供给扰动带动锡价大幅 上涨 锡周报 2026/02/28 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本端：12月国内进口锡精矿增量明显，原料端供应紧缺有所缓解。2025年12月我国进口锡精矿实物量17637吨，折金属5191.6吨，环比增 长13.3%，同比增长40.2%。主要进口国看，非洲地区进口总量2375吨，减少11.1%；缅甸993吨，增长14.3%；澳大利亚912吨，增长91.5%； 南美地区进口总量426吨，增长118.5%。 ◆ 供给端：春节云南地区冶炼厂开工率下降，节后恢复偏慢。江西地区仍受废料供应不足影响，粗锡供应偏紧，精锡产量延续偏低水平。整体 来看，在原料约束尚未明显缓解的背景下，国内冶炼厂开工以持稳为主。 ◆ 需求端：需求方面，节后下游陆续复工，询价挂单意愿较低，客户观望情绪较为浓厚，成交以刚需为主，市场整体交投表现较淡。库存方面， 本周全球 ...

Group 1 - The metal tin is experiencing a unique "dual life" in 2025, serving both as a cultural product in the consumer market and as a critical industrial material in the global supply chain [1] - The transformation of tin crafts has shifted from mere decoration to a blend of "practical aesthetics" and "emotional interaction," appealing to modern consumers [1][2] - Innovative designs such as "mortise and tenon tin art" have emerged, allowing for customizable and interactive products that resonate with traditional craftsmanship [2] Group 2 - The demand for tin, particularly solder tin, has surged due to the rapid growth in global photovoltaic installations and electric vehicle production, highlighting its essential role in the energy transition [3] - The industrial sector is increasingly focusing on high-value custom orders, driven by the unexpected popularity of cultural products, while also adapting to stricter environmental regulations [3] - Recycling technologies for tin are gaining attention as a means to address resource and environmental pressures, enabling efficient extraction from electronic waste and industrial residues [3][5] Group 3 - The tin industry encompasses a complete value chain from resource acquisition to refined products, with the primary raw material being tin ore, which is processed into refined tin with a purity of over 99.9% [4] - Most refined tin is alloyed to create functional materials tailored for various industrial applications, such as lead-free solder alloys for electronics and bronze for wear-resistant parts [4] - Recycled tin is becoming increasingly important in green manufacturing, sourced from electronic waste and achieving electronic-grade quality, thus supporting supply chain resilience and circular economy practices [5] Conclusion - The resilience of tin as a metal is evident in its ability to adapt to modern demands, merging cultural significance with industrial necessity, and showcasing a potential for similar transformations in other traditional materials [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, it is predicted that the US dollar will remain relatively volatile, and its impact on tin prices throughout the year will be relatively neutral. The first half of 2026 will be in a shortage pattern of weak supply and demand, and there will be marginal relaxation around the middle of the year as Wa State in Myanmar resumes production. The supply side will see significant incremental releases, with marginal relaxation mainly from the resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, and increased production in Indonesia. Attention should also be paid to disturbances in African producing areas such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and the supply pattern may be tight in the first half and loose in the second half. The demand side shows that the AI sector has a fast growth rate but a small base, while most terminal demands remain sluggish. Globally, the supply in 2026 will be 369,000 tons with a growth rate of 0.3%, the total demand will be 378,000 tons with a growth rate of -0.8%, and the supply-demand balance gap will be 9,000 tons. In China, the supply will be about 182,000 tons, the demand will be about 185,000 tons, and there may be a supply-demand gap of 3,000 tons. The strategy recommends a buy-on-dip approach in the first half of the year, closely monitoring overseas production increases or disturbances, and suggests an option strategy mainly based on buying calls, as well as considering internal-external positive arbitrage and inter-month positive arbitrage strategies [2][109][111]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Tin Price Trend Review - In 2025, the overall price center of Shanghai Tin showed an obvious upward trend. Frequent disruptions in major producing countries such as Myanmar, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia, combined with the start of the macro - interest rate cut cycle and the improvement of semiconductor prosperity, jointly drove the tin price up. By December 18, the annual increase of Shanghai Tin was 36.68%, making it the top - gainer among the six non - ferrous metals. In the overseas market, the increase of LME Tin was even stronger, with a 48.54% increase in the 3M futures by December 17. In terms of positions and trading volume, by December 12, the position of Shanghai Tin was 118,433 lots, at a high level in the past year, and the weekly trading volume was 1,606,972 lots, also at a high level compared with the same period in history. The price fluctuations can be divided into three stages: from New Year's Day to around Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the price fluctuated upward and then rose sharply; from after Tomb - Sweeping Festival to mid - year, the price dropped significantly and then recovered; in the second half of the year, the price started to rise and showed a smooth upward trend [6][11][14]. 