2026年的前10个交易日已向全球市场传递出一个明确的信号：地缘政治的不稳定性正在加剧，这促使军 工板块继续确立其作为年度核心长期增长主题的地位。 在亚洲，国防与安全也迅速成为2026开年的主要投资主题，这主要得益于该地区企业在出口订单方面的 增长预期。韩国承包商表现尤为抢眼，Hanwha Aerospace Co.股价在上一年翻了两番后，本月上涨近 30%；同行业的Hyundai Rotem Co.也上涨了16%。 JPMorgan Private Bank全球投资策略师Weiheng Chen表示，看好大型国防供应商，尤其是韩国企业，因 为它们正扩大出口业务以利用全球国防开支激增的红利。 引发这一轮市场重新定价的催化剂来自多重地缘震荡。俄乌冲突持续深入，美军在委内瑞拉采取行动强 行控制其领导人，以及特朗普重申美国应控制格陵兰岛的言论，加剧了市场对全球安全架构的担忧。这 些事件不仅令投资者警觉，更直接强化了各国政府增加军事开支的预期。 市场对此作出了激烈的反应。据彭博数据，高盛编制的一篮子欧洲军工股继2025年飙升90%之后，仅在 今年1月便再度上涨21%。这一涨势同样蔓延至亚洲市场，韩国和日本的主要防务承 ...

A股三大股指开盘涨跌不一，沪指涨0.06%，创业板指跌0.45%。盘面上，脑机接口、锂矿、人形机器人 板块涨幅居前，通信设备、商业航天、军工板块跌幅靠前。 德邦证券表示，展望后续，当前人民币兑美元仍旧保持上行趋势，A股市场春季行情有望逐步展开，预 期A股市场未来或仍将延续震荡慢牛走势。针对近期的市场传闻，宇树科技回应其上市过程仍在正常推 进中，而美国对委内瑞拉的军事行动也进一步提升了原油的资源品的重要性。市场仍处于科技成长叠加 资源周期震荡上行趋势，建议持续关注商业航天、人工智能、机器人等相关科技领域，此外，石油石 化、有色金属等周期板块未来或有持续表现。 东方证券：沪指攻克四千点 市场延续震荡攀升趋势不变 东方证券认为，早盘亚太市场全线发力，MSCI新兴市场指数涨1.1%，超过此前历史收盘纪录，A股也 不示弱，沪综指12连阳重新站上4000点大关。整体来看，假期期间港股市场与人民币汇率走强有助于提 振投资者信心，市场延续震荡攀升趋势不变，新质产业的政策预期与商业化突破将继续引领资金加大流 入商业航天、AI、脑机接口、核聚变等众多新兴产业，将有助于提升市场风险偏好，继续引领结构化 投资热点。 本文转载自"腾讯 ...

个股出现大面积下跌，银行股相对抗跌。 周四A股出现调整，个股出现大面积下跌，截止收盘下跌个股家数超过4300家，申万一级行业中仅银行板块 逆势上涨，市场重新回到了防御思路，侧重高股息和红利低波方向。临近年底，投资者参与交易的热情有所下降，在"落袋为安"的心理影响下，近期市场 总体呈现缩量震荡的格局。预计盘局在未来数周内不会发生明显变化。 后市展望： 美联储降息落地，市场对2026年降息空间比较谨慎。周四凌晨，美联储2025年最后一次利率决议落地，降息25bp符合市场预期，但点阵 图显示2026年降息次数或仅有1次，这令市场对后续降息空间普遍持谨慎态度。临近年底，市场主要参与方的交易积极性有所下降，导致A股成交量明显 萎缩，市场开始进入一种观望氛围。但市场经历了10月以来的持续横盘震荡后，已经具备了进一步向上拓展空间的条件。2026 年中下游制造业迎来供需 形势的好转是大概率事件，A股上市公司的盈利增速有望迎来明显回升，因此当前市场在 4000 点反复震荡或为市场上一台阶做准备。11 月关注重点包括 十五五发展规划定调对产业带来的刺激作用，科技行业的事件驱动，反内卷带动的物价回升等，预计多板块有望迎来催化剂，从 ...

