证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-07-09 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 海外周报 20250706：6 月超预期非农令市场降息预期延后至 9 月 核心观点：本周美越贸易协议与对华芯片设计软件出口限制解除提振市 场情绪，美股上涨；而经济数据的走强令美债利率随降息预期降温而大幅 上行，10 年期美债利率全周升 6.89bps 至 4.346%。本周美国"软数据" PMI 调查超预期，ISM 服务业 PMI 重回荣枯线之上。而周五公布的"硬 数据"美国 6 月非农就业再度超预期，失业率也有所回落，市场对此解 读偏乐观，7 月降息预期被彻底打消。此外本周特朗普《大美丽法案》 （OBBB）正式签署落地，债务上限进一步提高 5 万亿美元至 41 万亿美 元。由于《大美丽法案》带来的赤字增加预期已被市场关注许久，因此 OBBB 的落地或意味着"买预期、卖现实"的交易进入后半程。短期看， 30 年美债利率或 10s30s 期限利差的上行或因此告一段落。 风险提示： 特朗普政策超预期；美联储降息幅度过大引发通胀反弹甚至失控；美联储 维持高利率水平时间过长，引发金融系统流动性 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's speech on promoting urban-rural integration and reducing disparities through the "Ten Million Project" [1] - The focus is on enhancing internal driving forces through mountain-sea cooperation and paired assistance mechanisms to activate high-quality development in Chun'an County [1] - The goal is to ensure that Chun'an County's economic growth and residents' income growth consistently exceed the provincial average [1] Group 2 - Development of specialized industries is identified as a crucial path for Chun'an County to enhance wealth for its residents, promoting the full-chain development of local specialties [2] - The encouragement of enterprises to leverage technology and channel advantages to develop and promote unique agricultural products is highlighted [2] - The need for continuous investment in research and development and technological innovation by local companies to meet market demands and enhance competitiveness is stressed [2] Group 3 - The integration of basic public services in education, healthcare, and elderly care is emphasized to improve the overall capacity of county towns and facilitate the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations [3] - The establishment of a comprehensive "common prosperity workshop" in Shuguang Community is recognized as a model for integrating various services to support employment and income generation [3] - The importance of transforming educational and training outcomes into tangible high-quality development results is underscored [3]

日前，黑龙江省海林市召开市委财经委员会第一次会议暨全市经济运行调度会议，全面分析当前经济形 势，指出要以"三个突破年"为抓手，精准施策抓招商增后劲，坚定不移建项目扩投资，全力构建"强机 制、优模式、显成效"的招商格局，推动县域经济发展取得新成效、实现新增长。 海林市始终秉持"项目为王、实干为要"的理念，将招商引资视为经济发展的核心动力。为落实经济运行 会精神，强化制度保障，海林市编制《海林市招商引资专班工作机制》《2024—2025年海林市冬季招 商"百日行动"实施方案》，创新构建起产业专班与开发区、乡镇紧密融合、协同共进的招商工作体系。 同时，重新完善"四个清单"，并多次召开全市招商引资大会、调度会等覆盖范围广、涉及领域全的重要 会议，全方位推动招商引资工作落地见效，成功实现引资新突破。 优质服务是保障项目落地的重要支撑。海林市推出招商引资项目全生命周期管理服务保障体系，坚 持"一个项目一个市级领导、一个专班服务"，对重点项目提供全程领办代办服务，确保项目推进过程中 遇到的任何问题都能及时得到解决，有力推动项目快速建设、顺利投产达效。截至目前，已建立服务保 障电子台账205份，切实为项目落地生根保驾护航。 ...

