Macro Insights - The Middle East conflict has raised global inflation expectations, with March PMI indicators for the US, Europe, and Japan showing weakness due to energy supply shocks and high oil prices impacting the real economy [2][3] - The US stock indices fell throughout the month, while oil prices surged significantly, leading to increased volatility in equity and commodity markets [2] - Domestic manufacturing capacity adjustments are nearing completion, and raw material prices have risen sharply due to oil supply shocks, potentially squeezing profits for mid- and downstream enterprises [3] Company-Specific Insights - Guizhou Moutai (600519 CH) is undergoing a critical year of market-oriented governance transformation, with short-term price stability for its flagship product and long-term growth potential [7] - China Duty Free Group (601888 CH) reported a revenue of 53.694 billion yuan, down 4.92% year-on-year, but showed signs of recovery in Q4 with a revenue increase of 2.81% [8] - RuiPu Bio (300119 CH) achieved a revenue of 3.398 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 10.7% year-on-year growth, with a focus on the development of its microbial protein project [10] - MingNing (1768 HK) reported a revenue increase of 68.2% to 66.17 billion yuan, driven by higher store openings and improved profitability [11] - Torch Electronics (603678 CH) achieved a revenue of 4.121 billion yuan, up 47.09% year-on-year, with a focus on diversifying its business to enhance competitiveness [13] - China Overseas Development (688 HK) reported a revenue of 168.1 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year, but maintains a strong competitive advantage in the industry [14] - Poly Property (6049 HK) achieved a revenue of 17.13 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year, with expectations for continued stable growth in 2026 [24] - Times Electric (688187 CH) reported a revenue of 28.703 billion yuan, up 15.23% year-on-year, with strong performance in its non-rail business segments [25]

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Positive" and the rating is maintained [5] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the peak season inventory reduction is becoming evident, and a profit turning point is expected. Geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict involving Iran, have led to increased raw material prices, which are expected to support steel prices in the short term. The domestic crude steel production for January-February 2026 was 160.335 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, while steel product output was 221.19 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year. The report anticipates a continued reduction in steel industry supply starting in 2026, driven by policies aimed at optimizing supply structures towards low-carbon and environmentally friendly practices [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Peak Season Inventory Reduction and Profit Turning Point - The geopolitical situation has caused market fluctuations, with raw material prices rising, providing support for steel prices. The report expects a trend of reduced supply in the steel industry starting in 2026, promoting high-quality development [11]. 2. Supply: Downstream Recovery and Increased Steel Production - The average daily pig iron production was 2.2815 million tons, up 3.14% week-on-week, and rebar production was 2.03 million tons, up 4.11% week-on-week. The report notes a significant increase in production and capacity utilization rates for both long and short process rebar [14][17]. 3. Inventory: Downstream Demand Recovery and Slight Inventory Reduction - Total inventory decreased by 1.45% week-on-week, with social and steel mill inventories both showing a downward trend. The report highlights a recovery in downstream demand, with a total apparent consumption of steel products reaching 8.68 million tons, an increase of 8.82% week-on-week [20][22]. 4. Demand: Entering Traditional Peak Season with Notable Demand Increase - The apparent consumption of steel products has increased significantly, with rebar consumption rising by 17.69% week-on-week. The report indicates that the demand is expected to continue improving as the industry enters its traditional peak season [22][23]. 5. Cost and Profitability: Rising Steel Costs Slightly Squeeze Profits - The average pig iron cost was 2299 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week. The profitability rate for steel companies was 42.42%, up 1.29 percentage points week-on-week. The report notes that while costs are rising, the high inventory levels of iron ore may provide downward pressure on prices [34][37]. 6. Steel Prices: Effective Cost Support and Positive Demand Outlook - The report states that the steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.07%, with expectations for continued price support due to rising costs and improving demand conditions [43][44]. 7. Sector Performance: Impact of Geopolitical Tensions - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38% during the week, while the steel sector index dropped by 10.29%. The report highlights the negative impact of geopolitical tensions on market performance [47][49].

Core Viewpoint - The recent attacks on Iran's upstream oil and gas facilities, particularly the South Pars gas field, have escalated energy supply risks and led to a surge in global oil prices, indicating a significant impact on the energy market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - Following the news of the attacks, Brent crude oil futures spiked, surpassing $100, with spot prices trading around $105 per barrel [5]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has contributed to a nearly 70% increase in Brent crude prices this year, primarily driven by the escalation of hostilities between the U.S. and Israel against Iran [11]. Group 2: Energy Supply Risks - The South Pars gas field, which is crucial for Iran's natural gas production, has been targeted, marking a significant escalation in energy risks in the Gulf region [8][10]. - Iran's gas supply is vital for Turkey, and any disruption could lead to increased demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in an already tight market [10]. Group 3: Shipping and Transportation Challenges - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy transport route, is experiencing near-total stoppage, complicating alternative shipping routes [11]. - Iraq is attempting to restart a pipeline to Turkey to resume some oil exports, but its capacity is limited, only able to carry a fraction of pre-war production levels [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices fluctuated weakly. The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict led to a decrease in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, suppressing the precious metal price trend [3][6]. - The US - Iran war has entered its third week. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, launched missiles and drones, and shows no intention to seek a cease - fire. Trump is facing pressure to end the conflict, but the internal consideration is to maintain the war for another four to six weeks [3][6]. - The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving up global inflation expectations and making the market re - evaluate central bank policies. The market expects the Fed to hold rates in March, with less than one rate cut expected this year. The eurozone is expected to raise rates twice this year. Precious metals are expected to show a weak trend [3][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 1133.00 | - 7.80 | - 0.68 | 102674 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T+D | 1131.25 | - 7.21 | - 0.63 | 52266 | 238270 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 5023.10 | - 158.20 | - 3.05 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 20923 | - 931 | - 4.26 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T+D | 20887 | - 463 | - 2.17 | 226134 | 2886170 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 80.65 | - 4.05 | - 4.78 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Platinum | 541.60 | - 18.90 | - 3.37 | 4742 | 7612 | Yuan/gram | | Platinum 9995 | 541.35 | - 10.62 | - 1.92 | | | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Platinum | 2024.50 | - 10.62 | - 5.92 | | | US dollars/ounce | | GFEX Palladium | 408.10 | - 10.62 | - 3.18 | 1969 | 7612 | Yuan/gram | | NYMEX Palladium | 1561.00 | - 10.62 | - 5.79 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices fluctuated weakly last week due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, which reduced Fed rate - cut expectations and boosted the US dollar and Treasury yields [3][6]. - The US - Iran war situation is tense. Iran's actions have caused dissatisfaction among Gulf allies. Trump is under pressure, but the conflict may continue for another four to six weeks [3][6]. - US inflation data met market expectations. The Fed is expected to maintain rates in the upcoming policy meeting, and rising inflation may delay rate cuts [6]. - The Middle - East conflict is escalating, driving up global inflation and changing central bank policy expectations. Precious metals are expected to be weak [7]. 3. Important Data Information - In January, the US core PCE rose 3.1% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, with a 0.4% month - on - month increase, in line with expectations [9]. - In February, the US CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, meeting expectations [9]. - In January, US JOLTS job openings increased by 396,000 to 6.946 million, higher than the expected 6.75 million, indicating labor market improvement [9]. - Last week, the US initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 213,000, slightly below expectations. The January trade deficit narrowed by 25% to $54.5 billion, and exports increased by 5.5% month - on - month [9]. - The revised US GDP in Q4 last year grew 0.7% annually, down from the initial 1.4%. January durable goods orders were flat, far below the expected 1.1% growth [9]. - The preliminary March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 55.5 from 56.6 in February. Consumers expect 3.4% price increases in the next year, lower than the expected 3.7% [9]. - The energy price surge caused by the Iran war has changed European Central Bank policy expectations. The market now prices in two 25 - basis - point rate hikes by the ECB this year, and the Bank of England is expected to raise rates 15 basis points [10]. 4. Relevant Data Charts - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions Changes**: For gold futures, on March 10, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 324,875, short positions were 63,135, and net long positions were 261,740, an increase of 12,210 from the previous week. For silver futures, on March 10, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 33,306, short positions were 8,728, and net long positions were 24,578, an increase of 1,240 from the previous week [12][14]. - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: As of March 13, 2026, the total ETF gold holding was 1,071.56 tons, a decrease of 1.76 tons from the previous week. The iShares silver holding was 15,460.18 tons, a decrease of 301.44 tons from the previous week [13]. - There are also multiple charts showing the relationship between precious metal prices and various factors such as inventory, US dollar, inflation, etc. [15][17][19][21][23][25][28][33][35][37][39][41][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increase in social financing (社融) in February, which amounted to 2.38 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations and showing a year-on-year increase of 146.9 billion yuan. The growth rate of social financing stock remained stable at 8.2% [1][6]. Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - In February, social financing increased by 2.38 trillion yuan, higher than the market average expectation of 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 146.9 billion yuan [1][6]. - The stock of social financing grew at a rate of 8.2%, unchanged from the previous month. Notably, the increase in entity credit and non-discounted bank acceptance bills was significant, while government bonds saw a year-on-year decrease [1][6]. - Entity credit rose by 850 billion yuan in February, a year-on-year increase of 197.2 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 5.75 trillion yuan for January-February, comparable to the same period in 2023-2025 [7][10]. Group 2: Demand Structure and Financing Environment - The improvement in demand was primarily observed in the corporate sector, with short-term loans increasing by 270 billion yuan and long-term loans by 350 billion yuan. This was influenced by the central bank's requirement for "balanced credit allocation" [2][10]. - The financing environment for enterprises was supported by rising industrial prices, particularly in the non-ferrous and AI sectors, which improved profit expectations and led to increased inventory and capital expenditure [2][10]. - In contrast, household financing remained weak, with short-term loans decreasing by 195.2 billion yuan and long-term loans by 66.5 billion yuan, likely due to the timing of the Spring Festival affecting consumption patterns [2][11]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Corporate Bonds - Government bonds increased by 1.4 trillion yuan in February, but this was a year-on-year decrease of 290.3 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds this year is similar to that of 2025, shifting from a supportive to a neutral impact on social financing [3][11]. - Corporate bonds saw an increase of 152.1 billion yuan in February, although this was a year-on-year decrease of 18.1 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced financing in the real estate and construction sectors [3][12]. Group 4: Monetary Aggregates - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 was 5.