Group 1 - As of July 30, 2025, Lu'an Environmental Energy's stock price closed at 14.42 yuan, down 1.9% from the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume on that day was 1.1981 million shares, with a total transaction amount of 1.762 billion yuan [1] - The stock reached a high of 15.14 yuan and a low of 14.20 yuan, resulting in a price fluctuation of 6.39% [1] Group 2 - Lu'an Environmental Energy is primarily engaged in coal mining, washing, processing, and sales, and is one of the key coal enterprises in Shanxi Province [1] - The company's industry is classified as coal mining and washing, with main products including mixed coal, washed coking coal, and blown coal [1] - On July 30, the net outflow of main funds for Lu'an Environmental Energy was 121 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 4.01% and a total market capitalization of 43.136 billion yuan [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From a medium to long - term perspective, it's hard to say that the downward cycle of the coking coal industry has easily reached the bottom. The long - term high accounts receivable in the coal mining and washing industry means the "de - leveraging" game in the industry isn't over, and price risks may turn into credit risks. There's still a gap compared to the industry's overall asset - liability performance in the 2012 - 2015 cycle. Although the scale of capacity reduction this time may be less than that in the previous cycle, industry meetings after the "anti - involution" signal may affect market expectations [1][18]. - Statically, the cost support at the bottom of coking coal in the two cycles is different. Due to the increasing scarcity of domestic primary coking coal resources, the deepening of coal seam mining and the increase in fixed costs have led to a structural upward trend in the full cost per ton of coal. The full cost per ton of clean coal in representative mines in major production areas has reached 800 - 1000 yuan/ton (raw coal cost is lower). Different from the overall over - supply in the previous cycle, the current situation shows more of a structural over - supply, which may lengthen the price bottom - seeking oscillation timeline [1][20]. - Dynamically, the domestic supply pressure is gradually being released, and subsequent variables mainly depend on the import scale. The previous over - capacity problem in the domestic supply has been alleviated under macro - control, and safety supervision will further restrict coal mine over - production. However, the import level is highly uncertain. High inventory at Mongolian coal ports, insufficient import drive for Australian coal due to inverted price differences, and shipping difficulties for Russian coal due to intensified sanctions all show different degrees of differentiation. Therefore, considering cost and supply - demand, this downward cycle may show a dynamic bottom - seeking trend, and policy measures will intensify the game between reality and expectations [2][20] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 2012 - 2015 Cycle Background Introduction - From 2012 to 2015, the domestic coal industry was in an over - capacity cycle after capacity expansion. After the pulse - like rise due to the four - trillion - yuan policy, the fixed - asset investment growth rate in coal mining and washing reached its peak in 2012, with coal production capacity reaching about 40 billion tons and the under - construction scale being 11 billion tons. Meanwhile, the domestic economic growth rate declined, making the over - capacity problem more prominent, with high inventory, falling prices, and declining industry efficiency. In 2015, the loss - making proportion exceeded 90%, and coal mine enterprises faced passive clearance. The end of the previous cycle was signaled by administrative production - cut policies rather than industry self - disciplined production cuts [5] Comparison with the Current Cycle Cost End - In the two historical downward cycles, the bottom of coal prices is significantly different. The increase in cost has led to an adjustment in the overall price valuation. Wages and employee benefits account for the highest proportion (about 25%) of all cost items, followed by material and depreciation costs (around 12 - 13%). Due to the increasing scarcity of domestic primary coking coal resources, the deepening of coal seam mining and the increase in fixed costs have led to a structural upward trend in the full cost per ton of coal. The historical cost has increased by 100 - 300 yuan/ton in the past few years, so the bottom of this price downward cycle is different from the historical cycle [7] Supply - Demand End - **Domestic Production and Inventory**: Under macro - control, the previous over - capacity pressure has been alleviated. The domestic coal industry has gone through three stages: passive clearance of backward capacity from 2012 - 2015, supply - side reform from 2016 - 2020, and stable operation with environmental protection and safety supervision from 2021 to the present. From 2012 to 2023, the compound annual growth rates of raw coal and coking coal were 1.62% and - 0.88% respectively. Due to the drag of the real estate sector, the downstream maintains a low - inventory, on - demand procurement strategy, and the inventory structure shows differentiation [12] - **Import Situation**: After 2020, Australian coal imports decreased sharply, while Mongolian and Russian coal imports increased significantly. For Russian coal, in April 2025, the seaborne export volume was 13.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4%; from January to April, the cumulative volume was 49.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. The decline is due to limited railway capacity and intensified US sanctions. For Mongolian coal, although infrastructure construction is conducive to trade, high inventory at ports and weak domestic demand have restricted import growth. Overall, internal and external factors may suppress subsequent coking coal imports [14][16]