3.2 2026 Tin Fundamental Market Outlook 3.2.1 US Dollar Index - It is expected that the US dollar will remain relatively volatile in 2026, with a relatively neutral impact on tin prices throughout the year. Attention should be paid to whether the restart of the US government in Q1 2026 can bring compensatory growth. The US dollar index is considered to be in a relatively balanced state in both the medium - long - term and short - term valuation systems, with limited one - sided driving forces. The annual fluctuation range of the US dollar index is expected to be 96 - 108, with an upward - risk bias, and the Q1 2026 fluctuation range is 97.7 - 102. The judgment on the US dollar in 2026 is based on the current balanced valuation. Factors such as economic relative strength, monetary policy expectations, carry trading, and currency group strength differentiation should be considered [18][19]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - **Myanmar Wa State**: The resumption of production in Wa State has been delayed, and the release of incremental production is slow. The current production suspension can be traced back to April 2023, lasting for more than two years. Although some mining licenses were approved in July 2025, the actual resumption progress is still slow. The factors affecting the resumption include the increase in production costs due to the 30% physical tax, the difficulty in recovering the mining scale, and short - term marginal improvement after the end of abnormal weather. It is expected that the year - on - year decline in monthly shipments will gradually narrow, and the market generally expects the resumption of production around June 2026. The estimated annual incremental import of tin ore from Myanmar to China in 2026 compared with 2025 is about 5,190 metal tons, mainly concentrated in the second half of the year [23][26][28]. - **Democratic Republic of the Congo**: The armed conflict led by the M23 armed organization has escalated, threatening the production and transportation of the Bisie tin mine. It is expected that the recent conflict will bring a marginal reduction of about 1,750 tons in 2026 production. If the impact in 2026 is similar to that in 2025, the conflict is expected to cause a marginal reduction of about 1,750 tons, and the increase in production will be hindered, with an impact of about 400 tons on China's imports [35][36]. - **Other Countries**: In 2025, the import of tin ore from some countries increased. From January to October 2025, the import of tin ore from Australia increased by 6.68% year - on - year (an increase of 1,421.49 tons), from Nigeria by 71.14% (an increase of 6,552.78 tons), and from Bolivia by 81.81% (an increase of 6,249.73 tons). In 2026, if Myanmar's imports increase year - on - year and other countries continue to grow, the overall import may have a large increase. However, there is uncertainty in Nigeria's mining suspension plan, and Bolivia is expected to achieve steady growth [42][43]. - **Global New Capacity Expansion**: In 2026, the new tin mine projects that may be put into production have an annual capacity of about 13,160 tons, and about 6,660 tons are relatively certain. In 2027, it is about 8,950 tons, and there are also 18,200 tons with undetermined production times. Some projects have a risk of delay, such as the Rentails project in Australia and the impact of the acquisition of Atlantic Tin by Xingye Yinxing on the Achmmach tin mine [56][57][59]. - **Indonesia**: In 2025, the export of tin ingots in Indonesia increased significantly. From January to October 2025, the export of tin ingots was 40,134 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.72%. It is expected that the production of tin ingots in Indonesia will continue to grow in 2026, with the state - owned enterprise PT Timah planning a production of 30,000 tons in 2026, an increase of 8,500 tons compared with 2025. The export of tin ingots is expected to be 55,000 - 60,000 tons in 2026, with an increase of about 6,500 tons. However, the first quarter of 2026 is the seasonal off - season for tin ingot exports in Indonesia [62][63]. - **Domestic**: In 2025, the production of domestic tin ingots was restricted by raw material supply, with a year - on - year decline of 2.91% from January to November. The average operating rate of domestic refined tin enterprises in November was 66.3%, a year - on - year decline of 4.2 percentage points and a month - on - month decline of 0.51 percentage points. In 2026, the growth of tin ingot production still depends on the raw material supply led by the resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar. The tax policy uncertainty brought by Document No. 770 has affected the production of recycled tin, and the production of recycled tin ingots from January to November 2025 decreased by 21.19% year - on - year. If the tax problem is not resolved in 2026, the production of recycled tin will still face a decline [68][69]. 3.2.3 Demand Side - **AI Field**: In 2025, the AI investment of technology giants continued to heat up, and the data center business of leading chip manufacturers achieved high growth. It is expected that this field will maintain high growth in 2026, providing an increase in demand for tin solder. The estimated tin consumption in data centers in 2026 is about 512 tons, which is not large in scale but has long - term growth potential [74][83]. - **Consumer Electronics**: In 2025, the global consumer electronics market was divided. The smartphone market was sluggish, with the global smartphone shipments increasing by only 1.56% year - on - year in the first three quarters, and it is expected to decline by 0.9% in 2026. The PC market entered an iteration cycle due to the end of Microsoft's support for Windows 10, and the shipments increased by 7.12% year - on - year in the first three quarters. In 2026, the squeezing of upstream memory capacity by AI may affect the consumer electronics market, and the increase in memory prices may lead to a small decrease of less than 1% in market demand [84][86][87]. - **Photovoltaic**: In 2025, the new policies in the photovoltaic field led to a rush - to - install boom in the first half of the year, but the new installations decreased significantly in the third quarter. In 2026, affected by the high - base effect and the promotion of electricity price marketization, the new installations in the photovoltaic field are expected to be flat. It is estimated that the new domestic photovoltaic installations in 2026 will be 200GW, a year - on - year decrease