上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 06 月 07 日 伊力特 (600197) —— 收入业绩承压，增长目标稳健 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 06 月 06 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 14.82 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 20.99/13.52 | | 市净率 | 1.7 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.63 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 7,012 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,385.36/10,183.70 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 8.53 | | 资产负债率% | 23.97 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 473/473 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 相关研究 《伊力特（600197）点评：24Q3 点评： 收入增长承压，业绩低于预期 》 2024/10/29 《伊力特（600197）点评 ...

25Q1 营业收入7.96 亿，同比下降4.32%。分产品看，高档酒营收6.20 亿，同比增长8.77%；中档酒营收 1.34 亿，同比下降30.8%；低档酒营收0.34 亿，同比下降40.9%。分区域看，省内营收6.95 亿，同比增 长3.49%，省外营收0.93 亿，同比下降37.9%。 2024 年净利率13.1%，同比下降2.44pct，净利率下降主因税金及附加占营收比与费用率提升。2024 年 毛利率52.3%，同比提升4.06pct，主因产品结构提升；税金及附加占营收比16.5%，同比提升2.27pct； 销售费用率11.9%，同比提升2.51pct，主因市场竞争加剧背景下，销售费用投入增加；管理费用（含研 发费用）率4.66%，同比提升0.25pct，主因职工薪酬占比有所提升。 事件：公司披露2024 年报及2025 年一季报，根据公司公告，24 年公司实现营业收入22.0亿，同比下降 1.27%，归母净利润2.86 亿，同比下降15.9%。24Q4 公司实现营收5.49亿，同比下降6.61%，归母净利润 0.45 亿，同比下降59.6%。25Q1 公司实现营业收入7.96 亿，同比下降4.32 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price set for the next six months [5][15]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 31.82 billion yuan and a net profit of 13.74 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2% and 2% respectively [2][4]. - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend ratio of no less than 65% for 2024, increasing to 70% and 75% in subsequent years, with an absolute amount not less than 8.5 billion yuan [1][2]. - The company is focusing on digital transformation and has implemented six strategic shifts to enhance operational efficiency and product offerings [2][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.35 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.59 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.78% and 0.41% respectively [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 86.51%, while the net profit margin was 49.11%, indicating slight declines compared to the previous year [2][4]. - The company’s operating cash flow decreased by 24.12% year-on-year to 3.31 billion yuan [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for the company is projected to grow to 31.82 billion yuan in 2025, with further increases to 33.70 billion yuan in 2026 and 36.41 billion yuan in 2027 [4][9]. - The net profit is expected to reach 13.74 billion yuan in 2025, with projections of 14.62 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.89 billion yuan in 2027 [4][9]. Valuation Metrics - The company is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.04 for 2023, which is expected to decrease to 11.70 by 2027 [4][9]. - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected to decline from 4.49 in 2023 to 3.11 in 2027 [4][9]. - The enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 13.52 in 2023 to 6.97 in 2027 [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The white liquor industry is experiencing a significant divergence among leading companies, with Fenjiu entering the top three, creating a new competitive landscape of "Mao, Wu, and Fen" [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Yanghe's revenue and net profit for 2024 were 28.876 billion and 6.673 billion respectively, showing declines of 12.83% and 33.37%, with net profit returning to 2017 levels [2] - Gujing Gongjiu reported revenue and net profit of 23.578 billion and 5.517 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth of 16.41% and 20.22%, achieving historical highs [2] - The revenue