23 September 2025 | 7:47PM EDT Equity Research Micron Technology Inc. (MU): Strong outlook driven by continued DRAM momentum and NAND inflection Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to move higher following a quarter and guidance that were well ahead of the Street, despite elevated investor expectations heading into the quarter. The DRAM market remains very healthy, and the NAND market has tightened substantially in recent months - which should drive ongoing tailwinds for Micron's business. The company' ...

Summary of Next-Generation DRAM 2025 Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Dynamic Random-Access Memory (DRAM)** industry, particularly the **High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)** and **3D DRAM** technologies [3][28][52]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Growth**: The HBM market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to rise from **$17 billion in 2024 to $98 billion by 2030**, reflecting a **33% CAGR** [52]. - **Bit Shipments**: HBM bit shipments are forecasted to grow at a **31% CAGR** through 2030, with a **193% YoY increase** in 2024 [52]. - **Revenue Share**: HBM's revenue share within the DRAM market is expected to increase from **18% in 2024 to 50% by 2030** [52]. - **Conventional DRAM Growth**: Conventional DRAM, including DDR, LPDDR, and GDDR, is expected to grow at a modest **3% CAGR** from **$80 billion in 2024** [52]. - **Technological Transition**: The industry is preparing for a shift to **3D DRAM architectures** as planar DRAM scaling reaches its limits by **2033-2034** [53][54]. Key Market Dynamics - **Supply Constraints**: Current supply constraints in HBM underscore its strategic importance in AI data centers, with major manufacturers fully allocating their production capacity through 2025 [52]. - **Investment in Capacity**: Leading suppliers, including **Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron**, are increasing wafer allocations for HBM production to meet escalating demand [52]. - **China's Advancements**: Chinese companies are making significant investments to localize memory production amid U.S. sanctions, with **CXMT** ramping up production and developing HBM capabilities [53]. Technology Trends - **CBA Integration**: The **CMOS Bonded Array (CBA)** architecture is expected to deliver up to a **30% increase in bit density** and is seen as a crucial step towards full 3D DRAM [54]. - **Emerging Technologies**: The report highlights the importance of **processing-in-memory (PiM)** and **3D DRAM** as promising long-term solutions for achieving high-density DRAM architectures [28][54]. - **Advanced Packaging**: Hybrid bonding is projected to enter the market with HBM5, particularly for high-stack configurations, enabling more than **20 dies per stack** [54][79]. Financial Metrics - **Revenue Forecasts**: The overall DRAM market is expected to grow from **$97 billion in 2024 to $194.5 billion by 2030**, with a combined CAGR of **12%** [52]. - **ASP Dynamics**: The average selling price (ASP) of HBM is projected to remain stable due to sustained demand, despite competitive pressures [52]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Cyclicality**: The report outlines the cyclicality of the DRAM market throughout history, emphasizing the need for manufacturers to adapt to price fluctuations and market dynamics [17]. - **Player Dynamics**: The competitive landscape is intensifying, with **SK hynix** leading the HBM market, followed by **Samsung** and **Micron**, who are working to catch up [53]. - **Technological Challenges**: The transition to advanced DRAM technologies faces challenges related to cost, yield, and alignment requirements, necessitating innovative solutions [54]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed understanding of the current state and future prospects of the DRAM industry, highlighting key trends, market dynamics, and technological advancements that are shaping the landscape.

Summary of Micron Technology Inc. (MU) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Micron Technology Inc. (MU) - **Industry**: Semiconductors, specifically focusing on DRAM and HBM products Key Points and Arguments Pricing and Revenue Expectations - Investors are expected to focus on Micron's HBM ramp and the sustainability of pricing strength in upcoming quarters [1][2] - Following a positive pre-announcement, revenue estimates are expected to show some upside, with moderate growth anticipated in the November quarter [1][3] - For CY25, revenue estimates align with Street consensus, while estimates for CY26 are 3% below consensus [3] HBM Market Share and Pricing Dynamics - Commentary on HBM ramp is crucial, with expectations for Micron to achieve approximately 20% market share for HBM products by the end of 2025 [4] - The sustainability of DRAM pricing strength is a key focus, especially in light of ongoing discussions regarding 2026 volumes and pricing [4][5] - Future commentary from Nvidia regarding its HBM sourcing strategy is deemed important for stock performance [5] Gross Margins and Financial Metrics - Investors are keen to understand the pace of gross margin expansion in the coming quarters, particularly with the ongoing shift towards HBM4 [4] - Financial estimates indicate a significant year-over-year increase in total revenue, with projections of $40.26 billion for CY2025 and $50.22 billion for CY2026 [8] Risks and Price Target - The 12-month price target for Micron is set at $130, based on a 13X P/E multiple applied to a normalized EPS estimate of $10.00 [9] - Key risks include the execution of the HBM roadmap, potential market share gains by competitors like CXMT, and the impact of HBM content increases for AI accelerators [9] Financial Performance Metrics - Total revenue for CY3Q25E is projected at $11.25 billion, reflecting a 45% year-over-year increase [8] - Gross margin is expected to improve to 44.6%, up from 42.0%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [8] Additional Important Content - The report highlights a balanced investor expectation heading into the earnings print, with a focus on near-term positive pricing dynamics, particularly in DRAM [2] - The ongoing competition from Chinese suppliers, such as CXMT and YMTC, is noted as a factor that could influence market dynamics and pricing [5] - Analysts have raised revenue and non-GAAP EPS estimates by an average of 2% and 5%, respectively, reflecting more positive industry pricing trends [8] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Micron Technology Inc., focusing on pricing dynamics, market share, financial performance, and associated risks.

Core Insights - TrendForce reports that the price increase for DDR4 products is greater than that for DDR5 products due to anticipated tightening of supply in the future [1] - Module manufacturers are actively stocking up, leading to a slight continuous increase in DDR5 product prices [1] - Overall, it is expected that the spot prices for both DDR4 and DDR5 products will maintain an upward trend, with the price gap between them further narrowing by the second quarter of 2025 [1]