December 12, 2025 03:08 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy | Global EUR/USD may re-test its previous highs should US labor market data disappoint and President Lagarde fail to explicitly push back on hike expectations from the ECB. JPY View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish We closely monitor upcoming US labor market data next week. Any further weakness in US labor market data can open the door for USD/JPY to go 150.00, as we expect the BoJ to express further normalization at the upcoming December MPM. Our Latest Views Morgan S ...

By Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasinghe and Alun John LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Trading in the Hungarian forint, long a niche emerging market currency, has more than doubled since U.S. President Donald Trump took office in January, with trader interest only growing since his sweeping "Liberation Day" import tariffs announcement. These increased volumes are no blip either, say traders, strategists and hedge funds navigating the almost $10-trillion-a-day global FX ​markets. The forint has strengthened rough ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) shows a positive trend against the US dollar (USD) despite weak GDP growth data for Q3 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics [1] Economic Data Summary - Q3 GDP growth rate was 0.4%, down from 0.6% in Q2; annual GDP growth slowed from 1.8% to 2.1%, both below market expectations, leading to a brief sell-off of the AUD during Asian trading hours [1] - October's consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% in the previous month; adjusted average CPI increased from 3.2% to 3.3%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2%-3% [2] Central Bank and Inflation Insights - RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated that the central bank is closely evaluating recent inflation data to assess the sustainability of price pressures, which could impact future monetary policy [2] - The statement reduced market expectations for further policy easing in the short term, providing support for the AUD [2] External Environment Impact - China's services PMI slightly decreased from 52.6 in October to 52.1 in November but remained above the expected 52.0, showing limited reaction from the AUD [3] - The USD index remains at a relatively low level, influenced by market expectations of a dovish policy from the Federal Reserve, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [3][4] Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD recently broke through a descending trendline resistance since September and is above the 100-day simple moving average, indicating positive momentum without entering overbought territory [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6535-0.6530; a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards 0.6600 and potentially challenge the yearly high around 0.6700 [7] - Important support is at the psychological level of 0.6500; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards the 200-day moving average around 0.6465 and the November low of 0.6420 [7]

Core Insights - U.S. equities experienced a strong performance last week, marking one of the most significant November turnarounds on record despite a shorter trading week [1] - The U.S. dollar struggled to maintain a key psychological level of 100 on the index, primarily due to the Federal Reserve signaling a potential rate cut in December [2] - Macro factors, rather than micro factors, influenced the market mood, with data easing hard-landing fears and supporting the case for easier policy [3] Market Conditions - Liquidity conditions were thin, and a significant technical incident occurred when several key futures and FX venues went offline due to a cooling failure at a CME Group data center [4][5] - The NZD/JPY pair broke out of a five-month range, closing above a key level of 89, indicating bullish momentum [6][8] - The EUR/AUD pair saw the Australian dollar recover due to rising commodity prices, with potential bearish signals if it breaks support around 1.76 [9][10] Upcoming Events - The upcoming week is critical for assessing the December rate cut narrative, with potential catalysts including high-profile U.S. data and political developments [11] - Key domestic focus will be on ISM manufacturing and services data, which could influence the Fed's reaction function [12] - Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report is expected to show a modest rebound, with implications for the rate-cut timeline and market sentiment [13]

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibited a cautious stance on the first trading day of December, with major asset prices fluctuating around economic data and central bank policy expectations [1] - U.S. stock index futures fell between 0.5% to 1% during European morning trading, reflecting investor hesitance regarding economic outlook [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November, released by the Institute for Supply Management, is a key data point influencing U.S. stock market movements, as investors look to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector [1] - China's manufacturing PMI for November dropped to 49.9, indicating contraction, down from 50.6 in October and below the market expectation of 50.5, following a nearly 1.5% increase the previous week [1] Currency Movements - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar opened lower on Monday, trading in a negative range below 0.6550, influenced by the disappointing Chinese PMI data [1] - The U.S. dollar index, a core variable for cross-market interactions, fell over 0.7% last week, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December continuing to rise [3] - The euro/dollar pair consolidated last week's gains, trading slightly below 1.1600, while the pound/dollar pair saw a slight decline to around 1.3200 after a 1% increase last week [4] Precious Metals - Gold emerged as one of the few strong assets in the current market, reaching a high of over $4250 during Asian trading, although it experienced a pullback during European morning trading, remaining above $4200 [4] - The performance of gold is directly related to the weakening dollar and market expectations for accommodative policies, highlighting its safe-haven and value-preserving attributes [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global macroeconomic outlook for 2026, focusing on the impact of AI, fiscal policies, and the K-shaped recovery in various economies [1][2][16][40]. Core Themes and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Outlook**: - The global economy is expected to grow at 3.3% in 2026, with inflation stabilizing around 2.4% [39][42]. - The US and China are projected to drive strong global growth, with the US benefiting from AI-related investments and fiscal stimulus [42][43]. 2. **K-shaped Recovery**: - The recovery is characterized by uneven growth across sectors and income groups, leading to increased income inequality [16][40][41]. - The divergence in consumer sentiment and equity returns highlights the K-shaped nature of the recovery [19]. 3. **Impact of AI**: - AI is anticipated to boost productivity and influence growth and inflation dynamics, but it may also lead to income redistribution from labor to capital [17][18][40]. - Developed markets like the US, Japan, and Korea are well-positioned to benefit from AI advancements [17]. 4. **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Dynamics**: - Fiscal dominance is becoming a significant factor in market pricing, particularly in the US and Japan, raising concerns about the sustainability of public finances [22][23]. - The call suggests that central banks may face challenges in maintaining independence due to fiscal pressures [22][23]. 5. **Currency and FX Market Outlook**: - The US dollar is expected to remain dominant, but there is a gradual trend towards FX reserve diversification [24]. - The call highlights tactical bullish trades on the USD against JPY and AUD, while remaining bearish beyond Q1 2026 [10][76]. Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Volatility and Market Risks**: - Current market conditions show low volatility and high valuations, making markets vulnerable to shocks [9][12][59]. - The need for tail risk hedges is emphasized, particularly for portfolios that are long carry [9][10]. 2. **Emerging Markets (EM) Outlook**: - EM local markets are expected to deliver double-digit USD returns, particularly in currencies like BRL, COP, and ZAR [11][13]. - However, caution is advised regarding sovereign external debt, with a forecast of 4% total return and wider spreads [13]. 3. **Geopolitical Considerations**: - The US is showing renewed interest in Latin America and other emerging markets for critical inputs, influenced by national security considerations [38]. - The geopolitical landscape is expected to impact supply chains and investment strategies [38]. 4. **Inflation Dynamics**: - Service inflation is expected to remain sticky across most countries, while China is likely to continue exporting disinflation in goods [47][48]. - The call anticipates different central bank reactions to inflation, with most expected to end their easing cycles in 2026 [49][50]. 5. **Investment Strategies**: - Specific investment strategies include long positions in US rates, EM local bonds, and tactical trades in FX markets [20][21][70][75]. - The call suggests a focus on carry trades and hedging against potential market disruptions [61][63]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, investment strategies, and potential risks for 2026.