gap between Yanghe and Gujing Gongjiu has narrowed significantly over five years, with Yanghe's lead in revenue decreasing from 10.809 billion to 5.298 billion and in net profit from 5.627 billion to 1.151 billion [2] Group 2: Product Performance - Yanghe's mid-to-high-end liquor products saw a revenue decline of 14.79%, significantly impacting net profit, which fell more than revenue [4] - Gujing Gongjiu's mid-to-high-end products, particularly the year-round original series, achieved revenue of 18.086 billion, growing by 17.31% and accounting for 76.7% of total revenue [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - Yanghe's revenue from domestic and external markets fell by 11.43% and 14.35% respectively, indicating pressure in both areas [5] - Gujing Gongjiu maintained strong growth across all regions, with significant increases in Central, North, and South China [7] Group 4: Strategic Positioning - Yanghe claims to be undergoing a "proactive deceleration transformation" for sustainable development, although this has not aligned with market expectations [8] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with Yanghe facing challenges from both internal and external competitors, particularly in its home market [10][11] Group 5: Channel Effectiveness - Yanghe has the highest number of distributors at 8,866, but its average revenue per distributor is lower than Gujing Gongjiu's, indicating less channel efficiency [12] - Yanghe's distributor count increased by only 77, while Gujing Gongjiu added 448, reflecting a stronger market appeal for Gujing Gongjiu [14] Group 6: Industry Trends - The white liquor industry is shifting towards a new normal of stock competition and volume reduction, with Yanghe's challenges highlighting the need for strategic adjustments [15]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 31.196 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, up 1.71% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 6.893 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.88 billion yuan, down 29.86% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 9.352 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, with a net profit of 4.593 billion yuan, up 0.41% year-on-year [2][4][10]. - The company’s mid-to-high-end liquor revenue in 2024 was 27.585 billion yuan, an increase of 2.77% year-on-year, while other liquor revenue was 3.467 billion yuan, up 7.15% year-on-year [10]. - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, with a payout ratio of no less than 65%, 70%, and 75% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with a minimum total dividend of 8.5 billion yuan (including tax) [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2024 was 31.196 billion yuan, with a net profit of 13.473 billion yuan [2][10]. - Q4 2024 showed a significant decline in revenue and profit compared to the previous year [2][10]. - Q1 2025 demonstrated a slight recovery in revenue and profit [2][10]. Product and Channel Analysis - Mid-to-high-end liquor sales contributed significantly to revenue growth, while other liquor categories also saw positive growth [10]. - Traditional channels generated 29.573 billion yuan in revenue, up 3.2% year-on-year, while emerging channels contributed 1.479 billion yuan, an increase of 4.16% [10]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 decreased by 0.63 percentage points to 43.19%, and the gross margin fell by 0.76 percentage points to 87.54% [10]. - In Q1 2025, the net profit margin further declined by 0.67 percentage points to 49.11% [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain stable growth, with projected EPS of 9.44 yuan and 10.03 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 13.3 and 12.5 times [10].

