Global Markets Strategy 09 September 2025 This material is neither intended to be distributed to Mainland China investors nor to provide securities investment consultancy services within the territory of Mainland China. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. China Equity Strategy Anti-involution (vol 3): why it matters to equities and JPM's top picks We provide a third update on the "anti-involution" theme following our ini ...

Summary of Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing - **Market Focus**: Mid- to high-end segments of China's NEV market, with a price range of Rmb150,000-300,000 [10][10] Key Points from the Conference Call Sales Targets - **Domestic Sales Target for 2026**: 1 million units [2][3] - **Overseas Sales Target for 2026**: 100,000 to 150,000 units [2][4] Product Launch Strategy - **New Model Launches**: Management plans to introduce 4-5 new models in 2026, including: - Two A-series models priced between Rmb50,000-100,000 - Two D-series models priced between Rmb200,000-300,000 [3][3] - **Expected Contributions**: - Existing models (C10, C11, B10) to contribute 10,000 units each per month - New A-series models to achieve 25,000 units in total average monthly sales - New D-series models to achieve 15,000 average unit sales per month [3][3] Sales Performance - **Recent Sales Figures**: Leapmotor recorded 57,000 unit sales in August, with 6,000 units sold overseas [4][4] - **Volume Drivers**: EREV and PHEV models are expected to be the main volume drivers in overseas markets, particularly in South America [4][4] Financial Valuation - **Current Stock Valuation**: Trading at 0.8x 2026E Price/Sales (P/S) compared to competitors: - XPeng: 1.5x - Li Auto: 0.9x - Nio: 0.8x [5][5] Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: HK$90.4 billion (approximately US$11.6 billion) [6][6] - **Price Target**: HK$25.00 with a current price of HK$64.25, indicating a "Sell" rating [6][6] - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected revenues to grow from Rmb12,385 million in 2022 to Rmb47,156 million in 2025E [8][8] Profitability and Risks - **Profitability Outlook**: Expected EBIT margin improvement from -42.2% in 2022 to 2.7% by 2029E [8][8] - **Risks**: - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand and favorable policy support [11][11] - Downside risks include weaker demand, increased competition, and reduced government subsidies [12][12] - **Sector Risks**: Changes in NEV policies, potential overcapacity in the battery industry, and new market entrants could impact profitability [13][13] Analyst Ratings - **12-Month Rating**: Sell [6][6] - **Forecast Stock Return**: -61.1% with a market return assumption of 11.1% [9][9] Conclusion Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology is positioning itself for significant growth in both domestic and international markets through new model launches and strategic sales targets. However, the company faces considerable risks from market competition and regulatory changes, leading to a cautious outlook from analysts.

Summary of NIO Inc. Q2 2025 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: NIO Inc. - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing - **Date of Report**: September 2, 2025 Key Financial Results - **Operating Loss**: Rmb4,909 million for Q2 2025, a decrease of 24% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and 6% year-over-year (y/y) [2] - **GAAP Net Loss**: Rmb5,141 million, narrowing by 25% q/q and flat y/y [2] - **Non-GAAP Net Loss**: Rmb4,125 million, a decrease of 9% y/y and 34% q/q [2] - **Vehicle Margin**: 10.3%, up 0.1 percentage points (ppt) q/q but down 1.9 ppt y/y [3] - **Average Selling Price (ASP)**: Rmb224,000, down 5% q/q and 7-8% below market expectations [3] - **Research and Development (R&D) Expenses**: Rmb3 billion, down 5% q/q and 7% y/y [3] - **Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A) Expenses**: Rmb4 billion, down 10% q/q but up 6% y/y [3] - **Cash Position**: Gross cash of Rmb27 billion and net cash of Rmb12 billion as of June 30, 2025 [3] Outlook and Guidance - **Q3 2025 Delivery Guidance**: 87,000 to 91,000 units, implying 35,000 to 39,000 unit sales in September [4] - **Volume Growth**: Expected 41-47% y/y increase in volume for Q3 2025, but revenue growth is guided at only 17-23% y/y, indicating potential ASP declines [4] - **Order Intake**: Strong order intake reported for Onvo L90 and new Nio ES8, both launched at competitive prices [4] Valuation Metrics - **Current Trading Valuation**: 0.8x 