Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Shanghai zinc to undergo an oscillatory adjustment, and suggests paying attention to the support of MA60. The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore procurement intensifies, and the domestic and foreign processing fees remain low. However, the sulfuric acid price strengthens, expanding the profits of domestic smelters, and the enthusiasm of smelters to resume work after the festival is expected to increase. The export window has closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is still in the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, while the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors are slowly recovering, lacking obvious increments. The automotive and other fields have some bright spots due to policy support. The downstream market mainly makes on - demand purchases at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have declined, downstream purchases are still light, the domestic social inventory continues to increase, the LME zinc inventory decreases slightly, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position volume decreases and the price adjusts, with both long and short sides trading cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 24,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the 04 - 05 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,315.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 26.5 US dollars. The total position of Shanghai zinc is 176,142 lots, an increase of 1,336 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4,277 lots, an increase of 1,883 lots. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged. The SHFE inventory is 134,921 tons, an increase of 8,869 tons; the LME inventory is 98,900 tons, a decrease of 50 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 24,310 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 24,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 41.31 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.86 US dollars. The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global zinc ore production (monthly value) is 1.0627 million tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, an increase of 21,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, a decrease of 53,900 tons. The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 7,700 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, a decrease of 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, a decrease of 15,548.89 tons. The social zinc inventory is 218,400 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons. The production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 58,769.96 million square meters, an increase of 5,313.26 million square meters; the housing completion area is 60,348.13 million square meters, an increase of 20,894.2 million square meters. The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, a decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, an increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 27.5%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 27.5%, a decrease of 0.27 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 23.41%, a decrease of 2.89 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 20.33%, a decrease of 0.28 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In February, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively. In February, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 694,000 and 765,000 vehicles respectively, with a year - on - year decrease of 21.8% and 14.2% respectively, and new - energy vehicle sales accounted for 42.4% of total new vehicle sales. The China Development Forum 2026 Annual Meeting will be held in Beijing from March 22nd to 23rd, with the theme of "China in the 15th Five - Year Plan: High - quality Development and Co - creating New Opportunities". The US February CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. G7 leaders held a phone call to discuss the Middle East situation and its economic impact. The energy price surge caused by the Iran war is reshaping Europe [3].

Group 1 - The core focus of the market is on the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, with expectations that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 2.25%. The key factor is not the rate adjustment itself, but the guidance in the decision statement [1] - If the central bank reiterates that the current interest rate level is appropriate and that inflation targets still require time to validate, a dovish signal will further delay rate hike expectations, weakening the CAD's interest rate advantage and pushing USD/CAD towards the 1.3600 range [1] - Conversely, if the statement highlights concerns over global demand slowdown and escalating trade frictions, it may suppress market expectations for a rapid appreciation of the CAD, thus limiting the downward space for the exchange rate [1] Group 2 - The CAD's performance is closely tied to oil prices, with WTI crude stabilizing around $61.10, providing temporary support for the CAD [2] - The current supply-side tightening and regional supply disruptions are likely to push oil price volatility higher, benefiting Canada as an energy-exporting nation by improving trade conditions and boosting corporate profits and fiscal revenues [2] - Technically, USD/CAD remains in a delicate balance, with the downtrend from the previous high of 1.3927 unbroken. The price has returned below 1.3700 and is testing lower levels, indicating persistent selling pressure above [2]

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibited a cautious stance on the first trading day of December, with major asset prices fluctuating around economic data and central bank policy expectations [1] - U.S. stock index futures fell between 0.5% to 1% during European morning trading, reflecting investor hesitance regarding economic outlook [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for November, released by the Institute for Supply Management, is a key data point influencing U.S. stock market movements, as investors look to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector [1] - China's manufacturing PMI for November dropped to 49.9, indicating contraction, down from 50.6 in October and below the market expectation of 50.5, following a nearly 1.5% increase the previous week [1] Currency Movements - The Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar opened lower on Monday, trading in a negative range below 0.6550, influenced by the disappointing Chinese PMI data [1] - The U.S. dollar index, a core variable for cross-market interactions, fell over 0.7% last week, driven by dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December continuing to rise [3] - The euro/dollar pair consolidated last week's gains, trading slightly below 1.1600, while the pound/dollar pair saw a slight decline to around 1.3200 after a 1% increase last week [4] Precious Metals - Gold emerged as one of the few strong assets in the current market, reaching a high of over $4250 during Asian trading, although it experienced a pullback during European morning trading, remaining above $4200 [4] - The performance of gold is directly related to the weakening dollar and market expectations for accommodative policies, highlighting its safe-haven and value-preserving attributes [4]