2025年1-7月，中国外汇市场累计成交179.15万亿元人民币（等值24.96万亿美元）。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京8月29日电国家外汇管理局公布2025年7月中国外汇市场交易概况数据，统计数据显示， 2025年7月，中国外汇市场（不含外币对市场，下同）总计成交28.28万亿元人民币（等值3.96万亿美 元）。其中，银行对客户市场成交4.06万亿元人民币（等值0.57万亿美元），银行间市场成交24.22万亿 元人民币（等值3.39万亿美元）；即期市场累计成交9.47万亿元人民币（等值1.33万亿美元），衍生品 市场累计成交18.81万亿元人民币（等值2.63万亿美元）。 ...

你是否曾感到外汇市场变幻莫测，像一团迷雾？其实，看似随机的波动背后，隐藏着奇妙的周期性规 律！理解这些规律，就能拨开迷雾，让交易之路不再迷茫。 一、外汇市场为何存在周期？ 外汇市场是全球经济、政治、情绪的 "晴雨表"。这些因素往往呈现周期性变化： 1. 洞察宏观大趋势 关注央行：紧盯美联储、欧央行等主要央行的政策声明、利率决议和经济预测。当前（2024 年）美联 储加息周期尾声转向降息预期的博弈，就是主导美元周期的关键。 跟踪经济数据：GDP、通胀（CPI）、就业数据等反映经济健康状况，预示政策走向。例如，持续高通 胀可能强化加息预期，利好本币。 把握政治脉搏：关注主要经济体的选举、重大政策变动、国际关系变化。如英国脱欧对英镑的长期影 响。 2. 技术分析捕捉节奏 经济周期驱动：经济增长、衰退、复苏的循环直接影响货币强弱。例如，经济强劲时，该国货币往往升 值（加息预期）；衰退时则可能贬值（降息预期）。 政策周期主导：央行的加息 / 降息周期是核心驱动力。美联储的货币政策周期往往引领美元数年的大趋 势。 季节性规律：某些月份或季度，受企业结算、假期等因素影响，特定货币可能出现规律性波动（如年末 日元常走强）。 ...

Accessible version Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities Amid growing concerns around stagflationary risks, we raise our EUR-USD forecast profile, as we are looking for additional USD softening. Since last month, we also have modest revisions in US rates and oil. World at a Glance Further Dollar Downside G10 FX: new higher EUR-USD forecasts We revise our baseline EUR-USD forecast, reflecting expectations of further USD weakness, by changing our end-2025 EUR-USD forecast to 1.20 (from 1.17), and end- 20 ...

J P M O R G A N Global FX Strategy 20 August 2025 Alt FX Positioning & Flows Taking stock of the USD flow narrative Global FX Strategy Patrick R Locke AC (1-212) 834-4254 patrick.r.locke@jpmchase.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC Octavia Popescu AC (44-20) 3493-5654 octavia.popescu@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc Quarterly net long-term asset inflows by foreign investors. USD bns Source: J.P. Morgan, US TIC, Haver Figure 2: ...but this failed to preclude USD depreciation in May/June LHS: 6m sum of net ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **foreign exchange (FX) market** and the **cross-border flows** as analyzed by BofA Global Research. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Consolidation of FX Flows**: The FX flows in Q3 are characterized by consolidation, particularly after significant positioning adjustments in the first half of the year. Investors have favored USD, CHF, and emerging market (EM) currencies against JPY, GBP, and CAD [1][7][8]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: Among BofA investors, USD short positions are relatively light compared to historical levels, indicating a cautious approach towards USD selling [4][5]. 3. **Hedge Fund Activity**: Hedge Funds have shown a notable demand for Brazilian Real (BRL) and have been net sellers of EURGBP, while also supporting GBP recently [7][8][13]. 4. **G10 Currency Trends**: GBP has benefitted the least from USD supply year-to-date, with Hedge Funds primarily supporting it, joined by Asset Managers in the last week [9][10]. 5. **Emerging Market (EM) Focus**: Latin American currencies have seen strong demand in Q3, with BRL demand highlighted. In Asia, there was notable demand for Indonesian Rupiah (IDR), while in EMEA, Hungarian Forint (HUF) demand was significant amid geopolitical developments [13][20]. 6. **FX Options and Futures**: The report includes a snapshot of FX options and futures flows, indicating varied positioning across different currencies, with USD options showing a positive z-score recently [22]. Additional Important Details 1. **Aggregate Positioning Data**: The report provides detailed aggregate positioning data for various currencies, indicating shifts in investor sentiment and positioning over time [24][32]. 2. **Risk Considerations**: The report emphasizes that trading ideas and investment strategies discussed may involve significant risks and are not suitable for all investors, highlighting the need for experience and financial resources to absorb potential losses [6]. 3. **Future Reports**: The next report on Liquid Cross Border Flows is scheduled for release on September 1st, indicating ongoing monitoring of FX flows and positioning [6]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the FX market and investor behavior.

