来源：契阔资本 01 国家统计局12月27日发布数据显示，1至11月份，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额66268.6亿元，同 比增长0.1%。 同比增长0.1当然是个"好事"，不过从数据的结构和趋势来看（单独看11月，工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%），大概到12月份，2025年中国规模以上工业企业的利润总额，大概率同比可能是下降的…… 这些，其实都是中国很多年来"出口创汇"的主力。 智能化产品领域增长也很快速。 如果根据细分行业来看，全年看下来，除了受周期影响比较大的"煤炭开采和洗选业"和"石油和天然气 开采业"。 当然，也要看到积极的因素，1—11月份，规模以上高技术制造业利润同比增长10.0%。 智能消费设备制造行业利润同比增长54.0%，其中智能车载设备制造、智能无人飞行器制造、其他智能 消费设备制造行业利润分别增长105.7%、76.6%、58.1%。 其中和"人工智能+"行动相关的，涨幅都很惊人。 02 全年看下来，利润下降最多的就是：纺织业（-8.2%）；服饰业（-27.1）；制鞋业（-15.7）；木材加工 （-30.9%），家具制造（-22.7%） 电子工业专用设备制造行业利润同比增长57. ...

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market is experiencing a tug-of-war between increased rigid expenditures due to the phasing out of purchase tax exemptions and the continuation of national subsidy policies like "trade-in" programs, although details remain uncertain [1] Group 1: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - From January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for new energy vehicles will shift from full exemption to a 50% reduction, with the current tax rate of 10% effectively becoming 5%, and the exemption cap dropping from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan [1] - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 confirmed the optimization of policies including the continuation of "trade-in" subsidies, setting a tone for the extension of current national subsidies beyond 2025 [1] - Over 20 automakers, including Zeekr, Xiaomi, and AITO, have launched "purchase tax guarantee" policies, promising to cover tax differences for customers who lock in orders by the end of the year, with a maximum coverage of 15,000 yuan [1] Group 2: Market Performance and Expectations - Despite proactive measures from automakers, there remains cautious sentiment regarding the fourth-quarter market outlook, with NIO's founder stating that the industry is unlikely to see the same tail effect as last year [2] - Data from the China Passenger Car Association indicates that from December 1-7, retail sales of passenger cars fell by 32% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, with new energy vehicle sales also declining [2][3] - The anticipated "tail effect" has turned into a "flat tail," with November retail sales of passenger cars at 2.225 million units, down 8.1% year-on-year and 1.1% month-on-month [4] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - The automotive market is facing a supply chain crunch, particularly in battery supply, as companies scramble to secure batteries for production [4][5] - The demand for batteries is rapidly shifting towards high-end products, but the expansion of high-end production capacity is limited due to technological barriers [5] - The storage market is experiencing explosive growth, diverting battery production capacity away from the automotive sector, with global storage cell shipments increasing by 98.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [5] Group 4: Future Market Trends and Growth Projections - The automotive industry is expected to see a slowdown in growth, with UBS predicting a decline in domestic passenger car sales growth from 8% in 2025 to -2% in 2026 [7][8] - The overall market growth forecast has been adjusted downward, with expectations of a 3% to 5% increase in automotive sales for the current year, and achieving 3% growth next year considered a reasonable target [8] - Future opportunities are anticipated to arise from structural adjustments and value exploration, with a focus on developing charging infrastructure and tapping into lower-tier markets [8]

Group 1 - CITIC Securities believes that the current index level of 4000 points is significantly better than the same level in 2015, with a notably lower valuation, suggesting that there is no need to overly focus on the index itself [1] - The report highlights three key areas for investment: upgrading traditional manufacturing, Chinese companies going abroad, and edge AI, while short-term attention should be given to potential rebound opportunities following the third quarter reports [1] - Caixin Securities indicates that the market is shifting from macro-driven logic to a fund-driven logic due to the concentration of macro events, with institutional funds likely to take profits in high-valuation sectors, leading to a potential rebalancing of market styles [1] Group 2 - CITIC Jiantou notes that after a period of high market sentiment and the realization of three major benefits, the A-share market is at a high position and may face a new round of horizontal adjustment due to a lack of favorable news [2] - The report mentions that the allocation ratio in the electronic industry exceeds 25%, the innovation and entrepreneurship board exceeds 40%, and the growth style exceeds 60%, all at their highest levels since 2010, which may trigger structural adjustments [2] - From a seasonal effect perspective, the report suggests that as year-end profits are often realized, large-cap value styles tend to dominate [2]

