Core Insights - The WTO has revised its global trade growth forecast for 2025 upwards to 2.4%, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports before tariff hikes, and strong trade growth in other regions [1][5] - However, the forecast for 2026 has been significantly downgraded to 0.5%, indicating potential challenges ahead [1][5] Group 1: Trade Growth Drivers - In the first half of 2025, global merchandise trade volume is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year, with a 6% increase in current dollar terms following a 2% growth in 2024 [4] - Key drivers of this growth include early North American imports, favorable macroeconomic conditions such as deflation and supportive fiscal policies, and robust growth in emerging markets [4] - AI-related products, including semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, contributed nearly half of the overall trade growth, with a year-on-year value increase of 20% [4] Group 2: Trade Forecast Adjustments - The WTO anticipates that global merchandise trade growth will slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.4% in 2025 and further to 0.5% in 2026, reflecting the impact of higher tariffs and trade policy uncertainties [5] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 is set at 2.7%, with a slight decrease to 2.6% in 2026 [5] - The WTO emphasizes that the main downside risks to this forecast include the spread of trade restrictions and policy uncertainties across more economies and sectors [5] Group 3: Regional Trade Performance - Asia and Africa are expected to achieve the fastest export growth in 2025, while North America is projected to experience a decline [6] - By 2026, export performance in North America and Europe is expected to improve, although all regions are anticipated to see a decline in import performance [6] Group 4: Impact on Services Trade - The WTO has downgraded its forecast for global commercial services trade due to indirect impacts from tariffs, with transportation and tourism sectors expected to see reduced growth rates [7] - The expected growth rate for transportation services in 2025 is 2.5%, down from 4.5% in 2024, while tourism is projected to grow by 3.1%, a decrease from 11% the previous year [7] - Digital services are expected to show slightly stronger growth, with a forecast of 6.1% compared to 5.7% in 2024 [7]