Group 1 - UBS downgraded Weichai Power's rating from Buy to Neutral, while raising the target price from HKD 18.2 to HKD 18.5 [1] - Weichai Power's stock price has increased by 50% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, and is approaching UBS's previous target price [1] - The current price reflects positive outlooks on data center engine demand and improved investment sentiment driven by equipment replacement subsidies [1] Group 2 - UBS has reduced its earnings forecasts for Weichai Power for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 5% due to ongoing weakness in traditional engine business impacted by electric truck penetration [1] - The company’s large-bore engines are in a structural growth phase driven by data center demand, with profits expected to rise from RMB 800 million in 2024 to nearly RMB 3 billion by 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 50% over three years [1] - Overall, UBS anticipates a compound annual growth rate of 9% for the company's earnings from 2024 to 2027 [1]

Group 1: Heavy Truck Industry Development - The heavy truck market in China saw cumulative sales of approximately 539,000 units in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of about 7% [1] - Sales in the export market reached around 156,000 units, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 3% [1] - In June 2025, heavy truck sales were 98,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 37% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [1] Group 2: Company Goals for Large Bore Engines and Data Center Business - The company aims to leverage strong industry demand to boost the production and sales of large bore engines, particularly for data centers [2] - The focus will be on enhancing technical performance, production capacity, and delivery efficiency to meet annual sales targets and expand into strategic high-end markets [2] Group 3: Response to Electrification Trends - The penetration rate of new energy in heavy trucks, light trucks, and engineering machinery is gradually increasing due to policy support and cost reductions [2] - The company plans to launch a full range of new energy power battery products by the end of 2024 and will enhance production capacity [2] - Significant progress has been made in areas such as thermal management and intelligent management of power batteries, with a commitment to improving the performance contribution of new energy businesses [2]

Group 1 - The heavy truck market in June saw a significant year-on-year increase of 28.9%, with total sales reaching approximately 92,000 units, marking the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth [2][4] - The first half of the year recorded total heavy truck sales of 533,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [2][4] - The domestic terminal demand exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of over 36%, driven by the implementation of scrapping and replacement policies [3] Group 2 - Traditional diesel and new energy vehicles contributed significantly to the sales increase, with diesel heavy trucks growing approximately 52% year-on-year [3] - New energy heavy trucks saw sales surpassing 15,000 units in June, achieving a penetration rate of over 24%, which represents a year-on-year growth of 120% [3] - The export market remained robust, with a nearly 10% year-on-year increase in June, despite a 95% decline in exports to Russia [3][4] Group 3 - The heavy truck sector is expected to maintain a positive trend in the third quarter, with anticipated average monthly sales exceeding 80,000 units and a year-on-year growth rate of over 30% [4] - The market sentiment regarding exports has improved, with non-Russian exports growing over 30% year-on-year, indicating strong demand from regions like the Middle East and South America [4] - The continuous inventory reduction in domestic channels over the past three months is expected to enhance market confidence and lead to stronger wholesale sales growth [4]

Summary of Weichai Power Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weichai Power - **Industry**: Heavy-duty truck and engine manufacturing Key Points and Arguments Revenue Growth Projections - Weichai Power expects a revenue growth of approximately 15% in 2024, with potential for even higher growth rates in 2026 driven by: - Natural gas heavy-duty truck engines - Large-bore engines, particularly IDEC diesel generator applications - Growth in Kaiao logistics equipment business [2][3] Heavy-duty Truck Market Performance - The domestic heavy-duty truck market is projected to perform strongly in 2025, with May wholesale volume increasing by 12% year-on-year and terminal sales up by 18% - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to drive demand, with anticipated year-on-year growth exceeding 30% from April to September [2][4][5] Large-bore Diesel Generator Demand - There is a rapid growth in demand for large-bore diesel generators, with supply constraints leading to a price increase trend - The global IDEC diesel generator unit count is expected to grow from 15,000 units in 2024 to 30,000-40,000 units by 2030, effectively doubling the market space [2][6] Kaiao Subsidiary Impact - Kaiao's release of severance costs in Q1 is expected to lead to reduced expenses and improved operating profit margins - The subsidiary will benefit from reinvestment in European manufacturing, positively impacting Weichai Power's overall performance [2][7] Risks and Challenges - Weichai Power faces risks from slower-than-expected global economic growth and significant increases in raw material prices - These factors could negatively impact the company's operations and profitability, necessitating close monitoring and appropriate measures [4][8] Additional Important Insights - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy-duty trucks remains low, but with the implementation of subsidy policies, a positive outlook for the coming months is anticipated [2][5] - The tight supply in the large-bore engine market, with limited capacity growth from major players like Caterpillar, Cummins, and MTU, is expected to enhance profitability for Weichai Power [4][6]