每经AI快讯，中信建投表示，在10月下旬市场情绪高涨、三大利好集中兑现后，A股已经处于较高位 置，且后续面临利好空窗期，市场可能面临新一轮横盘调整，建议投资者暂缓加仓。A股的主线和风格 也可能出现切换。基金三季报显示电子行业配置比例超过25%，双创板块超过40%，成长风格超过 60%，均为2010年以来最高水平，这可能引发结构性调整。另外，从季节效应角度来看，年底盈利多兑 现，大盘价值风格往往占优。 11月看好三大线索：1、景气线索：重点看好新能源(储能、固态电池等)和非银行金融(券商、保险)； 2、年末调仓：年末关注前10个月涨幅最小、基金配置比例偏低的行业板块如煤炭、石油石化、公用事 业、食品饮料、交通运输等；3、短期切换：短期关注今年10月跌幅最大、且全年涨跌幅有限、基金配 置比例偏低传媒、美容护理、汽车等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Construction Investment indicates that after a surge in market sentiment in late October and the realization of three major benefits, the A-share market is now at a high level and may face a new round of sideways adjustment due to a lack of favorable news in the near term, suggesting investors should pause on increasing positions [1] Group 1: Market Position and Trends - The A-share market's main lines and styles may undergo a shift, with the electronic industry allocation exceeding 25%, the innovation and entrepreneurship sector over 40%, and the growth style surpassing 60%, all at the highest levels since 2010, potentially leading to structural adjustments [1] - From a seasonal perspective, as year-end profits are often realized, large-cap value styles tend to outperform [1] Group 2: Investment Focus for November - Three key areas are highlighted for November: 1. **Economic Prosperity Clues**: Focus on new energy (energy storage, solid-state batteries) and non-bank financial sectors (brokerage, insurance) [1] 2. **Year-End Portfolio Adjustment**: Attention should be given to sectors with the smallest gains over the first ten months and lower fund allocation ratios, such as coal, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, food and beverages, and transportation [1] 3. **Short-Term Switch**: Short-term focus on sectors that experienced the largest declines in October, with limited overall gains for the year and lower fund allocation ratios, including media, beauty care, and automotive [1]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is experiencing a decline, with the China Securities Index for the petrochemical industry down approximately 1.4%, indicating a challenging market environment for many companies in this sector [1] Industry Summary - The decline in the petrochemical industry is attributed to policy constraints leading to the gradual exit of some small independent refineries, alongside a peak in demand for refined oil products. This shift is expected to favor large integrated refining and chemical enterprises [1] - The pure soda ash industry is facing profitability pressures due to slowing demand growth and large-scale capacity waiting to be launched, exacerbated by ongoing policy guidance aimed at phasing out outdated capacities. Natural soda ash producers are anticipated to benefit from this trend [1] Company Summary - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Securities Index for the petrochemical industry, with the basic chemical industry accounting for 61.93% and the oil and petrochemical industry for 30.84% of the index [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Wanhua Chemical, China Petroleum, Salt Lake Industry, Sinopec, CNOOC, Juhua Co., Zangge Mining, Kingfa Technology, Hualu Hengsheng, and Baofeng Energy, collectively representing 55.12% of the index [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved double growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025, maintaining its position among the top three in the industry despite overall pressure in the liquor sector [2][10]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 23.964 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.35%, and a net profit of 8.505 billion yuan, up 1.13% [2]. - The core product, the "Fenjiu series," generated sales revenue of 23.391 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.75% increase, accounting for 98% of total revenue [3]. - Revenue from the domestic market reached 8.732 billion yuan, growing by 4.04%, while revenue from outside Shanxi was 15.143 billion yuan, increasing by 6.15% [4][6]. Group 2: Market Position and Trends - The proportion of revenue from outside Shanxi increased from 62.96% in 2024 to 63.42% in 2025, indicating effective national expansion [5]. - The liquor industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with leading companies like Shanxi Fenjiu showing resilience while smaller firms face challenges [7][8]. - Among 17 listed liquor companies, only a few, including Shanxi Fenjiu, reported growth in both revenue and net profit, contrasting with the decline seen in many others [9]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Shanxi Fenjiu is focusing on management transformation, production optimization, national expansion, technological innovation, and cultural development to drive high-quality growth [10]. - The company is implementing lean management across its production chain and enhancing supply chain resilience by establishing backup procurement channels [10]. - The national expansion strategy is being advanced with a focus on key markets and brand penetration through targeted promotional projects [10].