公司报告 | 年报点评报告 伊力特（600197） 证券研究报告 结构持续升级，阶段性降速后静待花开 【业绩】24 年公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 22.03/ 2.86/2.78 亿元（yoy:-1.27%/-15.91%/-16.48%）。 2025Q1 公司营业收入/归母净利润/扣非归母净利润分别为 7.96/ 1.44/1.44 亿元（yoy:-4.32%/-9.29%/-9.76%）。 分红率：54.40%（23 年：53.24%） 25 年营收目标：23 亿元 24 年结构升级延续，费用投放加大。① 产品端：24 年高档/中档/低档产 品收入 15.29/5.06/1.34 亿元（yoy:+4.27%/-8.17%/-20.53%），公司中、低档 产品占比减少，结构升级趋势延续。② 盈利端：公司毛利率/净利率 +4.06/-2.44 个百分点至 52.28%/13.05%，毛利率提升或主因结构升级，24 年公司销售费用率/管理费用率/财务费用率同比变动+2.51/+0.25/+1.06 个 百分点至 11.92%/4.66%/1.23%，我们认为销售费用率上涨或因为 24Q1-3 ...

业绩整体承压，处于调整期。2025Q1总营收/归母净利润分别为15.76/3.46亿元，分别同比-25%/-37%。产品结构变化 致毛利率下滑，管理费用整体优化。2025Q1毛利率/净利率分别为69%/22%，分别同比-4.8/-4.2pcts。2025Q1销售/管理 费用率分别为19%/8%，分别同比+3.0/-0.01pcts。税费及购买商品接受劳务支出减少，经营净现金流大幅增长。 2025Q1经营净现金流/销售回款分别为2.24/16.23亿元，分别同比+107%/-15%。截至2025Q1末，公司合同负债2.06亿元 (环比+0.41亿元)。 电商渠道表现较好，省内市场相对稳健 华鑫证券有限责任公司孙山山,肖燕南近期对舍得酒业（600702）进行研究并发布了研究报告《公司事件点评报告： 业绩表现承压，期待弹性恢复》，给予舍得酒业买入评级。 舍得酒业 事件 2025年4月25日，舍得酒业发布2025年一季报。 投资要点 业绩短期承压，合同负债环比增长 宏观经济下行风险、舍得增速不及预期、老酒战略推进受阻、省外扩张不及预期、夜郎古销售不及预期、股份回购进 度低于预期、股权激励目标实现低于预期。 证券之星数 ...

2025 年 05 月 07 日 业绩表现承压，期待弹性恢复 买入(维持) 事件 | 分析师：孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | --- | --- | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人：肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | | 基本数据 | 2025-05-06 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 57.84 | | 总市值（亿元） | 193 | | 总股本（百万股） | 333 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 333 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 40.18-82.9 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 630.07 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《舍得酒业（600702）：业绩短 期承压，期待企稳回升》2025-03- 24 2、《舍得酒业（600702）：调整期 业绩承压，发布回购方案彰显信 心》2024-10-29 3、《舍得酒业（600702）：利润不 及预期，短期去库释放压力》2024- 08-22 2025 年 4 月 25 日，舍得酒业发 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517070016 SAC：S0490520030001 SAC：S0490522050003 SAC：S0490522090002 SFC：BQK487 SFC：BVF934 公司研究丨点评报告丨洋河股份（002304.SZ） [Table_Title] 洋河股份 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评： 延续去库存节奏，关注公司战略调整 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2024 年营业总收入 288.76 亿元（同比-12.83%）；归母净利润 66.73 亿元（同比-33.37%）。 公司 2024Q4 营业总收入 13.6 亿元（同比-52.17%）；归母净利润-19.05 亿元（同比扩亏）。公 司 2025Q1 营业总收入 110.66 亿元（同比-31.92%）；归母净利润 36.37 亿元（同比-39.93%）。 分析师及联系人 董思远 徐爽 朱梦兰 石智坤 伍爽 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 洋河股份（002304.SZ） cjzqdt1111 ...

东吴证券股份有限公司苏铖,郭晓东近期对洋河股份（002304）进行研究并发布了研究报告《2024年报及2025年一季 报点评：延续主动调整，静待经营改善》，给予洋河股份买入评级。 洋河股份 投资要点 事件：公司公告2024年报及2025年一季报，2024年营收288.76亿元，同比-12.83%，归母净利润66.73亿元，同 比-33.37%；其中24Q4营收13.60亿元，同比-52.17%，归母净利润-19.05亿元，去年同期为-1.88亿元。25Q1实现营收 110.66亿元，同比-31.92%，归母净利润36.37亿元，同比-39.93%。 2024年积极调整，但转型见效仍需时间。白酒行业进入存量竞争阶段，公司主力产品集中的中端和次高端价位承压较 大，因而积极调整经营策略，基础管理工作进一步夯实，但转型调整仍需时间。1)分产品来看，24年中高档酒、普通 酒营收分别同比-14.79%、-0.49%，预计核心品系均主动调整，梦系列下滑幅度略低于海天系列。2)分地区来看，24 年省内、省外营收分别同比-11.43%、-14.35%，后续将重点聚焦江苏和环苏市场，培育打造样板和高地市场，筑牢基 本盘。 产品结 ...