更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 2 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 Morning session notice 早盘提示 ddddddddddddddddddddddddddd | | | | | 【交易策略】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 红枣 | 震 偏弱 | 荡 | 【行情复盘】 周五 CJ605 合约收盘价 8950 元/吨，日涨幅 0.62%。CJ609 合约收盘价 9165 元/吨， 日涨幅 0.71%。 【重要资讯】 1.上周 36 家样本点物理库存在 13143 吨，较上周减少 925 吨。样本点库存环比下 降。 2.周五河北特级红枣批发价 9.31 元/公斤，日环比+0.01 元/公斤。 3.周五广东如意坊市场到货车辆 6 车，日环比-1 车。 4.周五红枣仓单 3317 张，日环比+4 张。 【市场逻辑】 上周红枣期价重心小幅抬升。当下红枣基本面可供交易信息有限， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton, Pulp, Sugar, Apple, Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market of soft commodities shows mixed trends, with different products having their own supply - demand situations and price trends. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for most products [2][3][4][5][6][7] Summary by Product Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped significantly today, with short - term trends likely to be volatile. The overall domestic cotton market shows strong supply and demand, but short - term trading may slow down due to the approaching Spring Festival. As of January 22, cumulative processed lint cotton was 719.0 million tons, and cumulative sales were 463.1 million tons. In December, domestic cotton imports increased. Spinning mills still have demand for raw materials, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices fluctuated. Brazil's sugar production is nearing the end, and the market focuses on the next season's production forecast. Rainfall in Brazil's central - southern region is a concern. The sugar - to - ethanol ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season may decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar futures rebounded. Both production and sales progress are slow. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - Apple futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The Spring Festival stocking peak has arrived, and the sales pace has accelerated. However, the purchase of farmers' apples is less, and the supply of high - quality apples is limited. As of January 29, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 601.01 million tons, a 9% year - on - year decrease. This week's cold - storage destocking volume was 31.31 million tons, a 45.11% year - on - year decrease. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU, 20 - rubber NR, and butadiene rubber BR first rose and then fell. Global natural rubber supply is entering the reduction period, and the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate has dropped significantly. The upstream butadiene plant operating rate continues to rise. The domestic full - steel tire operating rate decreased slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate increased slightly. Shandong tire enterprises' finished product inventory continues to increase. The overall rubber situation shows general demand, reduced supply, a slight decrease in natural rubber inventory, and an increase in synthetic rubber inventory. The cost support is strong, and geopolitical risks are rising. The strategy is to adjust in a volatile manner [5] Pulp - Today, pulp futures dropped significantly. Pulp is restricted by weak downstream demand, and its short - term fundamentals remain weak. As of January 29, 2026, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 216.9 million tons, a 4.9% month - on - month increase. Downstream paper mills are cautious about high - priced raw material procurement. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the support near the previous low [6] Logs - Log futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market quotation was lowered, and the domestic spot price remained weak. The short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 6.18 million cubic meters, a 194.29% year - on - year increase. The national port log inventory was 249 million cubic meters, an 11.7% year - on - year decrease. Low inventory provides some support for prices. It is recommended to wait and see [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★, indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor operability, with a wait - and - see approach [1] - Timber: ★☆★, not clearly defined in the star - rating description [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited trading - floor operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The prices of different soft commodities show various trends. Cotton prices are expected to be affected by supply and demand, sugar prices are likely to remain weak, apple prices are influenced by factors such as production and storage, and natural rubber and synthetic rubber markets are affected by supply, demand, and inventory [2][3][4][6] - For most commodities, it is recommended to wait and see for now, while for timber, a bullish trading strategy is maintained [2][4][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton prices rose significantly, breaking through the recent trading range. The cost of new cotton is generally stable, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan/kg and the higher price at 6.2 - 6.3 yuan/kg. As of October 15, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the cumulative processed lint was 98.2 tons, an increase of 17.9 tons year - on - year. The downstream yarn market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Brazilian sugar production will remain high. In the Northern Hemisphere, India and Thailand are about to start the crushing season, with expected year - on - year increases in production. In China, Zhengzhou sugar prices are weak. The 25/26 crushing season in Guangxi is expected to have a relatively good sugar production. Sugar prices are expected to remain weak [3] Apple - The futures price increased with rising positions. Due to heavy rainfall in the north, the listing of Red Fuji was delayed. As rainfall decreased, the trading volume increased. The market is mainly trading on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume decreased slightly year - on - year, and production may be adjusted downward. The initial cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - The futures market sentiment is divided. The supply of natural rubber is in the high - yield period, and a typhoon may affect some production areas. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants increased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate decreased. In September, China's tire exports continued to decline. After the National Day, the tire plant operating rate rebounded. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased, while the social inventory of butadiene rubber and the upstream port inventory of butadiene increased. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [6] Pulp - Pulp futures prices rose slightly. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports in China decreased by 0.3 tons to 207.4 tons, a 0.1% month - on - month decrease. The supply of pulp is relatively loose, and demand is average. Overseas broad - leaf pulp prices are rising, narrowing the price gap with softwood pulp. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Timber - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable. The import willingness of traders decreased due to high foreign prices. The port outbound volume was above 60,000 cubic meters, and the inventory was low. A bullish trading strategy is maintained [8]

Core Insights - The 23rd China International Rubber Technology Exhibition showcased innovative products and solutions from Saint-Ao Chemical, highlighting their popularity among attendees [1] Group 1: Product Offerings - Saint-Ao Chemical exhibited a range of innovative products including rubber accelerators, anti-aging agents, specialty ketones, intermediates, and insoluble sulfur, covering multiple categories of polymer additives [1] - The company's accelerator series features excellent scorch resistance, fast vulcanization speed, and good aging resistance, making them suitable for applications in tires, rubber shoes, hoses, tapes, and cables [1] - High-quality specialty ketones produced using internationally leading processes fill domestic gaps and can be used in high-end rubber anti-aging agents, surfactants, eco-friendly paints, digital printing inks, electronic chemicals, and process solvents [1] Group 2: Market Engagement - The exhibition attracted a diverse range of professionals, with continuous consultations and discussions from both long-term partners and new clients from around the globe [1] - In-depth communications focused on product characteristics, application scenarios, sustainability initiatives, and future strategic planning [1]

Core Insights - The industrial economy in Yanzhou District, Jining City, Shandong Province, has shown robust growth with a 10.4% increase in industrial added value and a total industrial output value of 44.41 billion yuan in the first seven months of the year [1] - The district has implemented significant investment projects in technological transformation and digital upgrades, with a total investment of 455 billion yuan in 113 projects and 108 billion yuan in 137 digital transformation projects [1][2] - The district's industrial investment in technological upgrades reached 7.7 billion yuan, marking a 25.5% increase, reflecting the positive impact of national policies supporting digital transformation and green upgrades [2] Industrial Development - Yanzhou District is focusing on key industrial chains, including automotive parts, coal power, specialized equipment, salt chemicals, agricultural products, and modern medicine, to enhance industrial resilience and vitality [2] - The district has established a "total chain leader" work system to facilitate collaboration among upstream and downstream enterprises, aiming to uncover new opportunities for industrial development [2] - A total of 47 enterprise issues have been identified, with 36 resolved, and 1,529 acres of land indicators allocated to support local businesses [2] Technological Innovation - The district has prioritized industrial economy as a "number one project," emphasizing digital transformation, low-carbon integration, and coordinated upgrades across various industries [3] - Specific projects are being implemented to strengthen the industrial base, with a focus on rubber chemicals, paper packaging, equipment manufacturing, and health food sectors [3] - Several enterprises have been recognized for their innovation capabilities, with 9 companies selected for the 2025 Shandong Province Enterprise Technology Innovation Project [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that going long on rubber is better than going short in the medium term [11][14]. Core Viewpoints - Mid - term view: The rubber price is more favorable for going long than short. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016, and the rubber price is in the bottom - building stage due to a significant decline, which has curbed supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11][13]. - Short - term view: The overall rise and fall atmosphere of industrial products and domestic demand policies drive the rubber price. Although the rubber price dropped significantly on August 2, 2025, the outlook for the rubber price is not pessimistic [15]. - Market logic: Bulls focus on the expected reduction in Thai supply due to the rainy season, with more upward movements in the second half of the year. Bears base their view on the current weak demand and the expected negative impact of the US tariff policy on demand [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025, rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - positive factor. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that the rubber price had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pull - back. On August 1, 2025, the rubber price gave back most of its gains [13]. - Strategy recommendation: Pay attention to the long - short spread trading of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511, and conduct repeated band operations [15]. - Market information: The full - steel tire operating rate of tire factories is 61% (-0.08%), with high full - steel tire inventory. The combined inventory of the exchange and Qingdao is 75.35 (-0.73) million tons. Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan have started rubber tapping. There are different views on the medium - term supply, with some expecting a decrease and others an increase. There is a market expectation of a small - scale rubber storage plan [15]. 2. Cost End - Thailand: The market generally believes that the cost of cup rubber is between 30 - 35 Thai baht [55]. - China: The cost of Hainan full - latex is generally considered to be 13,500 yuan, and that of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher costs when the rubber price is high and vice versa [55]. 3. Periodic and Spot Market - Seasonal pattern: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with a tendency to decline in the first half of the year [28]. - Market demand: Overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while domestic demand remains stable [33]. - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, crude oil, and black commodities, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention [39][44][51]. 4. Profit and Ratio - Ratio analysis: The ratios of rubber to other commodities, such as copper, Brent crude oil,螺纹 steel, iron ore, the Shanghai Composite Index, and the ChiNext Index, are generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The movement of black commodities and rubber shows a similar rhythm, indicating a similar market expectation for macro - demand [44][47][51]. 5. Demand End - Tire operating rate: The full - steel tire operating rate is 61% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate data shows no special values [58][60]. - Mid - stream demand: The business climate of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and the export of truck tires is booming but expected to decline slightly in the future [65][68]. 6. Supply End - Supply data: In May 2025, the rubber output was 791.3 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The rubber export was 711.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.98% and a month - on - month increase of 1.24% [106][107]. - Supply situation: The supply data of major rubber - producing countries is generally normal, without special values worthy of attention. The rubber import data has limited availability for analysis due to incomplete updates after the 2020 pandemic [72][76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mid - term bullish on rubber prices. Despite a significant drop in prices, the current stage is a bottom - building phase due to the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply. It is advisable to go long at an appropriate time [11]. - In the short term, rubber prices rose significantly on July 25, 2025, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Still need to pay attention to the situation where tire enterprises in China, Thailand, and Vietnam may over - export in the short term to avoid additional tariffs, which could lead to lower - than - expected future exports [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Key events: In the July 4, 2025 rubber monthly report, it was pointed out that the anti - involution policy had a significant impact and was a major macro - bullish factor. The current situation is similar to the commodity price increase in 2016. On July 25, 2025, it was noted that rubber prices had risen sharply in the short term, and there was a risk of a pullback. On August 1, 2025, rubber prices gave back a large part of their gains [11]. - Strategy recommendation: Mid - term bullish. Given the large decline in rubber prices suppressing supply and the current bottom - building phase, it is advisable to go long at an appropriate time. In the short term, due to the large decline, it is recommended to wait and see. Consider the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 as the spread is at a low level and can be configured for repeated band operations [11][13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Seasonal characteristics: Rubber maintains its usual seasonality, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable. The ratio of rubber to crude oil has been declining since Q4 2020. Other ratios are generally normal without special values [26][30][33]. 3.3 Profit and Ratio - Ratios: Ratios such as rubber/copper, rubber/Brent crude oil, rubber/thread, rubber/iron ore, rubber/Shanghai Composite Index, and rubber/GEM Index are generally normal without special values. The synchronization of multiple varieties such as black commodities and rubber reflects the market's similar expectations for macro - demand [41][44][48]. 3.4 Cost Side - Cost estimates: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally estimated to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan whole - latex in China is generally estimated to be 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan whole - latex is estimated to be between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, with higher prices leading to higher maintenance enthusiasm and costs [52]. 3.5 Demand Side - Tire factory situation: The full - steel tire factory operating rate is 61.08% (- 3.94%), and the inventory of full - steel tires is relatively high [13]. - Mid - stream demand: The prosperity of trucks and commercial vehicles is slowly improving from a low level, and future recovery is expected, which will affect the supporting tire market. The export of truck tires is booming, but a slight decline is expected in the future [62][65]. 3.6 Supply Side - Device overview: Provided an overview of the production capacities and operating conditions of butadiene raw material and butadiene rubber (cis - butadiene rubber) devices of various manufacturers. Some devices have experienced shutdowns, restarts, and load adjustments [14][15]. - New capacity: In 2025, there are new capacity additions in the rubber industry, with a total capacity increase of 1130,000 tons and a capacity growth rate of 16%. Major new projects include Jilin Petrochemical's second - phase project, Yulong Petrochemical's second - phase project, etc. [17]. - Production data: In May 2025, rubber production was 791,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% and a month - on - month increase of 46.10%. The production data of major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam also showed different trends [103].