2026E Price/Sales (P/S) compared to Li Auto's 0.9x and XPeng's 1.5x [5] - **Price Target**: Raised to US$6.20 from US$5.40 based on improved volume forecasts [5] - **Market Capitalization**: US$14.3 billion as of August 29, 2025 [6] Risks and Challenges - **Demand Risks**: Weaker-than-expected demand due to macroeconomic conditions [14] - **Supply Chain Risks**: Concentration of battery suppliers may weaken bargaining power and increase raw material costs [14] - **Competition**: Increased competition from local and traditional OEMs [14] - **Government Subsidies**: Potential decline in government subsidies for new energy vehicles (NEVs) [14] Additional Insights - **Sales Volume Performance**: Total sales volume for Q2 2025 was 72,056 units, with various models showing mixed performance [10] - **Analyst Ratings**: Current rating is Neutral with a price target reflecting a cautious outlook [28] - **Market Context**: The EV market in China is highly competitive, with significant pressure on margins and pricing strategies [12][14] This summary encapsulates the critical financial metrics, outlook, valuation, and risks associated with NIO Inc. as discussed in the Q2 2025 earnings call.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Equity Strategy** and the **anti-involution** policy initiated on July 1, 2025, which aims to stabilize pricing and return on investment across various sectors [2][5][16]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: Significant price increases were observed in several sectors from July 1 to July 25, 2025: - Lithium: +22% - Solar: +16% - Cement: +16% - Steel: +15% - Hog: +13% - Coal: +13% - Battery: +12% [2][6]. - **Policy Impact**: The anti-involution policy is expected to be an 18-month trade, with coordinated efforts from central and local governments, financial institutions, and businesses to restore normal pricing and ROI [2][5][16]. - **Valuation Re-rating**: The sectors that have seen the most significant re-rating since July 1 include: - Lithium: P/B re-rating of 22% - Solar: P/B re-rating of 16% - Cement: P/B re-rating of 16% - Autos lagged with a P/B increase of only 2% [13][18]. - **Sector Valuation**: As of July 25, 2025, sectors most discounted by P/B compared to their 10-year averages include Lithium, Solar, and Ecommerce, while Coal, Aluminum, and Autos are the least discounted [13][18]. Additional Important Content - **Government Measures**: Various ministries have implemented granular measures to support the anti-involution policy, including: - Output cuts in steel and hog industries - Pricing regulations in polysilicon and solar sectors - Capacity phase-outs in chemicals [5][17][18]. - **Profitability Concerns**: Loss-making sectors such as Lithium and Solar are under pressure, which may prompt more significant policy measures to address their financial challenges [18][21]. - **Market Capitalization Insights**: The report lists top companies by market capitalization in sectors affected by the anti-involution measures, indicating a focus on industries with poor profitability conditions [21][22]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The report suggests that while loss-making sectors may see a broad-based rally, industries with solid margins may experience internal divergence as stronger players gain market share [5][18]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the relevant industries in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US equity market, particularly highlighting speculative trading activity and its implications for market dynamics [2][3][20]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Speculative Trading Indicator**: The Speculative Trading Indicator has reached its highest level outside of the periods 1998-2001 and 2020-2021, indicating a significant increase in speculative trading activity [2][3][10]. 2. **Trading Volume Composition**: A notable share of recent trading volumes is concentrated in unprofitable stocks, penny stocks, and stocks with elevated EV/sales multiples, reflecting a high-risk trading environment [2][3][8]. 3. **Call Options Surge**: Call options have accounted for 61% of option volumes, the highest share since 2021, indicating increased risk appetite among investors [2][10]. 4. **IPO Performance**: First-day IPO returns have surged, with a median increase of 37% in June, marking the best month since early 2024 [33][38]. 5. **SPAC Activity**: SPAC issuance in 2Q 2025 reached $9 billion, the most active quarter since 1Q 2022, reflecting a resurgence in equity capital markets [33][39]. 