在当前快速变化的外汇市场中，提升决策的准确性和效率是参与者追求的核心目标。FXGT通过将先进的量化分析技术与市场洞察相结合，为个人及机构提 供了一套强大的决策支持体系。该体系旨在减少情绪干扰，提高策略的稳定性和执行效率，帮助用户更好地应对市场波动，捕捉潜在机会，实现更稳健的市 场参与。 FXGT深刻理解市场参与者对高效、客观决策工具的需求，致力于整合前沿的量化技术为用户赋能。其核心思路在于通过建立严谨的数理逻辑模型，对历史 及实时的市场数据进行深度挖掘和模式识别： 1. 信息处理与模式识别：系统能够高速处理新闻、经济指标、价格波动等结构化和非结构化数据，运用算法过滤噪音，识别可能被忽略的市场趋势和周期性 规律。 2. 策略回测与优化：在真实资金介入前，用户可以在安全的环境中，利用历史数据对预设的策略逻辑进行模拟验证。这有助于评估策略在不同市场环境下的 表现，发现潜在弱点，并进行迭代优化，从而提高策略的鲁棒性。 3. 风险管理的量化支撑：将风险管理原则量化，设置明确的、基于数据分析的参数（如动态调整的应对区间等）。这有助于用户更系统化地控制潜在波动带 来的影响，使操作过程更具纪律性。 外汇市场以规模庞大、流动性 ...

欧元兑美元汇率在2月11日逼近1.19关口，盘中触及1.1895高位，最终企稳于1.1880附近。这一走势反映出外汇市场短期内对美元信心的明显削弱，以及欧元 相对支撑力的增强。市场观点普遍将本轮欧元上行归因于美元走软与欧洲央行政策立场的共同作用，其背后涉及多方因素的博弈。 欧洲央行的政策表态亦对欧元形成支撑。尽管欧元区经济增长面临挑战，通胀水平仍处于高位，核心通胀指标出现反复。欧洲央行行长拉加德多次强调，在 通胀持续向目标靠拢之前，不会考虑降息。这一表态被市场解读为相对"鹰派"，与美联储可能转向宽松的预期形成对比。货币政策路径的分化预期，成为欧 元获得支撑的重要因素之一。 技术层面显示，欧元兑美元在突破1.18关口后延续升势，成交量同步放大，MACD与RSI等指标均显示短期动能偏多。1.19整数关口成为近期重要阻力位， 若突破则可能进一步上探1.20区域。但技术指标亦提示，在关键点位附近可能出现波动加剧与获利了结现象。 市场关注焦点转向即将公布的美国非农就业数据。该数据若表现强劲，可能暂时缓和美元跌势；反之若不及预期，则可能强化市场对美联储政策转向的猜 测，进一步压制美元。此类经济数据往往成为短期汇率波动的重 ...

Global Equity Markets - Global equity markets displayed a mixed performance over the weekend, with European and U.S. indices largely flat or slightly positive, while some Asian markets saw minor declines [2][3][9] - The German DAX posted a modest gain of 0.10%, closing at 24790, and the U.S. NASDAQ saw a slight increase of 0.12%, reaching 25048 [2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a marginal dip of 0.01%, ending at 50092, while the UK's FTSE 100 registered a minimal uptick of 0.01% to 10405 [3][9] - Asian markets showed a slight downturn, with the Hang Seng Index declining by 0.11% to 27012, indicating a period of consolidation across international bourses [3] Commodity Market - The commodities sector presented a stark contrast, with precious metals outperforming energy [4] - Gold prices rose by 0.29% to 4979, while Silver saw an even stronger rally, climbing 0.65% to 7842, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets [4][9] - Conversely, the energy market witnessed a notable decline in crude oil prices, with US Oil falling by 1.21%, settling at 6262, attributed to concerns over global demand and increased supply [5][9] Currency Movements - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro showed a slight upward trend against the U.S. Dollar, with the EURUSD pair increasing by 0.09%, trading at 11828 [6][9]

February 2, 2026 02:43 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global M Update FX Positioning Indicates a Reduction in Short DXY Positions Our FX options positioning scores are now published daily on Bloomberg. A table of the tickers can be found in the Appendix. Key Takeaways Exhibit 1: Source: DTCC, Bloomberg, Morgan Stanley Research; Note: Using options that were traded in the past three months and expire in the coming one month. Notionals are delta-adjusted. Data as of Friday, January 30. See FX Trading Signals From O ...

