⾼盛顶级交易员对周五暴跌后市场的看法 BY TYLER DURDEN MONDAY,FEB 02,2026-08:15 AM 这是极其忙碌的⼀周，⻛险偏好不断下滑，尤其是像贵⾦属和加密货币这样的"法定货币替代品"， 由于市场错误地认为凯⽂·沃什会采取鹰派⽴场，它们在市场上遭受了重创。 ⾼盛交易员迈克·华盛顿在评论上周的表现时写道，卖单流速最⾼的板块出现在管理式医疗和软件 ⾏业。但各类资产的动量破位也尤其加剧了市场的负⾯反应（我们已经就周五⽩银27%、⻩⾦9% 的历史性跌幅写了很多相关内容）。 ⾼盛的交易台数据显⽰，资产管理公司本周最终净买⼊约30亿美元，主要受科技和⼯业领域部分 个股推动，⽽对冲基⾦最终净卖出40亿美元，主要由宏观产品驱动。ETF交易量依然居⾼不下（盘 中占⽐超过40%，表明市场情绪偏空），且标普指数最优买卖盘⼝情况依然很差，当⽇平均仍约为 540万美元（相⽐之下，⼀年平均为1160万美元）。到⽬前为⽌，约44%的标普市值公司已发布财 报，股票反应总体符合预期，尽管不及预期的公司受到了严厉的惩罚。 机构经纪业务：美国多空 gross 杠杆率连续第4周上升，上升2.9个百分点⾄226.2%（创历 ...

Investment Activity - Merit Financial Group LLC increased its holdings in Molina Healthcare by 289.3% in Q3, now owning 11,735 shares valued at $2,246,000 after purchasing an additional 8,721 shares [1] - Cerity Partners LLC raised its stake by 245.3%, owning 80,608 shares valued at $15,425,000 after acquiring 57,266 shares [1] - Gibraltar Capital Management Inc. acquired a new stake valued at approximately $6,709,000 [1] - Brighton Jones LLC boosted its stake by 189.5%, now owning 13,148 shares valued at $2,516,000 after buying 8,607 shares [1] - Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership grew its holdings by 71.5%, owning 80,559 shares worth $23,999,000 after acquiring 33,587 shares [1] - Institutional investors and hedge funds own 98.50% of the stock [1] Insider Transactions - Director Richard M. Schapiro sold 357 shares at an average price of $143.02, totaling $51,058.14, resulting in a 3.05% decrease in ownership [2] Analyst Ratings - Wall Street Zen downgraded Molina Healthcare from "hold" to "sell" [4] - Wells Fargo increased the price target from $165.00 to $208.00, maintaining an "overweight" rating [4] - Deutsche Bank set a price objective of $165.00 [4] - TD Cowen downgraded from "buy" to "hold" with a target price of $203.00 [4] - Mizuho set a price target of $220.00 [4] - Current average rating is "Hold" with an average target price of $193.47 [4] Financial Performance - Molina Healthcare reported $1.84 EPS for the last quarter, missing estimates of $3.97 by $2.13 [6] - Revenue for the quarter was $11.48 billion, exceeding expectations of $10.99 billion, with an 11.0% year-over-year increase [6] - The company had a return on equity of 22.95% and a net margin of 1.98% [6] Stock Performance - Shares opened at $202.05, with a 12-month low of $133.40 and a high of $359.97 [5] - Market cap is $10.95 billion, with a P/E ratio of 12.51 and a beta of 0.49 [5] - Current ratio and quick ratio are both 1.68, and the debt-to-equity ratio is 0.92 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. healthcare industry is transitioning from a phase of systemic pressure to structural recovery, with a focus on profit restoration rather than a return to high growth. Market pricing logic is shifting from "comprehensive defense" to "selective allocation" [4][5][8]. Industry Overview - The healthcare sector has faced valuation pressure not due to demand collapse but because of profit model squeezes. Factors include structural changes in service utilization post-pandemic, rising costs from complex treatments, and delayed pricing adjustments in government healthcare programs [7][10]. - By the second half of 2025, adverse factors are expected to be absorbed by the market, with conservative profit expectations and stable balance sheets across most sub-sectors [7][11]. Managed Care - Managed care has been the most pressured sub-sector, reflecting tensions in the U.S. healthcare system regarding costs, pricing, and risk allocation. It includes senior Medicare plans, Medicaid for low-income populations, and individual insurance exchanges [9][10]. - The profitability outlook for managed care has been significantly downgraded, but the current information suggests that the profit clearing process is sufficiently advanced, with a focus on improving unit economics in senior Medicare [11][13]. Healthcare Services and Drug Distribution - This sector has shown stronger stability compared to managed care, with visible cash flow and underlying demand remaining intact due to aging populations and chronic disease management [14][16]. - The shift towards high-complexity treatments has increased service prices and long-term demand stickiness, benefiting larger service platforms. The capital structure remains stable, providing downside protection for valuations [16][17]. Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices - The outlook for pharmaceuticals and medical devices is cautious, with pressure stemming from policy expectations and valuation compression rather than significant fundamental deterioration. The market has largely priced in uncertainties related to drug pricing negotiations and reimbursement rules [17][19]. - The pharmaceutical sector remains undervalued relative to the market, while the medical device sector is experiencing notable differentiation, with market pricing increasingly reliant on individual company execution and product cycles [19]. Mergers, Capital Structure, and Investment Insights - The current M&A and capital allocation logic in the healthcare industry is shifting from scale expansion to efficiency enhancement, focusing on strengthening existing product lines and service capabilities [20][22]. - Companies that actively manage their capital structures and cash flows are more likely to gain market recognition, with a focus on stable cash flow and efficiency improvements becoming critical for investment decisions [22]. Conclusion - The 44th J.P. Morgan Global Healthcare Conference will serve as a calibration point for the market, emphasizing cost control, pricing discipline, and capital allocation over growth targets. The results will become the primary pricing basis in this evolving landscape [22].

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Group 1 - Centene (NYSE:CNC) experienced a sector-wide rally after announcing that its year-to-date financials align with its non-GAAP earnings guidance of approximately $1.75 per share, which was reiterated in July [4]

Core Insights - Centene Corp (NYSE:CNC) stock increased by 3.9% to $27.75 despite reporting an adjusted second-quarter loss of 16 cents per share, which was worse than the projected loss of 11 cents per share. However, revenue exceeded estimates, leading to a recovery in stock price after significant premarket gains [1] - The stock has been recovering from a 55% year-to-date deficit, primarily due to a 40% drop on July 1 when the company withdrew its 2025 forecast. The shares reached an eight-year low of $26.66 but are now testing the 10-day moving average [2] - Options trading activity has shown a strong preference for calls, with 83,508 calls purchased compared to 12,760 puts over the past two weeks, resulting in a call/put volume ratio of 6.53, indicating high call buying activity [3] - Recently, there has been a shift towards puts, with 58,000 puts traded, which is 26 times the average intraday volume and more than double the number of calls. The September 22.50 put is particularly popular, suggesting some traders may be hedging against potential declines [4] - Short interest has increased by 26% in the last two reporting periods, indicating growing bearish sentiment amidst the stock's technical challenges [4]