1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diversified trend, with different commodities having their own supply - demand situations, price trends, and influencing factors. For most commodities, the short - term trend is mainly volatile, and investors need to pay attention to various influencing factors such as supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and geopolitical situations [2][3] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: API data shows an increase in US refined oil and crude oil inventories. External market oil prices fell more than 1% on Tuesday. Although the SPM - 3 of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is expected to resume operation earlier than planned, the supply - demand surplus expansion determines that the oil price center has downward pressure [2] - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil's feed demand was previously boosted by coking profits and quota shortages, but the early issuance of crude oil quotas may divert feed demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil is pressured by the weakening of refined oil cracking. The short - term supply pressure of both has been relieved, but the medium - term supply is still in a loose pattern [19] - **Asphalt**: The domestic asphalt market shows a regional differentiation in spot prices. The weekly shipment volume has been below 400,000 tons since the middle of the month, and the commercial inventory destocking rhythm has slowed down significantly. It is expected that BU will continue to be weak [20] Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated with large intraday volatility. Silver's upward momentum slowed after hitting a record high, and gold broke through the previous high. Overall, precious metals should be treated as volatile, and chasing high prices should be cautious. Platinum has a supply gap this year, and palladium's supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance, with platinum performing stronger than palladium [3] Base Metals - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fluctuated and closed down, approaching the short - term moving average. SHFE copper shows certain resilience in the previous trading intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions can be held based on the MA5 moving average [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, SHFE aluminum fluctuated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major regions has increased slightly for two consecutive days, and the spot discount has slightly widened. The aluminum market's fundamental contradictions are limited, and the seasonal inventory performance is neutral. The casting aluminum - alloy and SHFE aluminum price gap may narrow at the end of the year [5] - **Alumina**: Overnight, alumina hit a new low since listing. The domestic operating capacity is at a historical high, the inventory and exchange warehouse receipts are rising, and the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change. It will mainly operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [6] - **Zinc**: The domestic fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand, while overseas zinc ingots are in short supply. LME zinc is operating at a high level, and the export window is open, pulling up the domestic market. The bottom support of zinc is strong, but consumption is restricted. SHFE zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [7] - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level, and the import window is open, transmitting the overseas surplus pressure to the domestic market. The domestic social inventory is at a low level of 35,000 tons, and the subsequent inventory accumulation pressure is limited. SHFE lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8] - **Tin**: Overnight, LME tin closed down, and SHFE tin fluctuated with a positive line above 300,000 yuan. It is not recommended to chase high prices, and medium - and long - term short positions can be paired with hedging strategies [9] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon market is driven down by the correction of polysilicon prices. The current supply - demand shows a double - weak pattern, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The subsequent focus should be on the price trend of DMC [10] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Night - session steel prices declined. Thread's apparent demand and production both decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's demand declined, production continued to rise, and inventory decreased slowly. The overall steel mills are in a loss state, and the supply pressure will gradually ease. The steel price is expected to continue the rebound trend with fluctuations [12] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market shows a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The global shipment is strong, the domestic arrival volume is high, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend. The demand for iron ore has the possibility of further weakening. The market expects policy benefits, and the short - term trend is mainly volatile [13] - **Coke**: The intraday coke price fluctuated strongly. The market has certain expectations for downstream restocking. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coke price is expected to maintain the rebound rhythm in the short term [14] - **Coking Coal**: The intraday coking coal price fluctuated strongly. The market may expect downstream restocking. The overall carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand has some resilience. The coking coal price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [15] - **Manganese Silicon**: The intraday manganese silicon price fluctuated. The spot price of manganese ore has increased due to the rebound of the futures market. The supply of silicon manganese is decreasing, and the inventory is slowly accumulating. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [16] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The intraday silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated. The market expects a decrease in power costs and semi - coke prices. The overall demand has some resilience. The supply of silicon ferrosilicon is decreasing, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The bottom support strength needs to be observed [17] Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: The urea futures price continued to fluctuate upward. The production enterprises are continuously reducing inventory, and short - term exports relieve some supply - side pressure. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range [21] - **Methanol**: The night - session methanol price fell slightly. The port inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and the production enterprises are accumulating inventory. The market is in a state of multi - empty game, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate within a certain range in the short term [22] - **Pure Benzene**: The pure benzene futures price continued to fluctuate at a low level. The weekly device operating rate decreased slightly, the domestic arrival volume is expected to be high, and the downstream demand decreased. The market is expected to continue the low - level fluctuation pattern [23] - **Styrene**: The cost side of styrene is under pressure due to the continuous inventory accumulation expectation of pure benzene. The supply - demand structure is stable, and it is expected to run weakly in the short term [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: Propylene's chemical - downstream demand has some support, and the price has a slight upward trend. The overall supply of polyethylene changes little, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC shows an oscillating trend. The export situation may improve, and the supply pressure may ease. It is expected to operate in a low - level range. Caustic soda shows an oscillating and weakening trend, with high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [26] - **PX and PTA**: The prices of PX and PTA are driven down by the decline in oil prices. PTA continues to reduce production, and the short - term demand impact is negative. PX is expected to be strong in the medium term, and PTA is expected to continue the cost - driven logic before the Spring Festival [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The weekly production of ethylene glycol decreased, and the supply has marginal improvement. The price is mainly volatile, but it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory around the Spring Festival, and the medium - term trend is weak [28] - **Short Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Short fiber has no new investment pressure, and the price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. Bottle chip demand weakens, and the production efficiency is still poor. The long - term pressure is over - capacity, and the price is mainly cost - driven [29] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The South American soybean planting progress is different, with Brazil normal and Argentina slow. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient, the soybean meal inventory has risen to a high level, and the price is under pressure. The 05 contract has reached the upper edge of the oscillation range, and the upward breakthrough needs further observation [33] - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: Palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation, with supply reduction having marginal benefits. The price is expected to be in a range - bound state. Soybean oil is expected to be supported by the expected strong performance of US soybeans [34] - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed price continues to oscillate at the bottom. Rapeseed meal demand is weak, and rapeseed oil is mainly in the process of inventory reduction. The short - term price is expected to oscillate within a range [35] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybeans show a sideways and slightly strong oscillation. High - protein soybeans have a tight supply, and US soybeans are expected to be strong. The short - term focus should be on the domestic spot market and policy guidance [36] - **Corn**: The spot price drives the corn futures to oscillate at a high level. The supply - demand mismatch still exists, and the short - term 01 contract should be observed, while the 03 and 05 contracts should wait for a callback [37] - **Hogs**: Hog futures fluctuate narrowly, and the spot price continues to decline slightly. The short - term supply and demand are both under pressure, and the medium - term price is likely to have a second bottom - testing [38] - **Eggs**: Egg futures rose sharply during the day and then fell back. The far - month contracts are not recommended to chase high prices, and the near - month contracts may oscillate weakly [39] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell slightly. The domestic cotton supply pressure is not large, and the new cotton sales progress is fast. After the breakthrough of Zhengzhou cotton, the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities, and the operation should be temporarily observed [40] - **Sugar**: International sugar supply is relatively sufficient, and the US sugar price is under pressure. The domestic sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be relatively good, and the subsequent production situation should be concerned [41] - **Apples**: The apple futures price oscillates at a high level. The short - term price is strong due to the decrease in inventory, but the long - term far - month contracts may have inventory pressure. The focus should be on the inventory reduction situation [42] - **Wood**: The wood futures price oscillates. The low inventory provides certain support, and the operation should be temporarily observed [43] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price rose sharply yesterday. The domestic port inventory is still at a high level, and the demand is weak. The medium - term trend is expected to be in the range - bound state, and the operation should be temporarily observed or short - term [44] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market fell with reduced trading volume, and the index futures contracts all closed down. The short - term macro - liquidity factor is uncertain, and the strategy should be mainly observation and defense [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures oscillate and consolidate. The bond market sentiment is generally cautious, and the short - term bond market is difficult to break through the oscillating market. The long - end interest rate lacks the basis for a large - scale increase, and the yield curve may flatten slightly [46]

Report Information - Report date: October 20, 2025 [3] - Report title: Full Variety Spread Daily Report [3] Core Data Summary Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: Spot price 5558, futures price 5430, basis 128, basis rate 2.36%, historical quantile 73.10% [1] - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: Spot price 5718, historical quantile 65.20% [1] - **Rebar (RB2601)**: Spot price 3200, futures price 3037, basis 66, basis rate 2.06%, historical quantile 66.70% [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: Spot price 3270, futures price 3204, historical quantile 46.10% [1] - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 832, futures price 771, basis 61, basis rate 7.91%, historical quantile 49.60% [1] - **Coke (J2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 1676, futures price 1603, basis - 73, basis rate - 4.38%, historical quantile 26.49% [1] - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: Spot price (equivalent price) 1257, futures price 1179, basis 78, basis rate 6.62%, historical quantile 45.50% [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: Spot price 84775, futures price 84390, basis 385, basis rate 0.46%, historical quantile 82.08% [1] - **Aluminum (AL2512)**: Spot price 20950, futures price 20910, basis 40, basis rate 0.19%, historical quantile 68.12% [1] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: Spot price 2921, futures price 2800, basis 121, historical quantile 60.13% [1] - **Zinc (ZN2511)**: Spot price 21815, futures price 21780, basis - 35, basis rate - 0.16%, historical quantile 52.29% [1] - **Tin (SN2511)**: Spot price 281000, futures price 280750, basis 250, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 57.70% [1] - **Nickel (NI251)**: Spot price 121550, futures price 121160, basis 390, basis rate 0.32%, historical quantile 76.87% [1] - **Stainless Steel (SS2512)**: Spot price 13170, futures price 12630, basis 540, basis rate 4.28%, historical quantile 92.25% [1] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2511)**: Spot price 75700, futures price 73350, basis - 2350, basis rate - 3.10%, historical quantile 23.12% [1] - **Industrial Silicon (SI2511)**: Spot price 9350, futures price 920, historical quantile 61.14% [1] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal (M2601)**: Spot price 2870, futures price 2868, basis 2, basis rate 0.07%, historical quantile 35.00% [1] - **Soybean Oil (Y2601)**: Spot price 8410, futures price 8256, basis 154, basis rate 1.87%, historical quantile 32.10% [1] - **Palm Oil (P2601)**: Spot price 9308, futures price 9230, basis - 78, basis rate - 0.84%, historical quantile 7.