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange of China reported the trading volume of the foreign exchange market for December 2025, indicating significant activity in both the customer and interbank markets, as well as in spot and derivatives trading [1]. Group 1: December 2025 Trading Data - The total trading volume in China's foreign exchange market (excluding foreign currency pairs) reached 28.17 trillion RMB (approximately 3.99 trillion USD) in December 2025 [1]. - The customer market accounted for 4.78 trillion RMB (about 0.68 trillion USD), while the interbank market had a trading volume of 23.39 trillion RMB (around 3.31 trillion USD) [1]. - The spot market saw a cumulative trading volume of 10.44 trillion RMB (equivalent to 1.48 trillion USD), and the derivatives market totaled 17.73 trillion RMB (approximately 2.51 trillion USD) [1]. Group 2: Annual Trading Data for 2025 - For the entire year of 2025, the cumulative trading volume in China's foreign exchange market reached 304.57 trillion RMB (approximately 42.64 trillion USD) [1].

Core Insights - The total turnover of China's foreign exchange market reached 28.17 trillion RMB (approximately 3.99 trillion USD) in December 2025 [1] - The cumulative turnover for the entire year of 2025 was 304.57 trillion RMB (approximately 42.64 trillion USD) [1] Market Breakdown - The customer market turnover was 4.78 trillion RMB (approximately 0.68 trillion USD) [1] - The interbank market turnover was 23.39 trillion RMB (approximately 3.31 trillion USD) [1] - The spot market turnover was 10.44 trillion RMB (approximately 1.48 trillion USD) [1] - The derivatives market turnover was 17.73 trillion RMB (approximately 2.51 trillion USD) [1]

A friend called me some time ago to share her heartbreak over the declining value of the U.S. dollar. She is a forex broker who told me that the dollar's decline isn't inspiring confidence within the global trading community. I just checked the charts and noticed that the U.S. dollar index, which calculates the value of the USD relative to a basket of foreign currencies, has fallen to 96.16 on Jan. 27. It is the index's lowest point since mid-February 2022. Related: Dollar debasement fears send 'Bitcoin ...

Core Insights - The stability of a major global currency, specifically the Japanese yen, is under threat, which is impacting Bitcoin in the short term [1] - A potential coordinated currency intervention by the Federal Reserve has led to a significant appreciation of the yen, which surged 3.39% against the dollar [2] - The strengthening yen could disrupt the carry trade strategy that has benefited risk assets like Bitcoin, as investors may need to liquidate these assets to cover their positions [5][6] Currency Intervention and Market Impact - The New York Fed's procedural rate check has raised concerns about a coordinated intervention to strengthen the yen, which could involve selling U.S. dollars to buy yen [2][6] - A stronger yen threatens to reverse the carry trade, where investors borrow yen at low interest rates to invest in higher-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [5] - The recent turmoil in Japan, including a spike in government bond yields to 4%, has contributed to the yen's volatility and the subsequent impact on risk assets [3] Bitcoin's Performance and Market Dynamics - Bitcoin has shown minimal growth of only 0.14% year-to-date, contrasting with rising prices in gold and silver, indicating a lack of investor confidence amid changing macroeconomic conditions [4] - The current market dynamics suggest that Bitcoin's price is increasingly influenced by traditional financial flows, with leveraged positions facing heightened costs due to rising volatility premiums [6][7] - The expectation of intervention has led to increased selling pressure on Bitcoin as investors liquidate positions to cover yen loans [6][7]