Market Overview - On August 12, the market experienced a slight upward trend with the three major indices rising marginally. The Shanghai and Shenzhen markets had a half-day trading volume of 1.19 trillion, an increase of 59 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.34%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.91% [1] Sector Performance - The sectors that performed well included brain-computer interfaces, ports, Xinjiang-related stocks, and liquid cooling servers, while lithium mining, military industry, rare earth permanent magnets, and photovoltaics saw declines [1] - AI hardware stocks surged again, with companies like Shenghong Technology reaching new historical highs, and Cambrian Technology rising over 15%. Brain-computer interface concept stocks were also active, with Meilan De increasing by over 10%. Xinjiang local stocks maintained strong performance, with companies like Xinjiang Communications Construction achieving three consecutive trading limits [1] - On the downside, military stocks underwent adjustments, with companies like Jieqiang Equipment dropping over 5% [1] Trading Statistics - The limit-up performance rate was 66.00%, with 33 stocks hitting the limit and 17 stocks touching the limit down. The previous day's limit-up stocks had a performance rate of 1.87% [4] - The high opening rate was 68%, with a profit rate of 53% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The market experienced a strong upward trend, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, reflecting a significant interest in AI hardware and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [1] Market Performance - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.54 trillion, an increase of 97.3 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] - Over 3,500 stocks in the market saw an increase, indicating a broad-based rally [1] Sector Highlights - AI hardware stocks surged, with companies like New Yisheng and Dongshan Precision reaching new historical highs [1] - Military stocks were active, with AVIC Shenfei also achieving a historical high [1] - Innovative pharmaceutical stocks maintained strong performance, with companies like Chengdu Xian Dao hitting the daily limit [1] - The top-performing sectors included CPO, military, PCB, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while real estate, gas, banking, and electricity sectors lagged behind [1] Index Performance - By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.43%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.76% [1]

Market Outlook - The consensus among brokerage firms indicates that the A-share market is likely to experience a volatile upward trend in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index recently breaking through 3400 points [3] - Domestic policies are supportive, including reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and IPO pre-review processes, which are expected to inject liquidity into the market [3] - Internationally, rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a calming Middle East situation are driving funds from safe-haven assets into the stock market [3] Investment Opportunities - **Technology Sector**: The technology stocks, particularly in AI, computing power, and semiconductors, are highlighted as strong investment opportunities. The resumption of IPOs for tech companies in Q3 and the ability for unprofitable tech firms to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board are seen as catalysts for growth [3][4] - **Financial Sector**: Financial stocks, including brokerages and insurance, are viewed as stable investments. Increased market trading volume is expected to boost brokerage revenues, and upcoming political meetings may provide further support for financial stocks [4] - **Performance Certainty**: Companies with strong earnings are considered reliable investments. Key sectors include military industry due to upcoming events, power equipment benefiting from summer electricity demand, and export-related industries like motorcycles and wind power [5] Risks to Consider - A significant unlocking of shares in July, amounting to 480 billion, may negatively impact market sentiment, particularly for newly listed stocks [7] - Geopolitical risks, particularly related to oil prices and inflation expectations, could create volatility in the A-share market [8] - The outcomes of key policy meetings in July, including the Federal Reserve's and the Political Bureau's, are critical; any disappointment in policy measures could lead to market downturns [9] Operational Strategies - **Flexible Position Management**: It is advised to maintain a flexible cash position, keeping around 30% in cash for potential market corrections [10] - **Diversified Portfolio**: Investors are encouraged to diversify across sectors such as technology, finance, consumer goods, and military, to mitigate risks associated with any single sector [12] - **Data Monitoring**: Continuous tracking of central bank operations and foreign capital flows is recommended to gauge market liquidity and potential investment opportunities [12]

