证券研究报告·海外公司点评·软件服务(HS) 阜博集团（03738.HK） 2025 年半年报点评：收入稳健增长，净利润 同比大增 买入（维持） | Table_EPS] [盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万港元） | 2,001 | 2,401 | 3,010 | 3,680 | 4,320 | | 同比（%） | 38.70 | 20.01 | 25.36 | 22.25 | 17.39 | | 归母净利润（百万港元） | (7.82) | 142.73 | 191.28 | 260.12 | 335.89 | | 同比（%） | (118.61) | 1,925.62 | 34.02 | 35.99 | 29.13 | | Non-IFRS 净利润（百万港元） | 37.41 | 179.67 | 233.58 | 310.03 | 394.17 | | 同比（%） | (58.38) | 380.25 | 30.01 | 32.73 | 27 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is significantly influenced by the macroeconomic conditions in mainland China, with mainland enterprises accounting for 75% of the total market capitalization on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [1][3] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks is closely tied to the economic data and policies from mainland China, with strong economic indicators leading to active market performance and vice versa [1][3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The Chinese government is expected to implement counter-cyclical adjustments, with increased fiscal spending and potential issuance of special government bonds to inject liquidity into the economy [3][6] - There is a strong emphasis on boosting domestic consumption through various measures, including subsidies and tax reductions, indicating significant room for fiscal expansion [3][6] Group 3: AI Industry Growth - The AI industry in China is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2029, with an annual growth rate of 32.1%, driven by technological advancements and market investments [8] - Hong Kong's stock market has a high concentration of AI-related stocks, with over 30% of the Hang Seng Composite Index's market capitalization attributed to AI sectors, particularly in software services, telecommunications, and semiconductors [8][13] Group 4: Financial Performance - The net profit of Hong Kong's technology sector has shown robust growth, significantly outperforming the overall market and A-shares, with a year-on-year growth of 11.1% for all Hong Kong stocks in 2024 compared to -2.5% for A-shares [13][20] - The regulatory environment for platform economies in China has shifted towards promoting sustainable development, creating a favorable outlook for related enterprises [13][20] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Technology ETF (520840) is highlighted as a strategic investment tool for capturing the benefits of the AI sector, focusing on core technology areas and excluding unrelated industries [15][18] - The top ten constituents of the Hang Seng Technology Index represent leading companies in the technology sector, collectively accounting for 73.24% of the index's weight, indicating a concentrated and resilient investment opportunity [17][18] Group 6: Strategic Timing - The current market environment presents a strategic opportunity for investors, with strong macroeconomic support and a burgeoning technology sector driven by AI, making it an advantageous time to invest in Hong Kong stocks [20][21]

Core Viewpoint - Xinhua Technology International Limited has submitted its second listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2023, with CITIC Securities and Daiwa as joint sponsors [1][3]. Company Overview - Xinhua Technology is a software technology service and product provider, primarily engaged in customized software development services for Japanese clients. It ranks fourth among service providers in Japan's software technology services and solutions market, and is the largest provider of such services from China to Japan [3][4]. - The company has a significant presence in Japan, Hong Kong, and Southeast Asia, offering customized software development, standardized software products, and application hosting services [3]. Market Position - Japan is the most important overseas market for Xinhua Technology, with a large and steadily growing market for software technology services, products, and solutions. As of June 30, 2025, the company has served over 160 overseas clients, including major Japanese corporations such as Itochu Group and Hitachi Group [4]. - The company has maintained a 100% retention rate for its core clients over the past decade, with revenue from these clients showing consistent growth [4]. Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30 in 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025, the company's revenue from continuing operations was approximately RMB 1.63 billion, RMB 1.93 billion, RMB 1.80 billion, and RMB 978 million, respectively. The corresponding net profits were RMB 182 million, RMB 270 million, RMB 202 million, and RMB 187 million [4][5]. - The gross profit margins for these periods were 28.2%, 32.3%, 32.7%, and 29.1%, indicating a relatively stable profitability profile [5]. Revenue Dependency - A significant portion of the company's revenue is derived from Japanese clients, making it susceptible to changes in Japan's regulatory landscape, business environment, and socio-economic conditions [6].

