Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of Laopu Gold, which has seen its stock price increase by over 300% this year, making it a benchmark case for public funds investing in the gold consumption sector [1][2] - As of July 3, Laopu Gold's stock price reached 969 HKD per share, with a total market capitalization of 167.32 billion HKD, reflecting the capital market's preference for high-end gold craftsmanship [1] - The driving forces behind Laopu Gold's price surge are attributed to the dual resonance of global inflation expectations and the trend of domestic consumption, particularly the growing consumer interest in traditional gold jewelry [1][3] Group 2 - Specific holdings show that three funds, including GF Value Core Mixed A and Xinao Enjoy Life Mixed A, have over 9.6% of their net asset value in Laopu Gold, nearing the 10% "full position" limit [2] - The strong performance of Laopu Gold has translated into significant returns for the funds, with an average net asset value growth rate of 19.17% for the 39 funds holding the stock [2] - The article suggests that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a structural window of opportunity, particularly in the context of rising risk appetite, with a focus on AI and consumer sectors [2][3] Group 3 - Looking ahead, the article identifies two main lines for investment in Hong Kong consumer stocks: first, leading companies in segments with pricing power, such as gold jewelry; second, domestic brands benefiting from policy stimulus, which are expected to see valuation premiums rise as performance materializes [3]

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline with reduced trading volume, averaging approximately 10,939 billion yuan in daily transactions, as it awaits new breakthrough opportunities [1] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with small-cap stocks leading the overall market performance [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic fundamentals may have passed the fastest decline phase, but PPI remains under pressure; attention is on credit data for the second half of the year [2] - New home transactions have seen a rebound, while automotive consumption has weakened; manufacturing activity remains low, and commodity price pressures persist [2] - CPI showed a month-on-month decrease in May, with a year-on-year decline for four consecutive months; core CPI's year-on-year growth has expanded, primarily due to energy and food prices [2] Market Sentiment - The overall negative impact of fundamentals on the market is still present, but the influence is being priced in; there is a need for early policy intervention to support domestic demand and alleviate supply pressures [3] - Internationally, U.S. soft data has improved, with consumer and business confidence rising, while hard data showed May CPI below expectations [3] Market Outlook - Current risk appetite is adjusting, with fundamental pressures and strong policy expectations; the market is expected to remain in a volatile state [4] - The market's pricing logic is gradually shifting from fundamentals to policy and liquidity expectations, with potential for recovery if favorable policies are introduced [4] Investment Strategy - Short-term market volatility is anticipated, with a focus on avoiding risks from event shocks; a barbell strategy is recommended [5] - Key sectors to watch include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend assets, which are expected to perform well under current conditions [5]

与此同时，欧盟计划通过新一轮对俄制裁方案，将俄罗斯石油价格上限从60美元/桶下调至45美元/桶， 并禁止使用"北溪"管道等能源基础设施。这些措施可能进一步推高能源价格，间接影响全球通胀预期， 为黄金提供一定支撑。然而，若贸易谈判缓和关税争端，市场对通胀的担忧可能减弱，黄金的上涨动能 也将受到限制。综合来看，当前黄金市场正处于多重因素的交织影响之下。地缘政治紧张局势和全球经 济放缓为金价提供了坚实的底部支撑，但中美贸易谈判的乐观预期和美元走强则限制了其上行空间。短 期内，金价可能在3250至3350美元/盎司区间内震荡，等待CPI数据和贸易谈判的进一步明朗。长期来 看，若全球经济不确定性持续加剧，黄金作为避险资产的吸引力将进一步凸显，但贸易局势的缓和可能 使其短期承压。 黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，往往在全球局势动荡时最为耀眼。俄乌冲突的持续升级无疑为金价提供了 强有力的支撑。目前，期货市场预计美联储将在9月降息，目前概率约为60%，但整体降息幅度有限。 美元指数近期回升至99.087，受到贸易谈判乐观情绪的支撑，而美元走强通常对以美元计价的黄金形成 压制。此外，美国国债收益率保持稳定，10年期国债收益率报4.4 ...