Group 1 - The current macro environment reflects a deep transformation in global markets, influenced by geopolitical tensions and disruptive trends like artificial intelligence [1][3] - BlackRock emphasizes the need for deeper scenario analysis in asset allocation processes, focusing on short-term certainties amidst uncertainty [3][4] - In the context of market volatility, BlackRock sees opportunities for excess returns (Alpha) and highlights the importance of flexible position management [4][5] Group 2 - BlackRock identifies three key themes to navigate the current market: seeking certainty in uncertain environments, strategically managing macro risks, and adapting to the failure of traditional anchors [3][4][5] - The firm expresses a preference for U.S. equities and short-term U.S. bonds, while also emphasizing the value of gold during high volatility periods [3][4] - In the Chinese market, BlackRock is focused on structural opportunities, particularly in the photovoltaic sector and the growth potential from artificial intelligence [6]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In Q2 2025, China's economy exhibits a dual characteristic of structural adjustment and growth resilience amid complex internal and external environments [1] - The global trade environment is undergoing significant changes, with the escalation of the US-China tariff war being a major external variable affecting China's economy [2][3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - Since late 2024, US tariffs on China have increased from an initial 20% to a peak, affecting a wide range of products including steel, aluminum, and high-tech items [2] - Despite some tariff reductions following negotiations, the overall tariff levels remain high, creating uncertainty in trade [2] - China's export growth to the US has shown volatility, while exports to ASEAN, Latin America, and Africa have increased, with ASEAN's share nearing 30% in Q2 2025, up approximately 8 percentage points since 2018 [2] Group 3: Domestic Policy Adjustments - Since September 2024, domestic policies have shifted towards a "three arrows" approach focusing on structural rebalancing, fiscal support, and monetary coordination [4] - A significant local government debt replacement plan of 10 trillion yuan has been initiated to alleviate fiscal pressures, alongside an increase in the budget deficit rate to 4% for 2025 [4] - Consumption support measures are expected to reach 40-60 billion yuan in 2025, aimed at boosting market confidence [4] Group 4: Economic Structure Transformation - The economic structure is transitioning from investment-driven growth to innovation and consumption-led growth, with a focus on high-tech sectors such as AI and renewable energy [6] - The government has established a 60 billion yuan AI industry fund, with local governments also creating funds to support advanced manufacturing [6] - Retail sales are recovering, with service consumption growing faster than goods consumption, and online retail penetration nearing 28% of total retail sales [6] Group 5: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is undergoing a deep adjustment, with investment growth slowing but market structure improving, focusing on affordable housing and urban renewal [7] - Long-term, the role of real estate in economic growth is expected to diminish as urbanization matures and demographic changes occur [7] Group 6: Long-term Trends and Challenges - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, facing challenges such as aging population and labor supply changes [8] - Debt levels among local governments and enterprises remain a concern, but domestic ownership of debt and high savings rates provide a buffer [8] - The US-China relationship and global supply chain adjustments will continue to influence economic operations, with opportunities arising from cooperation in areas like renewable energy [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's ruling coalition faced a historic defeat in the recent House of Councillors election, marking the first time since the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) establishment in 1955 that it lost a majority in both houses, leading to increased political fragmentation and uncertainty in the economy [1][2] Economic Impact - Rising inflation and the introduction of foreign immigrants have led to public discontent against the LDP, exacerbated by the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has caused a reversal of Japan's long-standing deflation and uncontrolled rice prices [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's benchmark interest rate remains at 0.5%, contributing to yen depreciation and import-driven inflation, while the influx of foreign tourists and investors has intensified local resentment towards foreigners [1][2] Political Dynamics - The political landscape is shifting towards the right, with younger voters supporting right-wing parties advocating for "Japan First" policies, which include rejecting immigration and proposing tax cuts and subsidies to alleviate living costs [1][3] - Prime Minister Kishida's weakened political foundation may hinder substantial concessions in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, potentially leading to a stalemate in both the political arena and trade discussions [2][3] Fiscal Challenges - The call for tax reductions, particularly on consumption tax, is gaining traction, with 52% of the public supporting such measures, despite concerns that this could worsen Japan's fiscal situation and lead to increased long-term interest rates [3][4] - Japan's national debt stands at 250% of GDP, the highest among developed nations, necessitating low interest rates to manage government interest costs while stimulating exports [2][3] Market Reactions - Political uncertainty is expected to negatively impact yen-denominated assets, potentially driving international capital away from the Japanese bond market, which could trigger broader risks in U.S.-Japan capital markets [4]