August 20, 2025 07:15 PM GMT US Economics | North America What are the tariff costs and who is bearing them? Tariffs are acting as a consumption and production tax, amplifying inflation risks and squeezing margins. They are also increasingly shaping corporate strategy and pricing behavior. Key Takeaways | M August 20, 2025 07:15 PM GMT US Economics North America | Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC | Update | | --- | --- | --- | | | Arunima Sinha | | | | Global Economist | | | What are the tariff costs and | Arunima. ...

Q2 2025 Performance - Zebra Technologies delivered better-than-expected results, driven by demand recovery, lower U S import tariff expenses, operating leverage, and strong execution[8, 11] - Net sales reached $1293 million, reflecting a 6 3% organic net sales growth, with strong performance in North America, Asia Pacific, and Latin America[11, 15] - Adjusted EBITDA margin increased by 10bps to 20 6%, despite a 70bps decline in adjusted gross margin primarily due to U S import tariffs[11, 15] - Non-GAAP diluted EPS increased by 13 5% to $3 61[11, 15] Regional and Segment Performance - North America experienced an 8% organic net sales growth, while Asia Pacific grew by 20% and Latin America by 11%[17] - EMEA saw a (1)% decline in regional organic net sales growth[17] - Asset Intelligence & Tracking segment grew by 5 8%, and Enterprise Visibility & Mobility grew by 6 5%[17] Financial Position and Outlook - The company has a strong liquidity position with $872 million in cash and cash equivalents and a $1 5 billion revolving credit facility capacity[19] - Free cash flow was $288 million year-to-date, $101 million lower year-over-year due to higher incentive compensation payments and timing of inventory purchases[19] - The company expects approximately $30 million gross profit net impact for FY25 from U S import tariffs, improved from $70 million as of prior guidance[20] - The full-year outlook for sales growth is between 5% and 7%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin between 21% and 22%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS between $15 25 and $15 75[22]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US Equity Market** and its dynamics, particularly focusing on the **S&P 500** and broader economic indicators affecting equities. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **V-Shaped Recovery in EPS Revisions**: The recent bullish sentiment in the market is attributed to a V-shaped recovery in earnings per share (EPS) revisions breadth, indicating a positive shift in earnings expectations since April 2025 [4][6][10]. 2. **Labor Market Weakness**: A weaker labor report suggests potential consolidation in the market, with the labor data being a lagging indicator that may prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider rate cuts if the trend continues [4][9][29]. 3. **Expectations for Fed Actions**: The bond market is pricing an 88% chance of a Fed cut in September, indicating that the market anticipates a dovish shift in monetary policy due to deteriorating labor data [9][29]. 4. **Inflation Concerns**: Tariff-related inflation is expected to impact growth data, which could delay Fed rate cuts, leading to potential corrections in equity markets [4][25][30]. 5. **Bull Market Dynamics**: The current bull market, which is only four months old, is expected to experience pullbacks, particularly in the seasonally weak third quarter [4][26][28]. 6. **Positive 12-Month Outlook**: Despite near-term risks, there is a higher conviction in a bullish 12-month outlook driven by better earnings and cash flow growth, aided by factors such as AI adoption and pent-up demand [5][24][23]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Government Hiring Impact**: Government hiring has masked underlying weaknesses in the private labor market, which may lead to a more significant rise in unemployment and could influence Fed actions [21][27]. 2. **Sector-Specific Risks**: The impact of tariffs is seen as idiosyncratic, affecting consumer goods more than industrials, where companies may have better pricing power [25][30]. 3. **Global Money Supply Trends**: A deceleration in the global money supply rate of change could weigh on risk assets, particularly if the dollar strengthens [33][34]. 4. **Earnings Revisions Breadth**: The sharp rebound in earnings revisions breadth may face challenges in maintaining momentum, which could lead to short-term stock price pressures [34][35]. 5. **AI Adoption Theme**: Companies that are significant adopters of AI are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, with a focus on their materiality to the investment thesis [40][41]. Conclusion - The overall sentiment indicates cautious optimism in the equity markets, with a focus on monitoring labor data and inflation trends as key indicators for future Fed actions and market performance. The potential for a correction exists, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to structural growth drivers.

Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, August 2.Last week ushered in a handful of Magnificent 7 earnings that brought the halo lift to broader tech that everyone expected. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) hit a record high of $59.77 on Thursday, on the backs of outperformers Meta Platforms (META) and Microsoft (MSFT). What investors didn’t expect though, was Friday’s sharp tariff-infused selloff to take the wind out of Big Tech’s sales, winds that had propped up the N ...

近日，IDC发布报告称，2025年，AI Agent将迎来规模化落地浪潮，其通过智能化任务处理重构标准化 作业流程的潜力备受期待。随着技术迭代与行业渗透加深，建立AI Agent标准化体系已成为产业共识。 围绕AI Agent核心功能，如任务处理精准度、响应及时性、系统可扩展性等，构建标准化框架，明确定 义合格的AI Agent产品应具备的关键性能指标。 业内分析认为，AI Agent标准化加速，率先布局的科技龙头正抢占市场份额。以联想集团为例，在近日 WAIC2025上，联想展示了天禧超级个人智能体为代表的个人智能（Personal AI），还展示了企业智能 （Enterprise AI）领域的创新实践与落地成果——联想乐享超级智能体、城市超级智能体，搭载了乐享 超级智能体的首位"硅基员工"——乐享壹号成为WAIC现场的流量担当，引发广泛关注。 中信证券认为，2025年有望成为AI应用落地的元年，AI Agent应用场景有望迎来快速爆发，2027后有望 加速渗透，用户使用率有望陡峭提升，其未来渗透率必将达到高水平，2030年前大概率将比当前提高一 个数量级。 AI巨头彰显配置价值 当下，智能体正从技术验证迈 ...

Core Viewpoint - Alibaba has announced the technological progress of its self-developed AI glasses, "Quark AI Glasses," during the opening day of the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) [1] Group 1: Product Features - Quark AI Glasses integrate Alibaba and Alipay ecosystems, featuring the Tongyi Qianwen large model and the latest AI capabilities [1] - The glasses support various functionalities including Gaode near-eye navigation, Alipay payment scanning, Taobao price comparison, and Fliggy travel reminders [1] - Key features include communication, music playback, translation, and meeting minutes, with breakthroughs in AI interaction, wearability, display and imaging, and battery life [1]

Summary of 2Q25 Pre-announcements for MSCI China and A-shares Industry Overview - The report focuses on the performance of the **A-share** and **MSCI China** markets for the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) - A total of **1,528 A-share companies** (~30% by number of companies, ~25% by market cap) released pre-announcements, indicating a significant improvement from previous quarters [2][5][14] Key Findings A-share Market - The net negative alert ratio for A-shares in 2Q25 was **-4.8%**, similar to **-4.6%** in 2Q24 and significantly better than **-18.8%** in 4Q24 [8][17] - By market cap, the net positive alert ratio reached **+4.7%**, up from **+2.8%** in 2Q24 and **-0.7%** in 4Q24 [8][17] - Large-cap companies showed resilience with a net negative alert of **-1.4%**, while small-cap companies improved to **-7.4%** from **-31.1%** in 4Q24 [8][17] - Financial Services, Materials, and Technology Hardware sectors recorded the highest net positive alerts, while Consumer Services, Real Estate, and Software sectors had the largest net negative alerts [8][17] MSCI China Market - The MSCI China universe reported a net positive alert ratio of **+6.8%**, improving from **+1.4%** in 2Q24 and **+2.2%** in 4Q24 [9][30] - **69 stocks** announced positive alerts compared to **31 companies** with negative alerts [33] - Financials and Materials sectors had the highest net positive alerts, while Real Estate and Utilities sectors had the most net negative alerts [33][34] Earnings Estimates Revisions - As of July 18, 2025, **240 MSCI China constituents** (~47% by number of companies) had earnings estimates revised by more than **1%** [2][36] - A net **11%** of MSCI China constituents saw 2025 consensus earnings estimates revised downward [13][37] - By index weight, a net **0%** of MSCI China saw 2025 consensus earnings estimates raised during the assessment period [37] Stock Recommendations - Based on the analysis, **nine stocks** were identified as favorable investments, while **six stocks** were deemed to face challenges going into the 2Q25 results season [12][59] - The positively screened stocks include companies from sectors such as Materials, Pharmaceuticals, and Automotive, with specific tickers and price targets provided [59] Additional Insights - The report highlights the uneven recovery across different market capitalizations, with large-cap companies performing better than mid and small-cap companies [17] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious optimism for the upcoming earnings season, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for growth [47][51] This summary encapsulates the key points from the 2Q25 pre-announcements for MSCI China and A-shares, providing insights into market performance, sector dynamics, and stock recommendations.

