证券研究报告 | 2025年12月09日 硫磺行业深度报告 优于大市 全球供需矛盾突出，硫磺价格有望上行 硫磺主要伴生于油气开采及炼化，未来油气消费增速下降，同时明年高硫原 油产量预计下降，全球硫磺产量增速预期较低。硫磺主要在油气生产及炼化 过程伴生，硫磺产量与化石能源消费紧密相关。主流机构均预测明年原油消 费增速较低，仅约 1%。IEA 预测，今年全年天然气消费增速为 1.3%，明年 天然气消费增速预计为 2%。全球高硫原油主要产区为中东，OPEC 近期决定 于 2026 年一季度暂停增产，并且部分国家提交了额外减产计划。伊朗受美 国制裁，原油产量不断下降。油气需求增速较低，高硫原油产量预期下降， 全球硫磺产量预计低速增长。俄罗斯本为全球第二大硫磺生产国，今年来其 炼厂持续受袭，直接影响了气硫磺的生产和出口，加剧硫磺供应紧张。 硫磺最重要应用为制备硫酸，硫酸需求预计仍将保持中速增长，这直接导致 硫磺全球供应偏紧。2024 年中国 93%的硫磺被用来制备硫酸。全球约一半的 硫酸用来制备化肥，钛白粉、己内酰胺、磷酸铁等也为重要的耗酸化工品。 世界肥料协会预测，2025-2027 年全球磷肥需求复合增速为 1-2 ...

Summary of the Sulfur Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The sulfur market is currently experiencing tight supply conditions, with international prices remaining high due to factors such as maintenance at Central Asian refineries and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to an expanded international supply gap. It is expected that prices will remain elevated in the short term, with a focus on the recovery of Russian supply impacting the market [1][2][11]. Key Points Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2025, sulfur prices surged from approximately 1,500 RMB per ton at the beginning of the year to over 3,800 RMB, representing an increase of over 100% [2]. - Domestic apparent consumption is around 20 million tons annually, with half produced domestically and the other half imported. The main downstream demand comes from sulfuric acid production, phosphoric acid, and its derivatives, as well as titanium dioxide and caprolactam [2][12]. - The domestic sulfur production capacity is concentrated in Sinopec's Puguang gas field and Zhejiang Petrochemical, totaling approximately 16.8 million tons [1][4]. Inventory Levels - Current solid sulfur trade port inventory is about 2.23 million tons, with liquid inventory near 50,000 tons, leading to a total inventory of approximately 2.28 million tons [6]. Production Capacity and New Projects - The total production capacity for sulfuric acid from smelting flue gas is projected to be 60.09 million tons in 2025, with additional projects planned for the coming years [9][10]. - New domestic projects include a 400,000 tons/year sulfuric acid facility by Shandong Daon in March 2026 and several others with varying capacities scheduled for 2026 [10]. Impact of High Sulfur Prices - The high sulfur prices are exerting significant cost pressure on phosphate fertilizer producers, with many operating at a loss. The inability to pass on costs to end consumers due to the essential nature of fertilizers complicates the situation [12]. - Some companies may consider switching to direct procurement of smelting acid instead of producing acid from sulfur, depending on economic viability and environmental costs [14]. Regional Supply Sources - China primarily imports sulfur from the Middle East, Central Asia, and North America, with notable demand growth in Indonesia due to its metal smelting needs related to new energy and materials [3][16]. - Russian refineries are currently operating at about 60% capacity due to the ongoing conflict, with potential for supply recovery if geopolitical tensions ease [17]. Future Market Outlook - The sulfur market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with prices likely to stay high due to ongoing supply constraints and unpredictable geopolitical factors [11][12]. Other Considerations - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy on refinery operation rates is minimal, with the primary factor affecting operations being the decline in gasoline and diesel consumption due to the rise of electric vehicles [19]. - The cost of producing sulfur as a byproduct is not separately accounted for by refineries, but rough estimates suggest liquid sulfur costs around 30 RMB per ton and solid sulfur costs between 120-150 RMB per ton [18].

Summary of Conference Call on Sulfur Market and Nickel Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global sulfur market, particularly influenced by the demand from Indonesia's laterite nickel projects, which has disrupted the existing supply-demand balance and led to rising sulfur prices [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Rising Sulfur Prices**: The demand for sulfur has surged due to the increase in nickel smelting in Indonesia, with prices expected to continue rising, especially during the peak production years of 2025 and 2026 [1][3]. - **Sulfur Consumption in Nickel Production**: The laterite nickel wet smelting process requires approximately 30 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of nickel, significantly impacting global sulfur supply and demand dynamics [1][6]. - **Global Nickel Production Growth**: Nickel production increased from 100,000 tons in 2022 to 200,000 tons in 2023, with an expected annual increase of about 100,000 tons from 2024 to 2026, leading to an additional sulfur demand of 1 million tons per year [1][8]. - **Sulfur Supply Sources**: Sulfur supply primarily comes from oil and gas recovery (60%) and metallurgical gas recovery (30%), with the remaining sources being relatively minor [1][9]. - **China's Sulfur Dependency**: China consumes about 20 million tons of sulfur annually, with half of it imported. The import prices serve as a benchmark for domestic pricing [3][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Nickel Projects on Sulfur Prices**: The ongoing production of laterite nickel in Indonesia is expected to exacerbate the tight supply-demand situation, pushing sulfur prices higher [3][13]. - **Beneficiaries of Rising Sulfur Prices**: Smaller companies with sulfur iron ore resources, such as Yuegui Co. and Sark, are likely to benefit significantly from rising sulfur prices due to their flexible production capacities [3][12]. - **Economic Importance of Sulfur Trade**: One ton of sulfur can produce three tons of sulfuric acid, making sulfur trade more economical and establishing sulfur prices as a core pricing mechanism in the industry [1][10]. Conclusion - The sulfur market is experiencing significant changes driven by the nickel industry, particularly in Indonesia. The expected continued rise in sulfur prices presents both opportunities and challenges for various stakeholders in the industry, with smaller resource-based companies positioned to benefit more than larger firms.