来源：雪涛宏观笔记 高估劳动力供给的走弱程度和高估关税传导的通胀水平，成为联储今年的两大"误判"。 文：国金宏观宋雪涛/联系人钟天 2025年几近收官，高估"劳动力供给的走弱程度"和高估"关税传导通胀水平"成为联储今年的两大"误 判"，本质是对美国"K型经济"以及AI冲击的认知仍不够清晰。当然，不仅仅是联储，各类市场预测的 方差与最终偏差也极大。 客观上的"误判"实际上也是主观认知重构的过程，随之而来的"数据依赖综合征"越发明显，无论是联储 还是市场总是期待用下一份"非农"和CPI来修正观点——最重要的永远是"下一个数据"，经验论越发失 效。 美国经济"增长的盛夏"与"就业的寒冬"共存。尤其是中小企业的压力越发增加，不同收入水平人群消费 的日渐分化："风平浪静"的宏观数据背后是"波谲云诡"的微观表现。 在这种"无史可依"的经济结构分化中，2025年的联储做的并不算差，扛住了特朗普的抨击，保住了美股 的繁荣，维护了货币市场流动性的相对平顺。 但"就业"和"通胀"两个关键目标的误判依然产生了深远影响——2026年在更多"结构性变化"的背景下， 可能看到联储更多的"误判"，或者说，更多的"主观认知更新"，进而不可避 ...

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

Group 1 - The average effective tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on imported goods has reached 18.3%, the highest level since 1934 [1][2] - The tariff policy is projected to reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points annually in 2025 and 2026 [1][2] - By the end of 2025, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is expected to rise by 0.3 percentage points, and by 0.7 percentage points by the end of 2026 [1][2] Group 2 - The average household expenditure in the U.S. is anticipated to increase by $2,400 due to the tariff policy, with significant impacts on clothing and footwear prices [2] - Short-term price increases for shoes and clothing are projected at 40% and 38%, respectively, while long-term increases are estimated at 19% and 17% [2] - The tariffs on Swiss watches could lead to a short-term price increase of 39.7% due to a proposed 39% tariff [2] Group 3 - The U.S. stock market has experienced a significant decline, with a total market value loss exceeding $1 trillion, attributed to the tariff policy and weak employment conditions [3] - The recent weak employment report has intensified pressure on the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts [3][4] - Analysts are closely monitoring upcoming economic data to assess the likelihood of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. manufacturing sector is showing signs of fatigue in early Q2, with factory new orders declining by 3.7% in April, significantly lower than the 3.4% increase in March [1] - Year-over-year, factory orders still grew by 2.0%, indicating some resilience despite the monthly decline [1] - Manufacturing accounts for 10.2% of the U.S. economy and is under pressure from aggressive tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration [1] Group 2 - The ISM reported that U.S. manufacturing has contracted for the third consecutive month in May, with supplier delivery times reaching the longest in nearly three years [1] - Specific sectors saw significant declines, with commercial aircraft orders plummeting by 51.5% and overall transportation equipment orders down by 17.1% [1] - In contrast, computer and electronic product orders increased by 1.0%, while electrical equipment and appliance orders slightly decreased by 0.3% [1] Group 3 - Excluding the volatile transportation equipment orders, factory orders fell by 0.5% in April, consistent with the decline in March [2] - Non-defense capital goods orders, a key indicator of business investment, decreased by 1.5% in April, revised from an earlier estimate of 1.3% [2] - The strong rebound in business spending on equipment in Q1 was largely driven by preemptive purchases ahead of tariff implementation, but this "pull-forward" effect is diminishing, suggesting potential challenges for manufacturing and the overall economy in Q2 [2]