Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

Group 1 - The average effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on imported goods has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934 [1][2] - The tariff policy is projected to reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026 [1][2] - By the end of 2025, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points, and by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The average household expenditure in the U.S. is anticipated to increase by $2,400 due to the tariff policy, with significant impacts on clothing and footwear prices [2] - Short-term price increases for shoes and clothing are projected at 40% and 38%, respectively, while long-term increases are estimated at 19% and 17% [2] - The tariffs on Swiss watches could lead to a short-term price increase of 39.7% due to a proposed 39% tariff [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has experienced a significant decline, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion, attributed to the tariff policy and weak employment conditions [3] - The recent weak employment report has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [3][4] - Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic data to assess the likelihood of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September [4]

美国供应管理协会（ISM）在本周一发布的另一项调查显示，5月制造业连续第三个月出现萎缩，原材 料供应商的交货时间创下近三年来最长纪录，进一步反映出制造业正处于困境之中。 周二公布的数据显示，受早前为规避关税而提前采购的影响逐渐消退，美国制造业在第二季度初显现疲 态。智通财经APP获悉，4月美国工厂新订单环比下降3.7%，大大低于3月未作修正的3.4%增幅，显示出 制造业动能明显减弱。外媒调查的经济学家此前预期4月订单将下滑3.1%。不过，与去年同期相比，工 厂订单仍增长了2.0%。 制造业占美国经济总量的10.2%，一直承受着特朗普政府激进关税政策带来的压力。特朗普将关税视为 增加财政收入、弥补减税政策开支、并重振美国长期萎缩的工业基础的重要工具。然而，许多经济学家 指出，在劳动力短缺等结构性问题的制约下，短期内实现这一目标几乎不可能。 政府还修正了上月数据，显示被视为企业设备投资风向标的非国防资本财（不含飞机）订单在4月下降 了1.5%，而非此前预估的1.3%。这类核心资本财的出货量则保持0.1%的降幅，未作修正。 尽管今年第一季度企业在设备上的支出出现强劲反弹，这主要是受信息处理设备在关税实施前被大量提 ...