Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The commodity futures market saw most prices rise on the 21st, with the three major oilseed prices increasing by over 2%, and soybean oil leading with a nearly 3.2% rise [1][2] - The overall net inflow of funds in the commodity futures market was 387 million, with 932 million flowing into the agricultural products sector and 686 million flowing out of the black chain index [1] Group 2: Oilseed Market Dynamics - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached a record high of 2.18 million tons for the week ending on the 18th, driven by demand for holiday stockpiling [2] - Despite high operating rates this week, a decline in operating rates is expected next week, with increased soybean import costs and inflation expectations supporting short-term strength in oilseed prices [2] Group 3: Lead and Other Metals Performance - Lead futures rose by 1.99%, following a reduction in positions, while tin also increased by 1.87%, leading the non-ferrous metals sector [2] - Analysts suggest that lead prices may experience range-bound fluctuations due to weakening support from battery demand, although the cost of recycled lead is showing some support [2][4] Group 4: Iron Ore and Nickel Market Trends - Iron ore prices opened with a nearly 1% increase but closed down by nearly 3%, reflecting a decline of close to 100 yuan/ton from early September highs [3] - The overall supply-demand balance for iron ore remains relatively stable, but there is potential for marginal easing in fundamentals, leading to price adjustment pressures [3] Group 5: Broader Market Sentiment - Nickel, glass, and manganese silicon all fell by over 1.9%, with urea and rebar also declining by more than 1.5% [4] - Market sentiment is influenced by poor stock market performance, raising concerns about liquidity turning points, which could resonate with industrial commodities [4]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report views sugar bullishly but advises against chasing the upward trend [3][4]. 2. Core View - Sugar should be viewed bullishly, but it's not advisable to chase the upward trend. There is an expectation of a bumper harvest in China, while there is a temporary supply tightness in Brazil. The 01 contract may experience a tail - end rally, and it can be operated strongly when it pulls back to the previous low [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Domestic Sugar Price and Basis - In Guangxi, the price in Nanning Warehouse is 6050 yuan/ton with no change, and the basis with SR09 is 367 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it's 5840 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 257 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; in Dali, it's 5725 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, and the basis is 182 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. In Shandong, the price in Rizhao is 6090 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan, and the basis is 307 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan [4]. - SR09 is at 5686 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; SR01 is at 5628 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; SR09 - 01 is 55 yuan, down 4 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Prices - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is 7.207, up 0.0105; the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB is 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB is 0.084, down 0.0004 [4]. - The ICE raw sugar主力 is at 16.09 with no change; the London white sugar主力 is at 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil主力 is at 67.68 with no change [4].

Group 1 - WTI September crude oil futures closed down by $0.74, a decline of nearly 1.06%, settling at $69.26 per barrel, moving away from the highest closing price since June 20 [1] - In July, WTI crude oil prices increased by over 8.47% [1] - NYMEX September natural gas futures settled at $3.1060 per million British thermal units [1] Group 2 - NYMEX August gasoline futures closed at $2.2156 per gallon, while NYMEX August heating oil futures settled at $2.3995 per gallon [1] - In July, ICE UK natural gas futures rose by 7.19%, showing an overall N-shaped trend [1] - TTF benchmark Dutch natural gas futures increased by 2.37%, and ICE EU carbon emission trading allowances (futures prices) rose by 6.04% [1]

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.82%, closing at 29.4785 points [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 1.37%, settling at $4.1325 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures remained relatively stable, priced at $5.3825 per bushel [1] Group 2 - CBOT soybean futures dropped by 0.93%, ending at $10.1150 per bushel [1] - Soymeal futures decreased by 0.78%, while soybean oil futures increased by 0.07% [1]

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Core Insights - Copper futures prices have declined following Trump's announcement of a 50% tariff on copper products, which may lead to a widening price gap between COMEX and LME to $3,000 per ton [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The announcement of tariffs is expected to significantly affect copper prices, leading to potential volatility in the market [1] - The widening price gap between COMEX and LME could create trading opportunities for investors [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of copper prices remains uncertain, influenced by geopolitical factors and trade policies [1]

Core Insights - WTI crude oil futures for August settled at $67.93 per barrel [1] - NYMEX natural gas futures for August closed at $3.4120 per million British thermal units [1] - NYMEX gasoline futures for August ended at $2.1522 per gallon, while heating oil futures for August settled at $2.4211 per gallon [1]

Group 1 - WTI August crude oil futures closed at $68.51 per barrel [1] - NYMEX July natural gas futures closed at $3.6980 per million British thermal units [1] - NYMEX July gasoline futures closed at $2.2182 per gallon [1] - NYMEX July heating oil futures closed at $2.3631 per gallon [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bloomberg Grain Index increased by 1.24% to 31.3244 points, indicating a positive trend in grain prices as of June 17, with significant gains observed in various futures markets [1] Group 1: Grain Market Performance - CBOT corn futures rose by 0.86%, reaching $4.3875 per bushel, reflecting a stable demand in the corn market [1] - CBOT wheat futures experienced a notable increase of 2.44%, priced at $5.6575 per bushel, suggesting strong market conditions for wheat [1] - CBOT soybean futures increased by 0.71%, now at $10.68 per bushel, while soybean meal futures rose by 0.84%. However, soybean oil futures declined by 0.40% after a significant rise of 8.77% on the previous day, indicating volatility in the soybean complex [1]

Group 1: Coal Market Insights - The coal market is currently experiencing a seasonal demand window, with daily consumption at 4.85 million tons as of June 5, showing a week-on-week increase of 7.5% [1] - The inventory available for use is at 24.4 days, down by 1.6 days week-on-week, indicating potential supply constraints [1] - The price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is at 609 RMB/ton, a slight decrease of 0.3% [1] - There is a concern about the possibility of a weak peak season due to increased rainfall in the Yangtze River basin, which could enhance hydropower output [1][12] Group 2: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The upcoming U.S.-China economic consultation mechanism meeting from June 8 to 13 is crucial for assessing future trade dynamics, particularly regarding the 10% baseline tariff and semiconductor export restrictions [2][8] - The sensitivity of the commodity market to these discussions is high, especially for shipping and crude oil sectors [2][8] - The potential for a thaw in U.S.-China relations could lead to a rebound in previously declining commodities such as energy and chemicals [8] Group 3: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, slightly above the expected 130,000, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2% [9][10] - Wage growth is at 3.9% year-on-year, indicating sustained consumer strength, but the overall economic outlook remains cautious due to downward revisions of previous employment data [9][10] - The interplay between rising import prices and wage growth may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy flexibility, impacting both equity and commodity markets [10][11] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector is witnessing independent pricing dynamics, with pork prices exceeding 14 RMB/kg and Brazilian soybean prices rebounding [3][16] - The soybean market is currently in a critical growth season, with no immediate weather threats in the U.S. Midwest, suggesting limited upward pressure on prices [16] - The recent performance of soybean meal is driven by rising CNF prices from Brazil, supported by speculative buying from domestic oil mills [16] Group 5: Precious Metals - Silver is positioned for potential gains due to its dual industrial and monetary attributes, with supply constraints and demand from sectors like photovoltaics and electronics [3] - The gold-silver ratio may continue to improve, but fiscal risks remain unresolved, keeping gold as a primary safe haven [3]