Core Viewpoint - Investors may be misinterpreting Apple's recent $600 billion spending announcement, which includes a $100 billion increase over four years, as a significant shift in strategy, while it may not represent a substantial change from previous plans [1][5][11]. Spending Plans - Apple announced a $600 billion spending plan in the U.S. over four years, which includes a $100 billion increase, raising annual spending from $500 billion to $600 billion [3][4]. - The spending encompasses various expenses, not limited to capital expenditures, such as employee salaries and data center buildouts, making it less impressive compared to other tech companies like Alphabet, which is forecasting $85 billion in capital expenditures for this year [3][4]. Financial Performance - Apple's revenue growth reached its highest level since 2022, although it remains below 10% year-over-year [7]. - The growth is primarily driven by the software services division and iPhone sales, which have shown stagnation in recent quarters, raising concerns about the maturity of the iPhone product line [8]. Risks to Revenue - Services revenue is growing rapidly but faces potential risks, particularly from an antitrust lawsuit that could jeopardize Apple's $20 billion annual income from Google for being the default search engine, which constitutes about 15% of Apple's overall operating income [9]. Valuation Concerns - Despite the ambitious spending plans, Apple's growth is slower compared to its peers in the "Magnificent Seven," and it trades at a premium with a P/E ratio of 35, significantly higher than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes [12]. - This suggests that Apple may be overvalued, especially following the recent stock gains attributed to the spending announcement [13].

Core Insights - Castellum, Inc. has entered into a reseller agreement with Quarrio Corporation to provide TrustworthyAI™, an agentic AI platform designed for the federal government [1][3] - The partnership aims to enhance decision-making processes within government organizations by leveraging Quarrio's AI capabilities [2][3] Company Overview - Castellum, Inc. specializes in cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and software engineering services, primarily focused on the federal government [4] - Quarrio Corporation offers a deterministic multi-agent AI platform that provides real-time access to accurate information from various data sources, facilitating informed decision-making [3] Strategic Implications - The collaboration is expected to improve the efficiency of government operations by utilizing AI for information retrieval and KPI monitoring [2][3] - Castellum's CEO expressed optimism about the partnership, highlighting the potential for enhanced insights from the vast amounts of data generated by government entities [2]

Core Viewpoint - Figma, a leading SaaS company in AI design, successfully went public on the New York Stock Exchange with a significant IPO, raising $1.2 billion and achieving a market valuation of approximately $56.3 billion on its first trading day, marking it as the largest IPO in the U.S. for 2025 so far [1][6]. Group 1: IPO and Market Performance - Figma's IPO was priced at $33 per share, raising $1.2 billion, and opened at $85, closing at $115.5, a 250% increase [1][2]. - The company's market capitalization reached about $56.3 billion, equivalent to approximately 405.4 billion RMB [1][2]. Group 2: Company Background and Growth - Founded in 2012 by Dylan Field and Evan Wallace, Figma has grown to serve 450,000 paid customers, with 95% of Fortune 500 companies relying on its platform for product design [3][27]. - Figma's revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 48% to $749 million, with Q1 2025 revenue increasing by 46% to $228 million [5][18]. Group 3: AI Integration and Product Development - Figma's IPO narrative heavily emphasizes AI, with the term "AI" mentioned over 150 times in its prospectus, highlighting its integration across various products [5][7]. - The company plans to launch four new products in 2025, including Figma Make and Figma Draw, which will enhance its AI capabilities [9][11]. Group 4: Financial Performance and R&D Investment - Figma's R&D expenses reached approximately $751 million in 2024, reflecting a significant increase due to employee growth and related costs [21][22]. - The company reported a net profit of $738 million in 2023, primarily due to a $1 billion termination fee from a failed acquisition by Adobe [21][26]. Group 5: Market Position and Customer Base - Figma's total retention rate stands at 96%, with a net dollar retention rate of 132%, indicating strong customer loyalty [30]. - The global market for software design labor is estimated at $33 billion, with projections of growth to 144 million workers by 2029 [32].

