快评 福耀玻璃-A 2Q25业绩全面超预期 Global Research abc 2025 年 08 月 20 日 2Q25净利润同比+31.5%至27.7亿元 福耀1H25收入同比+16.9%至214.5亿元，净利润同比+37.3%至48.0亿 元。2Q25收入同比+21.4%/环比+16.4%至115.4亿元，净利润同比+31.5% 至27.7亿元。我们认为二季度公司收入的高速增长主要是由于：1）因公司 对美国市场产品提价以传导关税的影响及国内市场高附加值产品占比持续提 升，2Q25公司汽车玻璃单平米价格同比提升8.8%；2）全球市场份额进一 步扩张，国内在手订单饱满，海外订单持续落地。 2Q25利润率明显提升 尽管美国工厂二期产能爬坡仍对公司利润率产生拖累，2Q25公司核心营业 利润率同比提升2.9个百分点/环比提升3.1个百分点至23.6%。我们认为公司 核心利润率的提升主要是受益于：1）纯碱价格下滑带来原材料成本的下 降；2）美国市场提价及二期产能持续爬坡，2Q25美国工厂营业利润率同比 提升2.2个百分点/环比提升4.9个百分点至17.6%。 看好全球汽车玻璃龙头的业绩增长韧性 我们认为福耀在关 ...

Summary of the Conference Call for Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., Ltd. (福耀玻璃-A) Company Overview - Fuyao Glass is a leading supplier of safety glass solutions for various transportation vehicles, including automotive-grade float glass, automotive glass, and locomotive glass design, production, sales, and services. It is currently the largest automotive glass supplier in China [11]. Key Financial Performance - **2Q25 Performance**: - Net profit increased by 31.5% year-on-year to RMB 2.77 billion [1] - Revenue for 1H25 rose by 16.9% year-on-year to RMB 21.45 billion, with net profit up by 37.3% to RMB 4.80 billion [1] - 2Q25 revenue grew by 21.4% year-on-year and 16.4% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 11.54 billion [1] Revenue Drivers - The significant revenue growth in 2Q25 is attributed to: 1. Price increases in the U.S. market to offset tariff impacts and a higher proportion of high-value-added products in the domestic market, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8% in the price per square meter of automotive glass [1] 2. Further expansion of global market share, with a full order book domestically and ongoing overseas orders [1] Profitability and Margin Improvement - **Profit Margin**: - Core operating profit margin improved by 2.9 percentage points year-on-year and 3.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 23.6% in 2Q25 [2] - The increase in core profit margin is mainly due to: 1. Decrease in raw material costs from falling soda ash prices [2] 2. Price increases in the U.S. market and ongoing ramp-up of second-phase capacity, with U.S. factory operating profit margin rising by 2.2 percentage points year-on-year and 4.9 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 17.6% [2] Market Outlook and Strategic Positioning - The company is viewed positively for its resilience in performance amid rising tariffs in the U.S. market, showcasing its pricing power as a global leader in automotive glass [3] - The trends of electrification and intelligence in the global automotive market are expected to continue, with an anticipated increase in the proportion of high-value-added products, enhancing the per-vehicle value [3] - Management expects that the impact of new factories in Fujian and Anhui on 2025 will mainly be from increased personnel costs, with depreciation from fixed assets primarily affecting 2026 [3] Valuation and Target Price Adjustment - The target price has been raised from RMB 80.00 to RMB 85.00 based on the strong performance in 2Q25, with a 5%-10% upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [4] Investment Rating - The stock is rated as "Buy" with a 12-month target price of RMB 85.00, reflecting a significant upside potential from the current price of RMB 55.77 [5] Important Financial Metrics - Market capitalization: RMB 146 billion (approximately USD 20.3 billion) [5] - Average daily trading volume: 10.655 million shares [5] - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 12/25E: RMB 3.67, representing a 10% increase from previous estimates [7] Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include: 1. Slower-than-expected growth in high-value-added product sales [12] 2. Order cancellations or delays from customers [12] 3. Quality issues leading to product recalls [12] 4. Slowdown in the passenger vehicle industry affecting demand for automotive parts [12] 5. Increased competition from overseas manufacturers in China [12] 6. Rising labor or raw material costs [12] 7. Macroeconomic slowdown impacting the passenger vehicle sector [12] Conclusion - Fuyao Glass demonstrates strong financial performance and resilience in a challenging market environment, with positive growth prospects driven by strategic pricing and product innovation. The upward revision of the target price reflects confidence in the company's ability to navigate industry challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities.

Summary of Weichai Power A Conference Call Company Overview - Weichai Power Co., Ltd. is a leading manufacturer of internal combustion engines in China, with a market share exceeding 30% in the heavy-duty truck engine sector as of 2023. The company has expanded into the European logistics market through the acquisition of KION Group in 2014 and is involved in warehouse automation through KION's subsidiary Dematic [doc id='14'][doc id='15']. Industry Insights - The heavy-duty truck industry in China is expected to see increased sales due to the inclusion of National IV trucks in the vehicle replacement policy. Sales forecasts for heavy-duty trucks have been revised upwards from 950,000 to 1,000,000 units for 2025 [doc id='2']. - The demand for natural gas heavy-duty trucks is also projected to rise, with sales estimates increased from 180,000 to 200,000 units for 2025 [doc id='2']. Financial Performance and Forecasts - Weichai's general engine sales and profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 7-11% and 14-18%, respectively, reflecting improved visibility and product upgrades [doc id='2']. - The profit forecast for Weichai's large-bore engine business has been adjusted upwards by 1-19% for 2025-2027, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% from 2025 to 2029. The contribution of this business to overall profits is expected to increase from 11% in 2025 to 23% in 2029 [doc id='3']. Stock Performance and Valuation - Weichai's stock price has risen over 10% since January, driven by the vehicle replacement policy and strong demand for data centers. Investors are optimistic about the company's low valuation and strong profit outlook [doc id='4']. - The target price for Weichai has been raised from RMB 16.70 to RMB 19.00, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method. The new target price implies a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.9x for 2025, slightly above historical averages [doc id='5']. Key Financial Metrics - Revenue projections for Weichai are as follows (in RMB million): - 2024E: 216,884 - 2025E: 224,167 - 2026E: 235,856 - 2027E: 248,302 - 2028E: 261,134 [doc id='8']. - Net profit estimates for 2025E are projected at RMB 12,847 million, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be RMB 1.47 [doc id='8']. Risks and Considerations - The heavy-duty truck industry is cyclical, with risks including macroeconomic fluctuations, changes in construction cycles, and regulatory shifts such as environmental standards and vehicle replacement policies [doc id='15']. - Potential downside risks include lower-than-expected sales in the heavy-duty truck sector and increased competition from companies like FAW Jiefang, which may affect Weichai's market share [doc id='15']. Conclusion - Weichai Power is positioned to benefit from favorable industry trends and has shown strong financial performance. The upward revision of profit forecasts and target price reflects positive investor sentiment and growth potential in the large-bore engine segment. However, investors should remain cautious of the cyclical nature of the industry and potential competitive pressures.