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, influenced by a low base effect and increased financing from the real sector [4][13]. - M2's year-on-year growth rate remained stable at 9.0%. An analysis of January-February data showed a decrease in household deposits and loans, while non-bank deposits increased, indicating a trend towards deleveraging and a shift towards equity assets [4][13]. Group 5: Overall Financial Data Insights - Cumulatively, social financing increased by over 310 billion yuan year-on-year for January-February, with M1 and M2 growth rates improving, indicating overall liquidity remains relatively ample [5][14]. - The strong performance of equity assets in January-February was supported by significant exports and rising industrial prices, although geopolitical factors and rising oil prices in March may alter this dynamic [5][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US February CPI annual rate was 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate was 2.5%, in line with market expectations. Due to concerns about the escalation of the Middle - East conflict, energy prices rose again, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover, with the economy and inflation remaining relatively stable. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. [2] - For assets: The stock index may experience increased short - term volatility, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; non - ferrous metals will be in short - term oscillation, and short - term cautious observation is recommended; energy and chemical products will be in short - term oscillation with an upward bias, and cautious long positions are recommended; precious metals will be in short - term oscillation, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Driven by sectors such as chemicals, batteries, and coal, the domestic stock market has rebounded in the short - term. Fundamentally, China's economic sentiment in February showed a slight slowdown, but exports exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The government work report's 2026 development targets and policy intensity are lower than in 2025. The market's trading logic focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks. In the short - term, with the decline in global inflation expectations, market sentiment has improved, and the stock index has rebounded. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, domestic two - sessions policies, and market sentiment. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] - **Precious Metals**: On Wednesday night, the precious metals market declined overall. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1151.48 yuan/gram, a 0.37% decline; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21997 yuan/kilogram, a 2.8% decline. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and market expectations of rising interest rates, the price of gold oscillated downward. Spot gold fell continuously during the day and reached an intraday low of 5149.01 US dollars during the US trading session, finally closing down 0.32% at 5175.91 US dollars per ounce; spot silver followed gold down, finally closing down 2.98% at 85.69 US dollars per ounce. Precious metals will oscillate in the short - term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. [3] 3.2 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Wednesday, the domestic steel spot market declined slightly, and the futures price continued to oscillate, with low trading volume. The steel futures did not follow the decline in crude oil but showed some resilience. Ansteel and Bengang announced price policies for April, with plate prices increased by 200 yuan/ton. The actual fundamentals of steel have not improved significantly, and steel and billet inventories remain at high levels. Although the apparent consumption of the five major steel products rebounded last week, the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. In terms of supply, the output of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the hot metal output decreased significantly, mainly due to temporary production restrictions during the two - sessions. Future supply will remain at a high level. Recently, cost and macro - logic dominate the steel market, and an interval oscillation approach is recommended. [4][5] - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Iron ore prices did not follow the decline in crude oil prices. Last week, the average daily hot metal output of blast furnaces decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to production restrictions in the north during the two - sessions. Given that steel mills still have certain profits and strong production enthusiasm, future demand depends on the resumption of production process. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 4.429 million tons month - on - month this week, and the short - term supply of iron ore is still in the off - season. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for iron ore. [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices continued a slight rebound. The spot price of manganese ore remained stable. The semi - carbonate in Tianjin Port was quoted at 40 yuan/ton - degree and above, the South African high - iron index was quoted at 33 - 35 yuan/ton - degree, Gabon was quoted at 45 yuan/ton - degree, South32 Australian lump was quoted at 44 yuan/ton - degree, and cml Australian lump was quoted at 45 - 46 yuan/ton - degree. In terms of supply, the capacity utilization rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises in the country was 35.7%, an increase of 0.08% from last week; the daily output was 27,980 tons/day, a decrease of 225 tons. Currently, the start - up situation in the north is relatively stable, and factories are gradually hedging, with a good profit margin. The ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron is 6100 yuan/ton. Downstream steel mills have started to implement procurement tender plans after the Spring Festival, and the resumption of the trader market is also progressing steadily. On March 5, a steel mill in Jiangsu tendered for silicon iron at 5930 