Company Performance - Infosys has raised the lower end of its annual growth forecast for the current fiscal year after reporting better-than-expected results for the June quarter [1][3] - The company reported a net profit of 69.2 billion rupees ($801 million) for the April-June quarter, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [3][4] - Revenue for the same quarter rose by 7.5% year-on-year to 422.8 billion rupees [4] Revenue Forecast - Infosys now expects revenue growth of 1% to 3% on a constant-currency basis for the current financial year, an increase from the previous forecast of flat to 3% growth [3][4] - The company's performance is attributed to its enterprise AI capabilities and large deal wins totaling $3.8 billion, indicating strong client relationships [4] Industry Context - Despite Infosys's positive results, the broader Indian IT sector, valued at $283 billion, faces a challenging outlook, with larger rival TCS reporting disappointing quarterly numbers [5] - The slow revival in client spending is noted, influenced by global economic uncertainties and trade tensions, although Trump's tariffs do not directly impact Indian IT firms [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a year-on-year growth of not less than 30% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, with adjusted net profit projected to grow approximately 65%-72% to 450-469 million yuan, exceeding expectations [7] - The core business of image and design products is showing significant operational leverage, with an increase in paid subscription users driving rapid revenue growth. The gross margin of this business is high, and as its revenue share increases, it is expected to enhance overall gross profit and margin [7] - The introduction of AI features in products like beauty cameras and Meitu Xiuxiu has led to significant user engagement, with expectations for substantial growth in overseas monthly active users (MAU) [7] - The company is focusing on AI productivity tools, particularly in e-commerce scenarios, with a strategic partnership with Alibaba expected to accelerate user expansion [7] - The company forecasts adjusted net profits of 854.22 million yuan, 1,176.94 million yuan, and 1,473.84 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 52, 38, and 30 [1][7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,696 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 29.27%. For 2024, revenue is expected to reach 3,341 million yuan, growing by 23.93% [1] - Adjusted net profit for 2023 is estimated at 368.30 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 233.17%. The adjusted EPS for 2023 is projected at 0.08 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 7,046.68 million yuan in 2024 to 10,077.93 million yuan by 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [8]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese enterprises are actively engaging in the long-term proposition of becoming "global enterprises," with significant growth in overseas market contributions and a shift towards innovation and localization in their global strategies [2][3]. Group 1: Market Expansion and Revenue Contribution - The market scale for Chinese enterprises going global is expanding, with a record export value of 13 trillion RMB in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [2]. - In Q1 2025, China's total foreign direct investment reached 40.9 billion USD, up 6.2% year-on-year [2]. - A-share companies' overseas revenue is projected to exceed 10 trillion RMB in 2024, marking a 2.8-fold increase over the past decade, with overseas revenue accounting for 14.28% of total revenue, a rise of 4.65 percentage points compared to ten years ago [2]. Group 2: Globalization Trends and Strategies - The current phase of globalization for Chinese enterprises emphasizes not just "going out," but also the ability to "stay" and "integrate" into foreign markets [3]. - The transition from "goods going out" to "value going out" is driven by systematic evolution in technology, organization, and market strategy, focusing on product innovation and localization [3][4]. - A notable trend is the shift from "manufacturing" to "intelligent manufacturing," with many enterprises concentrating on key technology sectors such as smart manufacturing and AI [3]. Group 3: Localization and Organizational Changes - Many technology-driven enterprises are establishing R&D centers overseas from the outset, adopting a "native globalization" approach rather than the traditional "local first, then global" model [4]. - Over two-thirds of selected enterprises have set up local operational teams and decision-making centers abroad, enhancing local market responsiveness [4]. - The concept of localization has evolved from mere channel development to a comprehensive approach that includes organizational adaptation and local management integration [4]. Group 4: Sustainable Global Layout and Innovation - Content-driven enterprises are moving away from "traffic export" models to focus on building sustainable local content ecosystems, with some establishing "content outposts" for local narrative participation [5]. - The globalization of Chinese enterprises is now characterized by a need to reconstruct capabilities, driven by product, investment, and value outputs [5]. Group 5: Leadership and Governance - "Leading figures" in the globalization process are those who optimize organizational, governance, and product structures to build globally capable enterprises [7]. - These enterprises are increasingly establishing comprehensive overseas management systems that encompass strategic planning, brand building, and ESG responsibilities [7]. Group 6: Innovation and Market Responsiveness - Innovative figures focus on "opportunity structures," seeking unmet user needs and distribution gaps in global markets, emphasizing speed and product adaptability [27]. - Successful practices involve designing products for global users from the start, with flat organizational structures and market-aligned decision-making [27]. Group 7: Emerging Enterprises and Industry Concentration - The characteristics of outbound enterprises are becoming industry-specific, with technology-driven companies playing crucial roles in global applications of AI, robotics, and software services [56]. - Consumer brands leverage China's supply chain advantages to create closed loops of "front-end branding + back-end manufacturing" in overseas markets [56]. - Cultural and content enterprises are deeply engaging in local narrative construction, moving beyond simple content export strategies [56].

Group 1 - Top Win International Limited has partnered with Simon Gerovich and KCGI for a planned investment in SGA Co., Ltd, which has received board approval for a third-party share issuance to this consortium [1][2] - Upon completion of the investment, the consortium will become the largest shareholder of SGA Co., Ltd, with proceeds aimed at strategic asset acquisitions and general corporate purposes [2] - SGA Co., Ltd plans to leverage the consortium's global network and expertise to pursue new initiatives in the digital asset space while maintaining its core business operations [2] Group 2 - Top Win International Limited specializes in the trading, distribution, and retail of luxury watches and has recently ventured into the Web3 ecosystem and digital assets as part of its future business direction [3]