市场本来猜测本周末美国就会参与对伊朗的行动，股市都吓一哆嗦，有人喊出会出现"膝跳反射式抛 售"。特朗普不可能不知道后果。然后立马就来个预期管理。综合央视新闻、新华网等媒体报道，当地 时间6月19日，白宫就伊朗问题表示，美国总统特朗普将在两周内决定是否打击伊朗。时间延长到两 周，差不多接近以色列库导弹存消耗完的时间。按照眼下一天一个变的形势，两周时间不知道要发生多 少事情，摆明了特朗普确实不想直接下场。但以色列很着急，内塔尼亚胡表示已经完成"预定目标"，下 一步就是清除伊朗的核基地，而最想炸掉的就是最关键的福尔多核基地。其离心机大厅顶部为百米山 岩，并加固混凝土覆盖。以色列现有"钻地弹"无法突破，从某种意义上讲，只要福尔多的离心机仍在运 行，以色列就无法宣布在战争中取得完胜。因此只能借助美国B-2战略轰炸机，能携带两枚13吨重的 GBU-57钻地炸弹，该弹为打击伊朗核目标专门设计，可穿透60米土层和20米加固混凝土（具体数据保 密），是以军现有炸弹穿透力的两倍以上。 【解剖大盘】 国际资本都在看特朗普的眼色行事，调控市场确实有一套，港股今天跳空涨1.26%。 伊朗的反击虽然烈度降低，每天大概20-30枚高强度导 ...

Industry Insights - The production of new energy vehicles in China reached over 4.4 million units from January to April, with a market penetration rate of 43%, leading to a significant increase in second-hand vehicle supply and a notable price drop for several models in May, including those from Tesla, BYD, Zeekr, and Xiaomi [9] - The first quarter of 2025 saw Xiaopeng Motors reclaim the title of sales champion among new energy vehicle manufacturers, delivering 94,008 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 330.8% [15] - BYD's stock price hit a new high, with a year-to-date increase of over 40%, and its sales of pure electric vehicles in Europe surpassed those of Tesla for the first time [14] - The recent revision of regulations regarding government dining has negatively impacted the stock prices of several liquor companies, with notable declines observed in companies like Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [12] Company Developments - Ningde Times made a strong debut on the Hong Kong stock market, with shares opening at 263 HKD and reaching a peak of 307.6 HKD, marking a 16.96% increase and establishing it as the largest IPO globally this year [13] - Huaxi Biological criticized the market's portrayal of the hyaluronic acid industry, claiming it has faced misinformation and manipulation that undermines its competitive position [16] - The establishment of a new company for High合汽车, with a registered capital of approximately 143 million USD, indicates a shift in ownership structure, now involving foreign investment [18][19]

Group 1 - A-shares showed unexpected resilience despite recent downward trends, defying expectations of further declines after two days of losses [1] - The real estate sector experienced a surprising surge, attributed to expanding fixed asset investments, although real estate investment decreased by 10% and new housing sales continued to decline [4] - The white liquor industry faced significant pressure due to recent news, leading to concerns among enthusiasts, but this situation may present investment opportunities as the market adjusts [6][7] Group 2 - The CRO sector appears to have avoided significant downturns, with previous caution proving to be a wise decision as the market dynamics shifted [8]