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 1000 tons, delivered to the factory with acceptance. Other steel mills are waiting for HBIS's tender. An interval oscillation approach is recommended for the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese, and attention should be paid to the risk of a sharp fall after a rise. [6] 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Wednesday, domestic and foreign inventories continued to accumulate. The LME copper inventory reached 312,000 tons, and the visible inventory of the three major exchanges exceeded 1.2 million tons, hitting a record high. Recently, LME copper and Shanghai copper have oscillated at high levels without a clear direction, and the future trend is uncertain. Technically, the current situation is similar to the months - long oscillation of gold last year. Fundamentally, although it is weak, it is not the main factor of concern for funds, and the macro - situation is the main influencing factor. Future attention should be paid to changes in the US interest - rate cut expectations. Fundamentally, due to the high price of sulfuric acid and the relatively high prices of gold and silver, the overall income of smelters is still guaranteed, so the refined copper output is at the highest level in the same period in history, with a year - on - year increase close to double - digits. The refined copper output in March is expected to reach 1.2 million tons, a record high. [7] - **Aluminum**: Currently, the news is fluctuating, and the market is volatile. Technically, the form has not deteriorated. With the short - term continuation of the Middle - East situation, the aluminum price will still be supported. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the support at 24,500 yuan. For the medium - term trend, it is relatively cautious, mainly due to the restart of European aluminum smelters and the high domestic aluminum output. [7] - **Zinc**: In 2026, the supply of zinc concentrate will be further released, with an expected increase of about 300,000 - 400,000 tons. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product income makes up for the losses, so the domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level. Overseas smelters reduced production in 2025 but will resume production in 2026, with output increasing. The demand side is not optimistic. Real estate, infrastructure, transportation, and emerging fields such as photovoltaics are difficult to significantly boost the demand for zinc, and it may even decline. The domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased seasonally and is currently at a high level; the LME zinc inventory remains at around 100,000 tons, and the overall inventory pressure is not large but has increased significantly compared with the previous period. [8] - **Lead**: In the short - to - medium term, the lead output is at a high level. The demand side is affected by the over - consumption of the trade - in policy, and the peak season has passed, gradually entering the off - season. Since 2026, the social inventory of primary lead has continued to increase, with the fastest inventory accumulation rate in recent years. The inventory reached 73,700 tons, decreased briefly, and then increased again. In terms of absolute inventory level, it still exceeds the same period in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Since 2025, the LME lead inventory has remained at a high level. [8][9] - **Nickel**: The intensification of the Middle - East conflict has tightened the sulfur supply, and the cost side supports the price of MHP. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement in the future, but the increase is expected to be limited, and a year - on - year decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. Since the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources allows mining enterprises to use one - quarter of the "old quota" in the first quarter, mining enterprises will maintain normal production in the first quarter without a supply gap. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are restricted by its own poor fundamentals. As of March 9, the LME nickel inventory reached 287,418 tons, much higher than the same period in recent years. Since September 2025, the inventory has accumulated rapidly, when it was only 210,000 tons. The domestic inventory is similar. Since September 2025, especially since late September, the inventory accumulation has accelerated, reaching the highest level in recent years. [9] - **Tin**: On Wednesday, the LME inventory increased by 590 tons to 8605 tons, the highest level in two years. On the supply side, the smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally, with an increase of 6.61% to 57.99%. With the progress of the pumping process in the tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, full resumption of production will be achieved, and the tin ore output and exports to China will further increase. On the demand side, the industry is highly differentiated. The production and demand of integrated circuits are still growing rapidly, but the traditional consumer electronics industry is in the off - season. China's photovoltaic installation scale in 2026 will decline compared with 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles have slowed down significantly, and the household appliance production plan in March has continued the decline in February, confirming the over - consumption effect of the previous trade - in policy. As the price has dropped significantly, market transactions have improved, and downstream enterprises have made concentrated purchases at low prices. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased by 206 tons to 13,250 tons. In summary, the actual fundamentals have not changed much, and the price decline is due to the ebb of sentiment. In the future, it will still be a game between long - term narratives and weak real - world fundamentals, and the price will continue to be weak in the short - term. [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Wednesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate 2605 fell 5.14%, with the latest settlement price of 159,840 yuan/ton. The weighted contract reduced its position by 3290 lots, and the total position was 625,900 lots. SMM quoted the battery - grade lithium carbonate at 159,000 yuan/ton (a 500 - yuan increase month - on - month), and the basis between futures and spot was - 980 yuan/ton. For lithium ore, the latest CIF price of Australian spodumene was 2240 US dollars/ton (unchanged month - on - month). The production profit of purchasing lithium mica was 21 yuan/ton, and the production profit of purchasing spodumene was - 855 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lithium carbonate is continuously decreasing, and the strong reality persists. It is expected that lithium carbonate will oscillate at a high level. Do not chase the rise, and patiently wait for opportunities to enter long positions after the price drops. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of industrial silicon 2605 rose 0.17%, with the latest settlement price of 8610 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 355,000 lots, an increase of 10,946 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 was 9200 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the futures price was at a discount of 580 yuan/ton. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. The cost side is driven by coking coal. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the bottom, and interval operations are recommended. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Wednesday, the main contract of polysilicon 2605 fell 0.47%, with the latest settlement price of 42,735 yuan/ton. The weighted contract's position was 55,000 lots, a reduction of 399 lots. The latest N - type re -投料 price from Steel Union was 49,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), the N - type silicon wafer price was 1.05 yuan/piece (unchanged month - on - month), the single - crystal Topcon battery piece (M10) price was 0.415 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month), and the Topcon component (distributed): 210mm price was 0.77 yuan/watt (unchanged month - on - month). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 10,690 lots (an increase of 120 lots month - on - month). The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, the number of warehouse receipts is increasing rapidly, and the downstream silicon wafer price is dropping rapidly. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly, and short - position holders should be cautious. [13][14] 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has generally declined, and the basis of the port methanol market has remained stable. In mid - March, it was 2640 yuan/ton, with a basis of 05 + 40 yuan/ton; in late March, it was 2640 - 2700 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 35/+50; in late April, it was 2670 yuan/ton, with a basis of around 05 + 50. The conflict between the US and Iran has eased temporarily, oil prices have fallen, and energy and chemical products have collectively risen and then fallen. The methanol futures price has declined, and the basis is relatively stable, indicating that the spot side still has some support. In the short - term, it is expected to decline, but due to the intertwined long and short factors such as the non - substantial cease - fire of the US - Iran conflict and the non - restart of Iranian methanol plants, the actual progress needs to be monitored. [15] - **PP**: The spot price has been range - bound, strengthening by about 100 - 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The mainstream price of East China drawn wire is 8100 - 8400 yuan/ton. Crude oil has fallen sharply, the geopolitical premium has been reversed, and polypropylene has risen and then fallen. The development of the geopolitical conflict is still uncertain, and short - term volatility has increased. Attention should be paid to geopolitical dynamics. [15] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price has been adjusted, and the LLDPE transaction price is 7750 - 8500 yuan/ton. The price of North China LL has increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, the price of East China has increased by 50 - 250 yuan/ton, and the price of South China has decreased by 100 - 500 yuan/ton. The crude oil price has risen and then fallen, the cost of polyethylene has loosened, and the price has fallen significantly under the influence of market sentiment. The short - term volatility is severe. Temporarily observe and wait for the end of the price decline, and pay attention to the progress of the US - Iran conflict. [16] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market has been generally stable. The supply pressure has continued to increase, and the daily output of urea has remained at a high level of over 220,000 tons. The expectation of resuming production and

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Unilateral trading returns to a wait - and - see approach; focus on positive arbitrage entry opportunities when the basis partially falls; pay attention to the fluctuation range of the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread [2][7] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Adopt a short - long strategy on dips [7] - Coking Coal and Coke: Unilateral trading is on a temporary wait - and - see; consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions in batches [5][7] - Iron Ore: Wait for the conflict to ease and the crude oil price to fall back before shorting iron ore [6] 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: After the release of market sentiment, be cautious about chasing high prices. The black sector currently has weak supply and demand. In the future, it may enter a stage of high supply and demand. The spillover effect of the energy - chemical sector may drive up coal prices, but after many varieties hit the daily limit on Monday, chasing long positions requires caution [2] - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Due to the continuation of geopolitical conflicts, the prices are supported by supply disruptions and cost increases. However, the fundamentals show weak supply and demand, high inventory, and strong resistance to price increases. The basis is weakening, so it is not recommended to chase high prices [3] - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented. Geopolitical conflicts affect the market. The futures market is dominated by geopolitical themes. Market volatility is expected to intensify. Speculators can use call option strategies, and industrial clients can consider establishing long - spot positive arbitrage positions [5] - Iron Ore: With the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, risk assets fluctuate more. It is not recommended to short black varieties, especially coal. There is a certain inventory replenishment expectation, but port inventory is a pressure factor. Wait for the conflict to ease to short iron ore [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On March 9, for far - month contracts, RB2610 closed at 3147 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.29%), HC2610 at 3282 yuan/ton (up 45 yuan, 1.39%), etc. For near - month contracts, RB2605 closed at 3119 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan, 1.30%), HC2605 at 3270 