Summary of the January FOMC Preview Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, specifically the expectations surrounding the January FOMC meeting and its implications for the U.S. economy and financial markets. Key Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the federal funds rate target range at **3.5-3.75%** during the January meeting, indicating a "dovish hold" [5][8][7] - The Fed has initiated bill purchases to keep reserve balances at "ample" levels, a policy expected to continue without additional changes in January [5][8] - The Committee is anticipated to upgrade its assessment of economic growth from "moderate" to "solid," reflecting improved consumer spending momentum [5][9] - The statement is likely to remove references to increased downside risks to employment, suggesting a more favorable outlook for the labor market [5][12] Communication Strategy - A key focus will be on how Chair Powell communicates the pause in rate cuts, with expectations leaning towards a "dovish hold" that emphasizes the potential for future rate reductions if inflation pressures ease [5][24][23] - There is a possibility of a "hawkish hold" if the committee signals a more durable pause, which would indicate the end of the rate-cutting cycle [5][24][25] Market Implications - Rates strategists recommend investors maintain a neutral position in U.S. Treasury duration and curve, while favoring long positions in 2-year UST SOFR swap spreads [5][5] - FX strategists note that the case for U.S. dollar (USD) weakness is less pronounced but remains, with a hawkish FOMC likely to weigh on the Australian dollar (AUD) more than other currencies [5][5] Economic Indicators - Recent stabilization in the labor market and solid economic activity data are seen as justifications for the Fed's decision to pause rate cuts [7][23] - The unemployment rate is projected to remain low, with a slight decline to **4.375%** noted, indicating limited slack in the labor market [23][23] - Inflation data has shown muted signals, with concerns shifting towards inflation persistence rather than further increases [11][11] Forward Guidance - The Fed is expected to maintain language regarding the "extent and timing of additional adjustments" to the target range, signaling an easing bias [5][13] - The anticipated changes in the FOMC statement reflect a shift towards a more optimistic economic outlook, while still acknowledging divisions within the committee regarding the appropriate policy path [5][27][29] Additional Considerations - The Fed's recent speeches indicate a narrowing of divisions among committee members, suggesting a more unified outlook on economic conditions [27][28] - Powell is likely to address various topics during the press conference, including productivity gains, AI's impact on the labor market, and risks to Fed independence [30][31] Conclusion - The upcoming FOMC meeting is poised to reflect a cautious yet optimistic stance on the U.S. economy, with the Fed maintaining a "dovish hold" while preparing for potential future rate cuts depending on inflation trends and labor market conditions [5][7][24]

Core Insights - The US dollar ended the previous week softer, influenced by inflation signals, rising Treasury yields, and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve and the White House [1] - Mixed inflation data, with Core CPI undershooting expectations and PPI meeting them, did not significantly alter the Federal Reserve's near-term policy stance [2] - The breakout in the 10-year yield above 4.2% suggests a potential increase in long-term US yields, yet the dollar struggled to gain traction due to resilient equity sentiment and reduced geopolitical fears [3] Currency Performance - The New Zealand dollar led the G10 currencies, supported by strong domestic manufacturing data, while the Canadian dollar benefited from optimism regarding renewed trade engagement with China [4] - European currencies, particularly the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Sterling, performed poorly due to political issues and declining growth momentum [4] - The Yen traded unevenly, influenced by speculation over US-Japan FX intervention and expectations of further Bank of Japan tightening, but overall demand for safe havens remained low [5] Currency Pairs Analysis - GBP/AUD has weakened significantly, with expectations for the trend to continue lower, potentially testing the key level of 1.98820 [6][8] - EUR/NZD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a baseline around 2.007; a break below this level could lead to a nearly 3% decline, testing the previous key level at 1.96225 [9][10] Market Outlook - Upcoming events, including the Davos summit and US-EU tensions over Greenland, are expected to create volatility in the Euro and Swiss Franc [11] - The acceleration of the equity earnings season, with results from major companies like Netflix and Intel, will shape risk sentiment and influence Dollar-sensitive carry trades [12] - The 10-year yield's movement above 4.2% will be closely monitored, as its trajectory could significantly impact the US dollar's performance against improving global risk appetite [13]