估计川总自己也没想到，明明是针对中国的关税大棒，如今却像个回旋镖一样砸在了自己身上。 不仅头号拥趸马斯克身价缩水，就连美国农民这个铁票仓也被关税大棒打的头破血流。 混乱的关税状态，正在深深损害美国农业生产者的利益。 尤其是小农业主们，本身体量就小，抗风险能力就差，白宫刮起的"关税妖风"连特斯拉这样的企业都顶不住，更何况他们呢？ 但是别的买家吃不下几十万吨的货，猫粮狗粮利润也没有卖给中国高。 所以转来转去，还有谁能比中国这个客户更优质？ 钱多量大事儿还少。 就算是口罩期间的2022年，当时中国对美多地实施了进口禁令，结果中国仍然是美国鸡爪最大的出口市场，出口量将近48万吨。 一个鸡爪重量大概是30-50克，取个平均值按照40克计算，48万吨就是120亿个鸡爪。 最近美国的养殖户也是十分头疼。 原本中国是最大的金主爸爸，鸡爪鱼头就指望买给中国了。 如果中国不买，就只有两个出路：要么找别的买家，要么本地消化做成猫粮狗粮。 如今在关税战的影响下，这几十万吨鸡爪几乎是销售无门。 如果不卖给中国人当食物，那就只能当做动物饲料处理，价格差了10倍不止，单是泰森食品企业一家公司，一年就得因为鸡爪出口不了中国少挣2.5亿美 元 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of Li Ping County since 2025 has been on enhancing investment attraction mechanisms, team building, project planning, and resource assurance to drive economic growth [1] - A comprehensive work mechanism has been established, including the issuance of the "2025 Li Ping County Industrial Investment Attraction Work Plan," leading to the signing of 5 key investment projects with a total investment of 815 million yuan [1] - The county has emphasized the importance of leadership in investment attraction, implementing a talent enhancement plan for investment staff, and conducting targeted outreach to industries such as deep processing of timber, tea, and oil tea [1] Group 2 - The county has identified and prioritized key projects, creating a dynamic investment attraction project database, with 20 key industry projects planned for this year, all reported for provincial and state scheduling [2] - A robust support network for investment attraction has been established, with a focus on coordinating departmental responsibilities and expediting the process for ongoing projects, aiming for early signing of projects like fresh agricultural product processing and biomass pellet production [2]

Group 1 - The conference held on May 13 in Shenyang focused on promoting high-quality development of enterprises in Liaoning Province, recognizing those that have made significant contributions to the region's revitalization efforts [3][4] - Nearly a thousand representatives from enterprises, financial institutions, and experts gathered to discuss cooperation and future development, emphasizing the importance of businesses in driving economic growth and innovation [3][4] - The provincial leadership expressed strong support for private enterprises, highlighting their essential role in the region's revitalization and the favorable business environment in Liaoning [4][5] Group 2 - Companies like Shenyang Chuanglian Information Technology Co., Ltd. have experienced significant growth in Liaoning, benefiting from the province's focus on digital transformation and industrial upgrades [4][6] - The conference showcased successful local enterprises, such as Danyang Group and Benxi Longshan Spring Beer Co., which attributed their success to both product quality and the supportive local business environment [6][7] - The event facilitated connections between businesses and government representatives, with initiatives aimed at improving the investment climate and providing comprehensive support for enterprise development [8][9] Group 3 - The conference highlighted the importance of policy support and top-level design in fostering high-quality enterprise development, with local governments actively engaging in creating a conducive business environment [5][9] - Tax authorities in Liaoning are implementing measures to support businesses, including optimizing tax services and enhancing digital platforms for easier compliance [9]

1、汽车股上行，蔚来涨超5%，吉利、小鹏涨超3%，零跑涨超2%。 今日上午港股 点击蓝字，关注我们 消息面上，中国4月新能源车厂商批发渗透率51.7%，同比上升11个百分点。4月新能源乘用车批发销 量达到113.3万辆，同比增长40.2%，环比增长0.3%；1-4月累计批发398.1万辆，增长42.1%。4月新能 源乘用车市场零售90.5万辆，同比增长33.9%，环比下降8.7%；1-4月累计零售332.4万辆，增长 35.7%。4月新能源乘用车厂商出口18.9万辆，同比增长44.2%，环比增长31.6%；1-4月累计出口59.0万 辆，增长26.7%。 2、汽配股早盘走高， 国泰海通称中资零部件企业在美竞争优势仍在。 敏实集团(00425) 涨4.07%； 德昌电机控股(00179) 涨3.58%； 耐世特(01316) 涨3.07%；京东方精电(00710)涨2.35%。 3、啤酒股普涨，华润啤酒涨超3%，百威亚太涨超2%，青岛啤酒涨超1%。 消息面上，东吴发布研 报称，25Q1啤酒板块恢复性增长。 4、KEEP涨超10% ，公司加速AI融合，或帮助打破用户规模与商业化规模天花板。 5、小米一度跌超6%， ...