Core Viewpoint - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, raising questions about the sustainability of this debt and the implications for global investors, particularly China [2][9]. Group 1: U.S. National Debt Dynamics - The U.S. government continues to issue new debt to pay off old debt, leveraging the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [3][7]. - Approximately 90% of global trade is settled in U.S. dollars, creating a strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds among global investors [5][6]. - The U.S. Treasury does not need to deplete its reserves to repay the $38 trillion; it can simply roll over the debt as long as global confidence in the dollar remains intact [7][11]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The first significant risk is the "debt ceiling crisis," where political disagreements in Congress could lead to government shutdowns, potentially undermining confidence in U.S. debt [9]. - The second risk involves the rapid growth of debt outpacing economic growth, which could threaten the credibility of the dollar if interest payments become unsustainable [11]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategy - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt while increasing its gold reserves, reflecting a strategy to diversify its foreign exchange reserves [11][13]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum globally, with countries seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [15][29]. Group 4: Alternatives to the Dollar - Potential alternatives to the dollar include the Chinese yuan, but its adoption as a global reserve currency could have negative implications for China's economy [17][20]. - Gold is considered a stable asset, but its limited supply makes it impractical as a global currency base [22][24]. - Encouraging direct currency settlements between countries is another approach, but it does not address fundamental trade imbalances [25][27]. Group 5: Future Implications - The ongoing exploration of alternatives to the dollar and the evolving role of central banks could lead to a more equitable and stable international monetary system [29].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are expected to enter a new round of super bullish trends, driven by various factors including the expansion of gold-backed stablecoins and macroeconomic conditions [4][17]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Since late August, gold prices have entered a new surge mode, reaching a historical high of $4,392 per ounce on October 17, with a cumulative increase of 10% over the last six trading days and a staggering 30% increase from August 20 to October 16 [6][18]. - The recent surge in gold prices is partly attributed to investor concerns over bad debts disclosed by two U.S. regional banks, which has driven a significant influx of capital into gold as a safe-haven asset [18]. Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates on September 17 has been a key driver for the rise in gold prices, confirming previous predictions that gold would rise following such a move [8][19]. - The demand for stablecoins is booming, with projections indicating that global stablecoin transaction volumes could reach $15.6 trillion to $27.6 trillion in 2024, significantly surpassing the transaction volumes of Visa and Mastercard [12]. Group 3: Gold-Backed Stablecoins - The market anticipates substantial growth in gold-backed stablecoins, which are currently small in scale compared to other stablecoins. As of July, the market caps of PAXG and Tether Gold were only $0.9 billion and $0.8 billion, respectively, compared to $161 billion and $64 billion for USDT and USDC [12]. - The core advantages of gold-backed stablecoins stem from gold's scarcity and inflation-hedging properties, which provide stability and a hedge against systemic risks, especially during times of heightened demand for safe-haven assets [13]. Group 4: Long-Term Outlook for Gold Prices - The ongoing strong demand from central banks and stablecoin issuers for gold is expected to provide stable support for long-term gold price increases [18]. - Historical trends indicate that gold prices typically rise when the credibility of the U.S. dollar is undermined, and the current geopolitical tensions and trade frictions are contributing to this dynamic [19]. - The potential for a market shift from high-tech stocks to gold as a safe haven could further drive gold prices upward, especially as the market anticipates a peak in tech valuations [19].

Core Viewpoint - The combination of gold and stablecoins has advantages, but future development needs to overcome certain obstacles. If mechanisms are improved, gold-backed stablecoins can serve as a store of value and, under specific conditions, as a means of payment and settlement [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Stablecoin Overview - Gold stablecoins are emerging as a new favorite in the cryptocurrency market, following the popularity of dollar-backed stablecoins. They are cryptocurrencies pegged to gold, sharing characteristics such as value stability and decentralization [2]. - The gold stablecoin market is currently dominated by two main players: Tether's XAUT and Paxos' PAXG, each holding nearly half of the market share. As of June 2025, the market capitalization of gold stablecoins is projected to reach $1.6 billion, accounting for approximately 0.67% of the total stablecoin market [2]. Group 2: Advantages of Gold Stablecoins - Compared to gold ETFs and futures, stablecoins enhance the convenience of gold trading through their decentralized nature: - They eliminate time and space constraints, allowing for global transactions at any time via blockchain technology. - They lower investment barriers by enabling fractional ownership of gold bars, with the ability to split ownership down to six decimal places (approximately 0.02 yuan). - They reduce transaction costs, with low fees (e.g., PAXG charges 0.02%) [3]. Group 3: Challenges Facing Gold Stablecoins - There are three main challenges that gold stablecoins must overcome: - The inherent conflict between the monetary functions of gold and stablecoins. Stablecoins primarily enhance payment and settlement functions, while gold serves more as a store of value, making their combination somewhat forced [4]. - Gold stablecoins have not fully realized their potential for value stability. The low number of holders leads to low trading turnover, shallow market depth, and significant deviations from London gold prices [4]. - There are issues with credit verification that contradict the decentralized and trustless nature of blockchain. Regulatory frameworks for physical collateral-backed stablecoins are still lagging, with existing legislation primarily covering fiat-backed stablecoins, leaving gold stablecoins facing compliance uncertainties [4].