yuan/ton (up 51 yuan, 1.58%) [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: On March 9, the hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 151 yuan/ton (up 9 yuan), the rebar - iron ore ratio was 3.98 (down 0.02), etc [1] Spot Market - **Steel Products**: On March 9, Shanghai rebar was at 3230 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan), Shanghai hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan), etc. The billet - steel price difference was 270 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan) [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On March 9, Ganqimaodu coking fine coal was at 1175 yuan/ton (unchanged), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (ex - warehouse) at 1480 yuan/ton (unchanged) [1] - **Iron Ore**: On March 9, Rizhao Port PB fines were at 779 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan), Shou'an Port Super Special fines at 660 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan) [1] Basis - On March 9, the HC main contract basis was 10 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), the RB main contract basis was 111 yuan/ton (up 29 yuan), etc [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the US President indicates the war is almost over and is considering controlling the Strait of Hormuz, and the US government is considering further relaxing sanctions on Russian oil. Energy prices have dropped significantly, global inflation expectations have weakened in the short - term, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's economic sentiment slowed slightly in February, but inflation continued to recover, and the economy and inflation are generally stable. The government work report's goals and policies for 2026 are less aggressive than in 2025. The market is currently focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and market sentiment has improved due to the decline in global inflation expectations. [2][3] - For different asset classes: short - term stock index may have increased volatility, and it is advisable to be cautious and go long; government bonds may fluctuate in the short - term, and it is advisable to watch carefully; for the commodity sector, black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may fluctuate in the short - term, with cautious long positions for precious metals and cautious watching for the others; energy and chemical products have significantly declined in the short - term, and it is advisable to watch carefully. [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: The US President's statements and potential policy changes have alleviated the energy crisis, leading to a significant drop in energy prices, a short - term weakening of global inflation expectations, and a rise in global risk appetite. [2] - Domestic: China's economic sentiment slowed in February, but inflation continued to recover. The government work report's goals and policies for 2026 are less ambitious than in 2025. The market is focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has improved. [2][3] - Asset Recommendations: Short - term stock index: cautious long; government bonds: cautious watching; black metals: cautious watching; non - ferrous metals: cautious watching; energy and chemical products: cautious watching; precious metals: cautious long. [2] Stock Index - Domestic stocks have declined in the short - term due to the drag of sectors such as airport shipping, military industry, and semiconductor components. The economy and inflation are generally stable, but the government work report's goals and policies for 2026 are less aggressive. The market is focused on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has improved. It is advisable to be cautious and go long in the short - term. [3] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on Monday night. Due to the initial rise in oil prices and subsequent decline, gold and silver prices fluctuated. Gold initially fell and then rebounded, while silver rose significantly. It is advisable to be cautious and go long in the short - term. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot steel market rebounded slightly on Monday, with the futures price rising and then falling. The cost support logic has strengthened due to the rise in oil and related energy prices. The real - world demand is weakening, and inventory is at a high level. It is advisable to view the market as oscillating and strengthening. [5] - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded on Monday. The decline in iron - water production was due to temporary restrictions during the Two Sessions. The supply of iron ore is in the off - season, and the rise in oil prices has increased transportation costs. It is advisable to view the market as oscillating and strengthening. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded slightly on Monday, with the futures price rising and then falling. The strong prices of manganese ore and oil have boosted the silicon - manganese market. The supply of silicon manganese has changed slightly, and downstream demand is gradually recovering. It is advisable to view the market as rebounding. [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The peak season has arrived, but the demand needs to be verified. Refined copper production is at a record high, and inventories at home and abroad are accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but short - term sufficiency. [8] - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum fluctuated significantly on Monday due to the rise and fall of oil prices. The price is still supported by the short - term situation in the Middle East. [8] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. Domestic smelting production is at a relatively high level, but the demand is not optimistic. Inventory has increased seasonally, but the overall pressure is not large. [9] - **Lead**: In the short - to - medium term, lead production is at a high level, but the demand is weakening due to policy over - consumption and the end of the peak season. Inventory has increased significantly. [9][10] - **Nickel**: The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. Although there is room for improvement, the decline compared to 2025 is likely. The price has strong support below but limited upward momentum. Inventory at home and abroad is at a high level. [10] - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate has increased seasonally, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is divided, with some industries growing and others in a downturn. The price has declined due to the ebb of sentiment, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term. [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price of the main contract rose on Monday. The market's panic has subsided, and inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is advisable to watch carefully. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the main contract rose on Monday. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with high inventory. It is priced close to the cost, and it is advisable to operate within a range. [12] - **Polysilicon**: The price of the main contract rose on Monday. Inventory is at a high level, and the price of downstream silicon wafers is falling. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable for short - sellers to hold positions carefully. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price rose significantly in the Asian session and then fell due to the release of emergency oil reserves and the US President's statement. It may continue to oscillate significantly before the short - term situation becomes clear. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt followed the oil price and oscillated at a high level. There may be further downward pressure. The inventory is at a relatively low level, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. It is advisable to pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran. [15] - **PX**: The price of PX followed the oil price and strengthened and then fell. Due to device accidents and the strength of naphtha, it will continue to be strong in the near future. It is necessary to beware of downstream negative feedback. [15] - **PTA**: The price of PTA followed the oil price and strengthened. The downstream production and sales are good, but there is a risk of negative feedback. It is advisable to pay attention to terminal orders and downstream inventory. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol followed the oil price and rose, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be limited unless the oil price rises significantly. [16] - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber followed the energy and chemical sector and strengthened. The downstream start - up rate is increasing, and the inventory has increased recently. It is advisable to observe the increase in peak - season orders. [16] - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the port basis has strengthened. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to be strong, but it is necessary to beware of downstream shutdown risks. [17] - **PP**: The market price of PP has risen, but the spot transaction may be affected. The price may fluctuate significantly in the short - term, and it is advisable to pay attention to geopolitical dynamics. [17] - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has risen, and the downstream demand is recovering. The supply and demand situation has improved, and the price may continue to strengthen. It is necessary to beware of abnormal fluctuations in the oil price due to geopolitics. [18] - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is rising steadily. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price increase is limited due to price - limit policies. [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans on the CBOT market fell overnight. The export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slower than last year. The market is waiting for the USDA's monthly crop supply and demand report. [19] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The purchase of March - shipped soybeans by oil mills is basically completed. The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal have strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the high inventory and weak demand in China suppress the market. The supply of imported rapeseed will increase, increasing the risk of price fluctuations. [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The rise in oil prices has increased the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the bullish market of oils. The basis of soybean oil has fallen, and the spot transaction is almost stagnant. The basis of rapeseed oil is stable, and the transaction is light. [21][22] - **Palm Oil**: The price of palm oil futures rose overnight. Indonesia may restart the B50 plan due to the rise in oil prices. The price of palm oil has fallen with the decline of international oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to the B50 plan and the MPOB report. The supply and demand of Malaysian palm oil are expected to decrease in February, and the inventory will shrink. [23] - **Corn**: The domestic corn price has risen. The futures market has boosted the spot price. The demand for replenishment by deep - processing enterprises and traders is strong, but the increase in imported barley and the expected release of policy - based grain sources may limit the upward space. [24] - **Pigs**: The national pig price is weakly stable. The market's weight - gain expectation is weak, and the terminal demand is still weak. Although the second - fattening entry has increased slightly, the possibility of price increase is small. [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In February 2026, the steel mill profitability rate was around 38%, still in a moderately low range. The cost of raw materials remained resilient, and the immediate profit improvement space for steel mills was limited. Steel mills' production enthusiasm was generally cautious [11]. - In February 2026, the production of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased compared to the same period last year and last month. The decline was mainly due to the Spring Festival holiday, reduced actual production time, partial steel mill maintenance, and stagnant demand [11]. - In February 2026, the apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil also decreased significantly compared to the same period last year and last month. The demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival. The rebar demand decline was more obvious, mainly reflecting the seasonal shutdown of the construction industry [11]. - As of February 2026, rebar inventory showed seasonal accumulation but was still relatively low year - on - year, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased year - on - year, and the inventory pressure of plates began to appear [11]. - Overseas, geopolitical conflicts led to concerns about crude oil supply and an increase in global inflation expectations. Domestically, the government's policy combination supported infrastructure and manufacturing investment, providing medium - term support for steel demand. However, real - estate policies mainly focused on risk resolution and stock optimization, with limited incremental pull on steel demand [11]. - Currently, the recovery speed of hot - rolled coil demand is slow, and inventory accumulation is obvious. The core contradiction in the black - series market lies in the verification of the intensity of peak - season demand recovery. Before the real recovery of demand, prices are likely to fluctuate. High - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rate, building materials trading volume, and cement and building materials daily consumption should be focused on to judge the demand recovery rhythm [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: In February 2026, the steel mill profitability rate was about 38%, in a moderately low range. The cost of raw materials was resilient, and the immediate profit improvement space for steel mills was limited. Steel mills' production enthusiasm was cautious [11]. - **Supply**: In February 2026, rebar production was 6.9632 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 690,000 tons (- 9.02%) and a month - on - month decrease of 28.14%. Hot - rolled coil production was 12.3634 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 676,800 tons (- 5.19%) and a month - on - month decrease of 19.35%. The decrease was due to the Spring Festival, reduced production time, partial maintenance, and stagnant demand [11]. - **Demand**: In February 2026, rebar apparent consumption was 3.7125 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.13 million tons (- 23.34%) and a month - on - month decrease of 59.98%. Hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 11.3977 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17 million tons (- 9.34%) and a month - on - month decrease of 26.69%. The demand was significantly affected by the Spring Festival [11]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2026, rebar inventory was 8.006 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 628,400 tons. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 170,000 tons (+ 3.85%) [11]. - **Conclusion**: Overseas geopolitical conflicts affected the market, and domestically, policies supported steel demand to some extent. The current core contradiction is the verification of peak - season demand recovery. Before demand recovers, prices are likely to fluctuate. High - frequency indicators should be monitored [11]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Multiple charts show the price trends and trading volumes of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions, as well as the basis, price differences between contracts, and price differences between different products [23][25][28]. - The price trends of cold - rolled coil, color - coated coil, and galvanized sheet are also presented, along with the price differences between them and hot - rolled coil [64][70][73]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Charts display the disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as the gross profits per ton of hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, and rebar in different production processes [78][81][83]. - The inventory data of rebar and hot - rolled coil, including total inventory, factory inventory, and social inventory, are presented [91][94][103]. 3.4 Cost End - Charts show the ratios of rebar to iron ore and coke futures, daily molten iron production, crude steel daily production, billet prices, rebar - billet price differences, scrap steel prices, and scrap steel consumption [109][112][128]. 3.5 Supply End - The production, production capacity utilization rate, and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are presented [131][134][136]. 3.6 Demand and Import - Export - The apparent consumption and cumulative year - on - year changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil are shown [143][146]. - The export and production data of household appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners are presented [149][151][153]. - The import and export data of steel, rebar, and plates are presented [156][158][161].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The market has short - term uncertainties, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 0.81% to $5093.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.80% to $82.52 per ounce. Shanghai gold's main contract dropped 1.35% to 1135.48 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract declined 1.63% to 21305 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - On March 5, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 5.144 tons from the previous day, with the current holdings at 1075.894 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.7%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 97.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by April is 12.5%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 87.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.3%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut by June is 30.7% [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 28 was 213,000, the highest since the week of February 7, falling short of the market expectation of 215,000 [1] - CME announced that it will lower the initial margin of its COMEX 100 gold futures from 9% to 7% and the initial margin of COMEX 5000 silver futures from 18% to 14%, effective after the close on March 6, 2026 [1] - According to the World Gold Council, global gold ETFs had a net inflow of $5.3 billion in February, achieving nine consecutive months of capital inflows and the strongest annual start ever [1] - In the Middle - East conflict, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Lavanchi said that Iran has not selected a new supreme leader and is ready to abandon its nuclear program if the US offers a satisfactory alternative. The US military is reported to be preparing for a 100 - day operation against Iran until September [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, the US dollar index regained its upward momentum, closing up 0.24% at 99.04. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond continued to rise, closing at 4.14%, with a cumulative increase of about 19 basis points in the past four trading days. The stronger US dollar and rising US bond yields suppressed precious metals. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continued, and the blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz drove up oil prices, leading to an increase in the global inflation expectation and a further decline in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The US stock market fell on Thursday, and COMEX gold and silver had a slight correction [1][2] Trading Strategy - Due to the high short - term uncertainty in the market, investors should control their positions and prevent risks [2]