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Global Markets Strategy November 24th, 2025 Global Macro Outlook and Strategy Global Rates, Commodities, Currencies and Emerging Markets Luis Oganes AC (44-20) 7742-1420 luis.oganes@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities plc See the end pages of this presentation for analyst certification and important disclosures. {[{B01v-d4joWPbpSPNcwGh7enRDcx_XYd872O4Uor3Vcsp4l33-sDPjK3f0Kx6YvaA0ymmNbAAwvGb8H0v}]} Overall summary US Rates Recent Fed speak has turned more cautious on further easing, and following the Septemb ...

Core Viewpoint - Currency Exchange International, Corp. has announced the renewal of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) and Automatic Securities Purchase Plan (ASPP) to repurchase up to 359,617 common shares, representing 10% of its public float as of November 18, 2025 [1][2][5] Group 1: Share Buyback Program - The Toronto Stock Exchange has accepted the company's notice to renew its NCIB and ASPP, allowing for the repurchase of shares starting December 2, 2025, until December 1, 2026, or until the maximum number of shares is repurchased [1][2] - The company had 6,134,120 common shares issued and outstanding as of November 18, 2025, and will repurchase shares on the open market at prevailing market rates [2][3] - The average daily trading volume for the common shares on the TSX was 2,418, allowing the company to repurchase a maximum of 1,000 shares per trading day under the NCIB [4] Group 2: Rationale for Share Repurchase - The Group CEO and Board of Directors believe that the market price of the company's shares may not reflect its underlying value, and repurchasing shares can enhance shareholder value during periods of volatility [5] - The company previously conducted a normal course issuer bid from December 2, 2024, to December 1, 2025, repurchasing 323,500 common shares at an average price of C$21.30 [6] Group 3: Automatic Securities Purchase Plan - The company has established an ASPP with its broker to facilitate automatic purchases of shares under the NCIB, with purchases determined by the broker based on parameters set by the company [7] - The ASPP has been pre-cleared by the TSX and will be effective from December 2, 2025, with all repurchases under the ASPP counted towards the NCIB total [7] Group 4: Company Overview - Currency Exchange International, Corp. provides foreign exchange technology and processing services for banks, credit unions, businesses, and consumers, with primary products including currency exchange, wire transfer payments, and foreign cheque clearing [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Currency Exchange International, Corp. has received approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange to renew its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) and Automatic Securities Purchase Plan (ASPP) to repurchase up to 359,617 common shares, representing 10% of the public float as of November 18, 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: NCIB Details - The NCIB will allow the company to repurchase shares starting from December 2, 2025, until December 1, 2026, or earlier if the maximum number of shares is repurchased [2]. - The company has 6,134,120 common shares outstanding as of November 18, 2025, and will purchase shares on the open market at prevailing market rates [2][3]. - The average daily trading volume for the common shares on the TSX was 3,908, allowing a maximum repurchase of 1,000 shares per trading day under TSX policies [4]. Group 2: Rationale for Share Repurchase - The Group CEO and Board of Directors believe that the market price may not reflect the underlying value of the company, and repurchasing shares can enhance shareholder value during periods of volatility [5]. - The previous NCIB allowed the company to repurchase 323,500 shares at an average price of C$21.30, indicating a proactive approach to managing share value [6]. Group 3: ASPP Implementation - The company has established an ASPP with its broker for automatic share purchases under the NCIB, effective December 2, 2025 [7]. - All repurchases made under the ASPP will count towards the total shares purchased under the NCIB [7]. Group 4: Company Overview - Currency Exchange International, Corp. provides foreign exchange technology and processing services for banks, credit unions, businesses, and consumers, with a focus on foreign currency exchange, wire transfers, and cheque clearing [8].