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Meal (RM601)**: Spot price 2470, futures price 2306, basis 164, basis rate 7.11%, historical quantile 74.00% [1] - **Rapeseed Oil (Ol601)**: Spot price 10160, futures price 9861, basis 299, basis rate 3.03%, historical quantile 80.30% [1] - **Corn (C2601)**: Spot price 2130, futures price 2117, basis 13, basis rate 0.61%, historical quantile 49.80% [1] - **Corn Starch (CS2511)**: Spot price 2550, futures price 2374, basis 176, basis rate 7.41%, historical quantile 83.10% [1] - **Live Hogs (LH2601)**: Spot price 11670, futures price 11250, basis - 420, basis rate - 3.60%, historical quantile 30.90% [1] - **Eggs (JD2511)**: Spot price 3000, futures price 2805, basis 195, basis rate 6.95%, historical quantile 48.00% [1] - **Cotton (CF601)**: Spot price 13335, futures price 1182, basis 14517, basis rate 8.86%, historical quantile 79.80% [1] - **Sugar (SR601)**: Spot price 5810, futures price 5412, basis 398, basis rate 7.35%, historical quantile 70.60% [1] - **Apples (AP601)**: Spot price 8625, futures price 8600, basis - 25, basis rate - 0.29%, historical quantile 16.20% [1] - **Red Dates (CJ601)**: Spot price 11420, futures price 9600, basis - 1820, basis rate - 15.94%, historical quantile 19.30% [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Paraxylene (PX601)**: Spot price 6432, futures price 6292, basis 140, basis rate 2.20%, historical quantile 12.40% [1] - **PTA (TA601)**: Spot price 4402, futures price 4330, basis - 72, basis rate - 2.04%, historical quantile 20.00% [1] - **Ethylene Glycol (EG2601)**: Spot price 4075, futures price 4003, basis 72, basis rate 1.05%, historical quantile 75.10% [1] - **Polyester Staple Fiber (PF512)**: Spot price 6290, futures price 6036, basis 254, basis rate 2.20%, historical quantile 74.10% [1] - **Styrene (EB2511)**: Spot price 6495, futures price 6483, basis 12, basis rate 0.97%, historical quantile 75.10% [1] - **Methanol (MA601)**: Spot price 2272, futures price 2272, basis 0, basis rate 0.0%, historical quantile 53.90% [1] - **Urea (UR601)**: Spot price 1602, futures price 1560, basis - 42, basis rate - 2.25%, historical quantile 5.40% [1] - **LLDPE (L2601)**: Spot price 6975, futures price 6874, basis 101, basis rate 1.86%, historical quantile 56.80% [1] - **PP (PP2601)**: Spot price 6565, futures price 6551, basis 14, basis rate 0.21%, historical quantile 48.10% [1] - **PVC (V2601)**: Spot price 4688, futures price 4600, basis 88, basis rate 1.88%, historical quantile 32.50% [1] - **Caustic Soda (SH601)**: Spot price 2593.8, futures price 2344, basis 249.8, basis rate 5.41%, historical quantile 70.90% [1] - **LPG (PG2512)**: Spot price 4498, futures price 4220, basis 278, basis rate 6.21%, historical quantile 47.80% [1] - **Asphalt (BU2601)**: Spot price 3380, futures price 3135, basis 245, basis rate 7.25%, historical quantile 93.40% [1] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR2512)**: Spot price 11000, futures price 10925, basis 75, basis rate 0.68%, historical quantile 61.40% [1] - **Glass (FG601)**: Spot price 1095, futures price 1072, basis 23, basis rate 2.10%, historical quantile 66.59% [1] - **Soda Ash (SA601)**: Spot price 1209, futures price 1154, basis 55, basis rate 4.77%, historical quantile 18.90% [1] - **Natural Rubber (RU2601)**: Spot price 14695, futures price 14250, basis - 445, basis rate - 3.12%, historical quantile 73.33% [1] Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: - **IF2512.CFE**: Spot price 4514.2, futures price 4485.2, basis - 29, basis rate - 0.65%, historical quantile 13.90% [1] - **IH2512.CFE**: Spot price 2967.8, futures price 2963, basis - 4.8, basis rate - 0.16%, historical quantile 35.10% [1] - **IC2512.CFE**: Spot price 6863.2, futures price 7016.1, basis - 152.9, basis rate - 2.23%, historical quantile 0.50% [1] - **IM2512.CFE**: Spot price 7020.8, futures price 7185.5, basis - 164.7, basis rate - 2.35%, historical quantile 7.80% [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **2 - year Treasury Bond (TS2512)**: Spot price 102.37, futures price 99.94, basis - 0.02, basis rate - 0.02%, historical quantile 20.00% [1] - **5 - year Treasury Bond (TF2512)**: Spot price 105.72, futures price 99.39, basis - 0.04, basis rate - 0.04%, historical quantile 21.80% [1] - **10 - year Treasury Bond (T2512)**: Spot price 108.10, futures price 100.19, basis 0.05, basis rate 0.09%, historical quantile 21.10% [1] - **30 - year Treasury Bond (TL2512)**: Spot price 129.31, futures price 114.48, basis 0.28, basis rate 0.25%, historical quantile 37.50% [1]