来源：中信证券研究 ▍我们判断此次墨西哥加征关税主要受影响国家为中国和韩国为代表的亚洲经济体。我们测算此次墨西哥加征关税覆盖的商品约占中国对墨西哥出口的 45%左右，大约影响中国整体出口约1%的商品。墨西哥宣布从2026年1月1日开始，对没有和墨西哥签署自由贸易协定的国家加征关税。2024年墨西哥前 三大进口来源地分别为美国、中国、韩国，进口份额分别为40.3%、20.7%和3.7%。由于中国、韩国等许多亚洲经济体与墨西哥尚无自贸协定签署，因此 此次墨西哥加征关税虽未明确针对单个国家，但实际受影响的主要是中国和韩国为代表的亚洲经济体。按照HS四位编码测算，此次墨西哥加征关税商品 约占2025年前11个月中国对墨西哥出口的45%左右。再考虑到墨西哥在我国出口中的占比，我们估计此次墨西哥加征关税波及商品约占2025年前11个月中 国整体对外出口的1%左右。 ▍墨西哥此次关税调整可以看作是向美国纳"投名状"，提示关注其他发达经济体尤其是加拿大受美国影响跟进调整对华关税的可能性。美国白宫2025年12 月发布美国国家安全战略报告，明确鼓励欧盟、日本、韩国、澳大利亚、加拿大、墨西哥等主要国家调整贸易政策，这可以看作是特 ...

Market Overview - Chinese markets experienced a rebound, with the Hang Seng Index ending a three-day decline, driven by a surge in the pharmaceutical sector and a 16.4% increase in Ningde Times on its debut[3][11] - European stocks continued to rise, supported by easing tariff concerns and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, with the Stoxx 600 index up 0.73%[9] - U.S. stocks fell, with the S&P 500 halting a six-day winning streak, as economic concerns weighed on dollar assets[9] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) in mainland China was lowered to 3.0%, and the five-year LPR to 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month[5] - Major Chinese banks collectively reduced deposit rates, with savings rates cut by 5 basis points and term deposit rates by 15-25 basis points, indicating a clear signal of stabilizing interest margins[5] - The recent interest rate cuts are expected to maintain stable loan demand, with social financing growth potentially rising due to government bonds[5] Commodity and Currency Movements - WTI crude oil futures surged by 3.5% amid uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations and potential Israeli military actions against Iran's nuclear facilities[4][26] - The Japanese yen appreciated against the dollar, reflecting market reactions to geopolitical developments[4] - Gold prices rose by 1.6%, reaching $3,284.6 per ounce, as traders covered short positions[26] Stock Performance - In the U.S., the Dow Jones fell by 114 points (0.27%) to 42,677, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.39% to 5,940[9] - The Hang Seng Index and the National Enterprises Index both increased by approximately 1.5%[11] - Notable stock movements included a 32% rise in Sanofi Pharmaceuticals following a licensing agreement with Pfizer, marking a record for Chinese innovative drug licensing[15] Bond Market Insights - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the yield curve steepening significantly, while long-term bonds in Japan, Canada, and Europe faced selling pressure[4][29] - Asian bond markets showed improved sentiment, with spreads narrowing by 1-3 basis points[4][29] - The upcoming auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries is anticipated to attract attention amid ongoing market uncertainties[4][29]