole - latex in China is generally estimated to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan whole - latex is estimated to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - Tire factory situation: The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 61.08% (- 3.94%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - Mid - stream demand: The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the supporting tire market. The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [62][65]. 3.6 Supply Side - Device overview: Provided an overview of the production capacities and operating conditions of butadiene raw material and butadiene rubber (cis - butadiene rubber) devices of various manufacturers. Some devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments [14][15]. - New capacity: In 2025, there are new capacity additions in the rubber industry, with a total capacity increase of 1130,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 16%. Major new projects include Jilin Petrochemical's second - phase project, Yulong Petrochemical's second - phase project, etc. [17]. - Production data: In May 2025, rubber production was 791,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The production data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also showed different trends [103].