Core Viewpoint - The total U.S. national debt has surpassed $38 trillion, raising questions about the sustainability of this debt and the implications for global investors, particularly China [2][9]. Group 1: U.S. National Debt Dynamics - The U.S. government continues to issue new debt to pay off old debt, leveraging the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency [3][7]. - Approximately 90% of global trade is settled in U.S. dollars, creating a strong demand for U.S. Treasury bonds among global investors [5][6]. - The U.S. Treasury does not need to deplete its reserves to repay the $38 trillion; it can simply roll over the debt as long as global confidence in the dollar remains intact [7][11]. Group 2: Risks and Challenges - The first significant risk is the "debt ceiling crisis," where political disagreements in Congress could lead to government shutdowns, potentially undermining confidence in U.S. debt [9]. - The second risk involves the rapid growth of debt outpacing economic growth, which could threaten the credibility of the dollar if interest payments become unsustainable [11]. Group 3: China's Position and Strategy - China has been reducing its holdings of U.S. debt while increasing its gold reserves, reflecting a strategy to diversify its foreign exchange reserves [11][13]. - The trend of "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum globally, with countries seeking to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [15][29]. Group 4: Alternatives to the Dollar - Potential alternatives to the dollar include the Chinese yuan, but its adoption as a global reserve currency could have negative implications for China's economy [17][20]. - Gold is considered a stable asset, but its limited supply makes it impractical as a global currency base [22][24]. - Encouraging direct currency settlements between countries is another approach, but it does not address fundamental trade imbalances [25][27]. Group 5: Future Implications - The ongoing exploration of alternatives to the dollar and the evolving role of central banks could lead to a more equitable and stable international monetary system [29].

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者黄绎达 张帆 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 金价有望迎来新一轮超涨行情。 文 ｜ 黄绎达 编辑 ｜ 张帆 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID:krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ IC Photo 从8月下旬以来，金价进入了新一轮的疯涨模式，并不断刷新历史新高。截至发稿，COMEX黄金在10月17日盘中一度站上4392美元/盎司，再度刷新历史新 高，最近6个交易日的累计涨幅高达10%。而且，从8月20至10月16日这短短不到2个月的时间里，金价区间涨幅甚至达到了惊人的30%。 金价又又又又又创新高了。 图：COMEX黄金期货价格与泰达黄金代币和PAXG币总市值；资料来源：wind，DefiLlama，36氪 在我们的"透视图"文章《美联储降息靴子落地，金价的全球豪赌时刻，来了》中的一个核心判断是：美联储降息时金价一定会涨。随着当地时间9月17日， 美联储宣布降息后，金价应声上涨，上述判断已经兑现。除此以外，文中也指出黄金稳定币持续扩容将为金价提供长期支撑，金价与黄金稳定币规模的长期 正向关系，亦印证了上述逻辑。 那么，金价近期连创新高与黄金稳定币总 ...

Core Viewpoint - The combination of gold and stablecoins has advantages, but future development needs to overcome certain obstacles. If mechanisms are improved, gold-backed stablecoins can serve as a store of value and, under specific conditions, as a means of payment and settlement [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Stablecoin Overview - Gold stablecoins are emerging as a new favorite in the cryptocurrency market, following the popularity of dollar-backed stablecoins. They are cryptocurrencies pegged to gold, sharing characteristics such as value stability and decentralization [2]. - The gold stablecoin market is currently dominated by two main players: Tether's XAUT and Paxos' PAXG, each holding nearly half of the market share. As of June 2025, the market capitalization of gold stablecoins is projected to reach $1.6 billion, accounting for approximately 0.67% of the total stablecoin market [2]. Group 2: Advantages of Gold Stablecoins - Compared to gold ETFs and futures, stablecoins enhance the convenience of gold trading through their decentralized nature: - They eliminate time and space constraints, allowing for global transactions at any time via blockchain technology. - They lower investment barriers by enabling fractional ownership of gold bars, with the ability to split ownership down to six decimal places (approximately 0.02 yuan). - They reduce transaction costs, with low fees (e.g., PAXG charges 0.02%) [3]. Group 3: Challenges Facing Gold Stablecoins - There are three main challenges that gold stablecoins must overcome: - The inherent conflict between the monetary functions of gold and stablecoins. Stablecoins primarily enhance payment and settlement functions, while gold serves more as a store of value, making their combination somewhat forced [4]. - Gold stablecoins have not fully realized their potential for value stability. The low number of holders leads to low trading turnover, shallow market depth, and significant deviations from London gold prices [4]. - There are issues with credit verification that contradict the decentralized and trustless nature of blockchain. Regulatory frameworks for physical collateral-backed stablecoins are still lagging, with existing legislation primarily covering fiat-backed stablecoins, leaving gold stablecoins facing compliance uncertainties [4].