Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - This week, the tin price rose significantly due to supply - side disturbances. Although the emerging fields such as AI servers have optimistic demand for tin, the industry is still in the post - holiday resumption transition period, and the real demand has not been effectively reflected. Considering the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase high. In the short term, the tin price is expected to operate in a wide range at a high level. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, the increment of imported tin concentrates in China was obvious, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The physical quantity of imported tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from different regions had different changes [12] - Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased and the recovery after the festival was slow. Jiangxi was still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained stable [12] - Demand side: After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, but the willingness to inquire and place orders was low, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the overall market trading was light. The global visible tin inventory increased seasonally. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with before the festival; LME tin inventory was 7,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the same period last month [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the spot price of tin fluctuated with the futures, and the premium and discount remained stable [19] 3. Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuated around 6,000 tons. The processing fee of tin concentrates rebounded from a low level. The processing fee of 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan increased from 7,000 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the marginal alleviation of tin ore shortage [24][27] 4. Supply Side - The output of domestic refined tin and recycled tin remained basically stable. In January, the output of domestic refined tin was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the output of recycled tin was 3,320 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were at a low level. In December 2025, the import volume of domestic refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [32][35][41] 5. Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. In terms of consumer electronics, in December, the output of domestic PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the output of domestic smartphones was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In the white - goods sector, the sales volume of washing machines increased rapidly, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.8% in the first 12 months. Other products performed relatively average. The cumulative year - on - year increase of air conditioners was 0.7%, that of refrigerators was 1.6%, and that of color TVs decreased by 2.6%. The combined year - on - year growth rate of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2%. In the tin - consumption fields, the tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year, and the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in 2025. In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [46][49][52] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory level increased steadily. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with the previous Friday [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected tight supply of domestic tin ore supports the tin price. The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, Indonesia, and the decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. Despite the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the supply - demand tightness may not change, and the Fed's expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance - sheet reduction, along with the preliminary Sino - US economic and trade negotiation plan, may make the Shanghai tin price trend stronger [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On October 24, 2025, the closing price was 281,230, up 1,890 from the previous day; the trading volume was 70,781 lots; the open interest was 38,076 lots; the inventory was 5,567 tons. The Shanghai tin basis (SMM 1 tin average price - futures price) was - 2,400, down 1,170 from the previous day. The spreads between different - month contracts also changed [1] - **LME Tin Futures**: On October 24, 2025, the LME 3 - month tin futures closing price (electronic trading) was 35,725, down 75 from the previous day. The LME tin futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 129, up 43 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 203.4, up 10 from the previous day. The LME tin global inventory was 2,750 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are resuming production slowly, and Indonesia has closed 1,000 illegal tin mines. The decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased (or remained flat) compared with last week [1] - **Demand**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month. High tin prices have led downstream buyers to make fewer purchases on a just - in - time basis [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week [1] 3. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 260,000 - 270,000 and the resistance level around 290,000 - 300,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,000 - 35,000 and the resistance level around 38,000 - 40,000 for London tin [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly - Tin [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Author: Wang Wenhu [2] - Contact: 021 - 51801878 [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations weighs on tin prices, but the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt of balance - sheet reduction, along with the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, is unlikely to change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be weak first and then strong. Investors are advised to mainly buy on price dips, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's future interest rate cut and halt of balance - sheet reduction expectations and the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is below the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the Fed's expectations and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in LME, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [10] - The inventory of refined tin in SHFE decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in LME increased compared with last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [12] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrate is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines [18][19] - The production (import) volume of Chinese tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. Factors include the resumption of mines in Myanmar, Indonesia's mine policies, and the situation in other countries [21][23] - The production volume of Chinese recycled tin in October increased month - on - month [24][25] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined tin increased compared with last week. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October increased (decreased) month - on - month [26][28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month due to the production plans of foreign mines and export forecasts [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production (import, export) volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [41][43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries increased compared with last week. As tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect tin demand [44][46]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].