of 33%, and the new overseas installations will be 293GW, a year - on - year increase of 11%. Globally, the new installations are expected to be about 493GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13%, and the tin demand in the photovoltaic field will decrease by 18.8% [95][96][97]. - **Electric Vehicles**: In 2026, the growth rate of the global electric vehicle demand will tend to be moderate, and the improvement of the market penetration rate of the structural market is the core logic. It is estimated that the global total sales of electric vehicles will increase by 13% year - on - year to 23.75 million units, and the domestic demand in China will increase by 11% to 15.66 million units. The tin demand in 2026 is expected to increase by 3.9% year - on - year. China, Western Europe, and emerging Asian regions are the core driving regions, while the American market may have a negative impact [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic tin prices fluctuated strongly. The main reasons were the positive macro - atmosphere and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, which led to high ore prices and pushed up the center of tin prices. - On the supply side, the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar was slow. The shortage of tin mines in Yunnan was still severe, with smelters' raw material inventory generally less than 30 days and low operating rates. Some smelting enterprises planned to conduct maintenance in September, further suppressing production. In Jiangxi, smelting enterprises maintained normal production, but the shortage of crude tin supply made it difficult to increase refined tin production. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - On the demand side, it was the off - season for downstream consumption. Traditional consumption areas were weak. Although AI computing power increased some tin demand, the scale was still low, having limited impact on overall demand. The spot trading of tin was light due to weak terminal demand. - Overall, although the off - season consumption on the demand side was a bit weak, the short - term decline in supply was obvious. It is expected that tin prices will fluctuate mainly. [12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost end: Although the mining licenses in Wa State, Myanmar have been approved, the resumption progress is slow. It is expected that the tin ore supply will not significantly recover until the fourth quarter. In July, the domestic tin ore import volume was 10,200 tons (equivalent to about 4,335 metal tons), a month - on - month decrease of 13.71% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, 688 metal tons less than in June. - Supply end: The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the shortage of tin mines in Yunnan led to low smelter operating rates. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. - Demand end: The consumption of electronic products such as smartphones and tablets was sluggish. The growth of emerging industries such as servers and AI glasses was fast but the scale was low, having limited impact on tin solder demand. After the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation, the component production decreased, leading to a significant decline in the demand for photovoltaic solder strips. The demand for tin in areas such as tin - plated sheets and chemicals was relatively stable. Downstream enterprises generally had low inventory levels and mainly purchased on - demand at low prices. [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market No specific analysis content is provided, only figures about the basis of Shanghai tin main contract and LME tin premium/discount are presented. [19] 3.3 Cost End - The short - term supply of tin ore is generally tight, and the processing fees remain at a low level. [27] 3.4 Supply End - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar is slow. Yunnan has a severe shortage of tin mines, and smelters' raw material inventory is generally less than 30 days. Some smelting enterprises in Yunnan plan to conduct maintenance in September, and the refined tin production in Jiangxi is difficult to increase due to the shortage of crude tin supply. It is estimated that the refined tin production in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. [12] 3.5 Demand End - Semiconductor: China's semiconductor sales growth rate rebounded slightly, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. - Electronics: In the second quarter of 2025, the global PC shipments increased by 8.4% year - on - year. Mobile phone consumption continued to be sluggish, and it is predicted that the global smartphone shipments in 2025 will increase by 0.6% year - on - year to 1.24 billion units. The "trade - in" subsidy policy in the first half of the year stimulated the growth of consumer electronics to some extent, but the demand recovery was limited. - Automobile: In the first half of 2025, the new energy vehicle production increased by 40% year - on - year. - Home appliances: No overall summary is provided, but data on the production of various home appliances such as washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, and color TVs are presented. - Photovoltaic: There was a phased rush - installation in the first five months, with the installation volume growing by nearly 100% year - on - year. After the end of the rush - installation in June, the installation volume declined significantly. - Other: Tin consumption in the tin - plate field continued to decline, while the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in the first half of the year. [46][49][55] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance A supply - demand balance table from January 2023 to June 2025 is provided, including data on refined tin production, export, import, social inventory, social inventory change, and apparent consumption. [73]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].