6. **Short Squeeze Dynamics**: A significant short squeeze has occurred, with a basket of stocks with high short interest rallying over 60% since early April, reminiscent of market behaviors in 1999-2000 and 2020-2021 [20][24]. 7. **Market Positioning**: Despite the S&P 500 reaching record highs, average equity investor positioning remains neutral, and short interest for median S&P 500 stocks is close to the highest level since 2019, indicating potential risks in market breadth [30][36]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Investor Sentiment**: The Social Media Economic Sentiment Index has improved significantly, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards more positive outlooks [24][26]. 2. **Retail Trader Influence**: Stocks popular with retail traders have outperformed the broader market, with the GS Retail Favorites basket rallying by 51% since early April [24][30]. 3. **High-Multiple Stocks**: The median EV/sales multiple of the most actively traded stocks has surged to 8x, the highest level in decades outside of 2000 and 2021, indicating a trend towards high-multiple stocks in trading activity [8][14]. 4. **Market Breadth Concerns**: The narrow market breadth, characterized by a significant disparity between the performance of the S&P 500 and the median stock, signals potential risks to market momentum [30][32]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends observed in the US equity market as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Summary of Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology - **Industry**: Electric Vehicle (EV) Manufacturing - **Market Focus**: Mid- to high-end segments of China's NEV market, with a price range of Rmb150,000-300,000 [9] Key Takeaways from the Conference Call Price Competition and Sales Strategy - Management acknowledges the escalation of price competition as largely expected, though it occurred sooner than anticipated by some investors [1][2] - Leapmotor has implemented additional discounts of Rmb2,000-3,000 on models C16 and C11 to expedite inventory clearance, with no further price cuts expected [1][2] - The company aims for Q2 2025 sales of 130,000-140,000 units and a full-year target of 500,000-600,000 units, with a margin of 10-11% [2] Product Launches and Production Plans - Upcoming product launches include: - Sedan B10 in June/July 2025 - Hatchback B05 in October/November 2025 - Facelifts for models C10, C16, and C11 in May, June, and July 2025, respectively [2] - Leapmotor plans to localize production in Europe by mid-2026, focusing on A & B platform models for local manufacturing [1][3] International Market Expansion - The company targets an export volume of 50,000-60,000 units in 2025, with Europe expected to contribute two-thirds of this volume [3] - Key growth drivers for the overseas market include: - Launch of B10 featuring both BEV and EREV powertrains - Expansion of retail stores from 450 to 550, with European stores increasing from 350 to 450 [3] - Collaboration with Stellantis for corporate car programs in Europe [3] Financial Metrics and Valuation - Leapmotor's stock is currently trading at 1.1x 2025E P/S, compared to 1.3x for Li Auto, 0.6x for Nio, and 1.8x for XPeng [4] - The company has a market capitalization of HK$80.1 billion (approximately US$10.2 billion) [5] - Revenue projections show significant growth from Rmb12.4 billion in 2022 to Rmb47.2 billion in 2025E [7] Risks and Challenges - Upside risks include stronger-than-expected demand, moderating competition due to favorable policies, and faster execution in overseas markets [10] - Downside risks involve weaker-than-expected demand, increased competition, and potential reductions in government subsidies for NEVs [11] - The new energy vehicle sector faces risks such as changes in government policies, declining subsidies, new market entrants, and potential overcapacity in the battery industry [12] Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - The current 12-month rating for Leapmotor is "Sell" with a price target of HK$25.00, indicating a forecast stock return of -56.1% [5][8] - The stock price as of May 27, 2025, is HK$56.90, with a 52-week range of HK$65.80-19.54 [5] Conclusion Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology is navigating a competitive landscape in the EV market with strategic pricing, product launches, and international expansion plans. However, the company faces significant risks that could impact its growth trajectory and financial performance.