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Core Viewpoint - Currency Exchange International, Corp. ("CXI") has announced an amendment to its normal course issuer bid (NCIB), increasing the maximum number of common shares that may be repurchased from 316,646 to 377,000, which represents 10% of the public float as of the current date [1][5]. Group 1: Share Buyback Program - The amendment to the NCIB is effective from August 25, 2025, and allows for the repurchase of an additional 60,354 shares [1]. - As of August 18, 2025, CXI has repurchased 221,400 common shares at a weighted-average price of C$20.84 since the program began on December 2, 2024 [2]. - The company will purchase shares on the open market through the TSX and alternative Canadian trading platforms, with all repurchased shares being cancelled [3]. Group 2: Purchase Guidelines - Under TSX policies, CXI can repurchase a maximum of 1,000 shares in a single trading day and is allowed to make a block purchase once per week [4]. - The purchases will be funded through available cash, and the actual number and timing of purchases will be determined by CXI [4]. Group 3: Rationale for Buyback - The Board of Directors believes that the market price of the common shares may not fully reflect their long-term value, making the buyback an attractive use of available funds [5]. - The company has amended its automatic share purchase plan (ASPP) to allow for the purchase of up to 377,000 shares under the ASPP, which will be included in the NCIB calculations [6]. Group 4: Company Overview - Currency Exchange International provides foreign exchange technology and processing services for banks, credit unions, businesses, and consumers, with primary products including currency exchange, wire transfer payments, and foreign cheque clearing [7].

Group 1 - The essence of finance is to facilitate the flow of money, making it more valuable as it moves faster, further, and more securely [1] - The banking business involves borrowing today's money for tomorrow's needs, where banks earn interest from loans after paying interest on deposits [3] - Capital markets operate similarly by allowing individuals to invest idle money in companies or governments, generating returns through various financial instruments [3] Group 2 - Financial institutions generate profits through three main methods: earning spreads (buy low, sell high), charging service fees, and capturing risk premiums [5] - Investors should be cautious and consider risks before focusing solely on returns, as high-return promises often indicate potential pitfalls [7] - Understanding financial products and strategies, such as dollar-cost averaging, can empower individuals to make informed investment decisions over time [7] Group 3 - Financial concepts are prevalent in everyday life, from payment apps to shared services, highlighting the importance of understanding financial mechanisms [9] - The goal of financial literacy is not to become a Wall Street expert but to navigate the financial landscape effectively and avoid being overwhelmed by market fluctuations [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that market movements are driven by investor interpretation and expectations rather than just news events [1][2] - The foreign exchange and gold markets face three main challenges: information overload, missing signals behind data, and emotional traps leading to poor trading decisions [2] - The UNFX analysis team focuses on three key areas: policy interpretation, technical validation, and tracking capital flows to identify investment opportunities [2] Group 2 - A recent case study highlighted that when the Eurozone CPI unexpectedly declined, the team did not simply view it as negative for the Euro; instead, they conducted a comprehensive analysis leading to a bullish EUR/USD strategy [2] - The essence of investment profitability lies in the ability to penetrate superficial information and capture the underlying truths of the market [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the foreign exchange (FX) market, focusing on positioning and sentiment regarding various currencies, particularly the US Dollar Index (DXY), Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and others. Core Insights and Arguments - **DXY Positioning**: Investors have modestly reduced their short positions in the DXY, indicating a cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's decisions [8][22]. - **Currency Positioning Changes**: - Investors have reduced short NZD positions and increased long EUR positions [8][13]. - There is an increase in short positions for USD (DXY) and NOK against EUR [8][13]. - In the futures market, short USD positions have been trimmed, while long GBP and NZD positions have also been reduced [8][13]. - **Tactical Investor Sentiment**: Current options data suggest that tactical investors are predominantly long on EUR and AUD, while being short on NOK and SEK against EUR [15][18]. - **Futures Market Positioning**: The futures market shows long positions in EUR and JPY, with short positions in CHF and AUD [15][18]. - **Speculative Positioning**: Speculative USD (DXY) futures positioning has increased to -4.2% of open interest, indicating a shift in sentiment from -8.9% the previous week [22]. Additional Important Information - **Sentiment Index**: The Daily Sentiment Index for NZD showed the largest improvement, while sentiment for USD and JPY deteriorated the most among G10 currencies [22]. - **Options Data**: The options pricing data indicates a shift in investor behavior, with a notable increase in long positions for EUR and AUD, reflecting a strategic pivot in response to market conditions [8][15]. - **Analyst Insights**: Analysts from Morgan Stanley have provided insights into the FX market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of monitoring positioning and sentiment as indicators of future market movements [6][31]. Conclusion - The FX market is currently experiencing shifts in positioning, particularly with a reduction in short USD positions and an increase in long EUR positions. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding these changes as they may signal broader market trends and potential investment opportunities.