Market Performance - On June 25, A-shares saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 1.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.72%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.11% [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of about 188.175 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Nearly 4,000 stocks in the market experienced an increase [1] Sector Highlights - The financial sector led the gains, with significant surges in brokerage and fintech stocks [1] - Notable stocks in the brokerage sector included Guosheng Financial Holdings, Tianfeng Securities, Nanhua Futures, and Xiangcai Securities, with several hitting the daily limit [1] - The military industry concept stocks also saw continued growth, with companies like Xinyu Guoke, Zhongbing Hongjian, and Changcheng Military Industry rising over 10% [1] Regulatory Developments - On June 24, multiple Chinese regulatory bodies, including the People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance, jointly released guidelines to enhance and expand consumer spending, proposing 19 specific measures to support consumption [2] - Guotai Junan International became the first Hong Kong-based Chinese brokerage to offer comprehensive virtual asset trading services, leading to a significant stock price increase of approximately 150% [2]

Core Points - The A-share market opened with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.29% [1] - Apple concept stocks are leading the gains in the market, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1] - The military industry sector remains active, suggesting ongoing investment and trading activity in this area [1]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 9.33 points, a rise of 0.28%, at 3352.0 points, with a trading volume of 501.61 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 93.53 points, an increase of 0.93%, closing at 10197.66 points, with a trading volume of 791.79 billion yuan [1] - The ChiNext Index increased by 32.94 points, a rise of 1.65%, closing at 2029.45 points, with a trading volume of 375.82 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was approximately 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 180 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Performance - The aerospace, transportation equipment, communication equipment, general equipment, and photovoltaic equipment sectors led the market gains, while the gold and jewelry sector saw significant declines [1] - The optical communication sector was highlighted as the best-performing sector, with the communication ETF (515880) rising by 3.90% and the AI ETF rising by 2.39% [1] Key Companies - NewEase (300502.SZ) had the highest trading volume at 10.03 billion yuan, followed by Zhongji Xuchuang (300308.SZ) at 9.31 billion yuan, and CATL (300750.SZ) at 7.67 billion yuan [2] - Zhongji Xuchuang reported a revenue of 23.862 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 122.64%, and a net profit of 5.171 billion yuan, up 137.93% [4] Policy Impact - The U.S. Department of Commerce indicated that the Trump administration plans to lift restrictions on AI chip exports established during the Biden era, which may benefit the optical communication sector in the A-share market [2] Industry Trends - Strong demand for AI computing power is driving the growth of optical module shipments, with significant revenue and profit increases expected [4] - Major companies like Microsoft, Meta, Google, and Amazon are projected to increase capital expenditures significantly, indicating robust growth in the cloud service provider (CSP) sector [4] - The optical communication sector is expected to see continued growth, with 800G and 1.6T optical modules anticipated to become mainstream products in the next five years [4] Military Industry Insights - The military industry is experiencing increased attention due to rising tensions in the India-Pakistan region, which may support near-term performance and valuation levels [7] - China's military trade exports accounted for 5.80% of the global market share from 2019 to 2023, with approximately 60% directed towards Pakistan [7] - The military ETF (512660) has shown strong performance, reflecting investor interest in the sector [5][8]

Market Overview - The three major stock indices in China opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.34%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.12%. The robotics sector showed weakness [1] - In the US market, the Dow Jones increased by 0.70% to 41,113.97 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.43% to 5,631.28 points, and the Nasdaq gained 0.27% to 17,738.16 points. However, popular Chinese concept stocks experienced a decline, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 2.34% [2] Sector Insights - **Military Industry**: Huatai Securities suggests that the military industry may be entering a rebound phase, with improvements noted in demand, orders, and performance in upstream sectors like information technology and new materials. The firm recommends focusing on information technology, new materials, and aerospace engines [3] - **Banking Sector**: China Galaxy Securities maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, citing a series of financial policies that have been implemented, including interest rate cuts and liquidity releases. These measures are expected to optimize the credit structure and support the banking sector's fundamentals [4] - **Automotive Industry**: Everbright Securities highlights the importance of monitoring changes in terminal discounts post-holiday, with a stable performance in the car market in April. The firm anticipates that the "trade-in" policy will boost domestic sales in 2025, emphasizing the significance of smart driving and robotics in the automotive sector [5] - **Consumer Sector**: Open Source Securities focuses on the theme of emotional consumption for retail investment in 2025, identifying four main lines: gold and jewelry, offline retail, domestic beauty brands, and medical aesthetics. The firm suggests prioritizing companies with strong brand power and competitive advantages in these segments [6]