Global Economic Outlook - Citigroup economists predict that global economic growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.3% in 2025 due to the impact of tariffs, with the full effects expected to manifest in the second half of this year [1] - Goldman Sachs forecasts that inflation caused by tariffs will likely not persist for long, as the U.S. economy is entering a weaker state compared to the inflationary periods of 2021 and 2022 [1] - John Hardy from Saxo Bank warns that the U.S. Treasury should monitor risks in the Japanese government bond market, as Japan's debt situation is becoming more severe [1] Japanese Yen and Bond Market - Mitsubishi UFJ analysts suggest that the depreciation of the yen may still have room to continue, despite recent declines in long-term Japanese government bond yields [2] - Analysts from Bank of America indicate that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to address the supply-demand imbalance in the long-term bond market, continuing to reduce bond purchases until March 2026 [3] - State Street Global Advisors describes the challenges in the Japanese bond market as "technical" rather than "structural," suggesting that these issues can be resolved through adjustments in issuance [4] Chinese Aviation and Energy Sector - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) reports that the significant drop in oil prices this year is expected to improve the cost structure for airlines, with a solid foundation for the aviation cycle to start [5] - CICC also highlights opportunities in the diesel generator sets and large-bore engines used in data centers, driven by high demand for AI infrastructure [6] Consumer Goods and Pet Industry - Huatai Securities emphasizes the potential for recovery in the consumer sector, particularly in the food and beverage industry, as consumption trends improve [7] - Huaxi Securities projects that China's pet industry could reach a market size of 478.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.9% from 2024 to 2030 [8] Investment Strategies in Materials and Energy - CITIC Securities outlines three investment themes in the materials sector, focusing on policy-driven themes, high certainty growth from industry prosperity, and innovation in products and technologies [9] - The same report suggests that the second half of 2025 will see a complex price trend in commodities due to U.S. tariff policies, recommending a focus on "hedging" and "supply disruptions" [10] Economic Projections - CITIC Securities anticipates a potential bull market for Chinese equity assets starting in the fourth quarter of 2025, driven by synchronized economic and policy cycles across major economies [11] - The firm also predicts that the economic landscape will exhibit characteristics of strong production, recovering investment, stable consumption, and resilient exports [12]

中金研究 近年来，国内外头部云计算厂商持续加码AI基建。大缸径发动机是数据中心备用电源柴油发电机组的核心零部件，技术门槛较高，国产化率较低。 我 们认为，当下AIDC建设需求高增，数据中心用柴油发电机组及大缸径发动机迎来量价齐升机遇，全产业链国产替代已成趋势，建议关注自主品牌大缸 径发动机厂商及其供应链厂商。 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 大缸径发动机高壁垒高价值，市场规模广阔。 围绕核心部件气缸，发动机具备缸径、行程、缸数、排量等物理参数，直接影响发动机的动力性与经济性 表现。一般而言，发动机缸径越大、排量越高、马力越大，对应着结构更加复杂、技术难度越高、价值量越大。大缸径发动机是指排量在16L及以上、功 率在550kW及以上且缸径在150mm及以上的发动机，主要用在发电、船舶、工业领域，系高技术壁垒、高价值量的发动机产品。我们测算得到大缸径发动 机2023年全球规模超千亿元人民币。 乘AIDC基建东风，大缸径柴油发动机需求高增。 大缸径发动机是数据中心备用电源柴油发电机组的核心部件，决定柴油发电机组的核心功率。我们产业 链调研得到大缸径发动机占柴油发电机组BOM成本约70-80%。受AI驱动下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a stable performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 57.46 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.9% and a year-on-year increase of 6.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.71 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% [1]. Group 1: Business Performance - The heavy truck industry saw a total sales volume of 265,000 units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7%. However, the company achieved a revenue increase of 1.9% year-on-year, outperforming the industry [1]. - The company's heavy-duty truck engine market position remains strong, with a high market share in natural gas engines. The sales volume of high-end products, particularly large-bore engines for data center applications, is expected to see significant growth [1]. - The company sold 43,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, which is better than the industry average [2]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 22.2% in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 0.1 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.9 percentage points. The actual gross profit margin showed a more significant improvement compared to the same period last year [2]. - Management expenses reached 7.1% in Q1 2025, with a notable increase due to expenses related to the efficiency plan of the subsidiary KION, impacting the quarter's expenses by approximately 1.47 billion yuan [2]. - After accounting for KION's one-time expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.18 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain steady growth, driven by the expansion of domestic scrapping and replacement policies and the continuous growth of non-Russian export markets [3]. - The company anticipates strong growth in its large-bore engine business, with nearly 400 units shipped for data center applications in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 148%. This trend is expected to continue into 2025, significantly enhancing the company's profitability [3]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 240.66 billion yuan, 260.94 billion yuan, and 275.17 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 13.06 billion yuan, 14.85 billion yuan, and 15.97 billion yuan [3].