Core Insights - Zebra Technologies Corporation (ZBRA) is positioned to benefit from strong performance across its business segments, operational excellence, and strategic acquisitions, focusing on growth opportunities and long-term market positioning [1] Business Performance - The Enterprise Visibility & Mobility segment has seen an 8.1% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2025, driven by higher sales of mobile computing and data capture solutions, along with increased service and software sales [2] - The Asset Intelligence & Tracking segment experienced an 18.4% year-over-year sales increase in Q1 2025, supported by solid demand for printing solutions and RFID products [3] - For Q2 2025, the company anticipates net sales growth of 4-7% compared to the same quarter last year, reflecting overall business strength [3] Acquisition Strategy - Zebra Technologies acquired Photoneo in March 2025, enhancing its 3D machine vision solutions by integrating Photoneo's technology with its existing capabilities [4] - The acquisition of Matrox Imaging in June 2022 has allowed Zebra to strengthen its fixed industrial scanning and machine vision portfolio [5] Stock Performance and Shareholder Returns - ZBRA's stock has increased by 44.6% over the past three months, outperforming the industry average growth of 42% [8] - The company has repurchased shares worth $125 million in Q1 2025, compared to $47 million in Q1 2024, with a remaining buyback capacity of $721 million from a $1 billion program authorized in May 2022 [9] - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 reached $158 million, marking a 42.3% year-over-year increase, supporting shareholder-friendly policies [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ZBRA's 2025 earnings is $14.51 per share, reflecting a 7.3% year-over-year increase, while the estimate for 2026 earnings is $16.41 per share, indicating a 13.1% increase from the previous year [10]

Core Insights - Nvidia Corp has become the world's most valuable company in history, with shares reaching a record high of $160.98, reflecting a 19.1% increase since the start of 2025 [1] - Historically, Nvidia has performed well in the third quarter, finishing positively in eight out of the last ten years, with an average return of 14.4% during this period [3] Company Performance - Nvidia's stock performance in the third quarter has averaged a return of 14.4%, and if it continues this trend, shares could potentially reach $184.16 [3] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for Nvidia is at 32%, indicating low volatility expectations among options traders, ranking in the low 1st percentile of its annual range [4] Comparative Analysis - Among S&P 500 stocks, Nvidia has a return of 14.38% in the third quarter, making it one of the best performers in the Technology Hardware & Equipment sector [4]

Summary of Xiaomi Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xiaomi Corporation (1810 HK) - **Industry**: Technology Hardware & Equipment Key Points and Arguments 1. **Product Launch and Demand**: Xiaomi's YU7 SUV has seen exceptional demand, with pre-orders reaching 289,000 units within the first hour of launch, significantly outperforming the SU7's 88,000 units in 24 hours [11] 2. **Pricing Strategy**: The YU7 is priced competitively, with the standard model starting at Rmb253,500, which is Rmb10,000-30,000 below comparable Tesla models. Additionally, Xiaomi is offering free options valued up to Rmb66,000 [11] 3. **Market Positioning**: The battery-electric vehicle (BEV) SUV segment in China is viewed as an accessible market for the YU7, given the significant volume gap between Tesla's Model Y and its competitors [11] 4. **Product Features**: The YU7 boasts a range of 835 km for the standard model, surpassing the Tesla Model Y's 593 km. It also features a quick charge capability of 620 km in 15 minutes compared to Tesla's 275 km [11] 5. **Comfort and Technology Enhancements**: The YU7 includes upgraded comfort features such as zero-gravity front seats, an intelligent suspension system, and advanced smart interactions with the XiaoAi assistant [11] 6. **Financial Outlook**: Xiaomi maintains an Outperform rating with a 12-month target price of HK$69.32, reflecting a potential total shareholder return (TSR) of 21.8% [6][5] 7. **Revenue Projections**: Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb365.9 billion in 2024 to Rmb742.8 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [7] 8. **Profitability Metrics**: Adjusted profit is expected to increase from Rmb27.2 billion in 2024 to Rmb77.8 billion in 2027, with an adjusted EPS growth of 40.3% in 2025 [7] 9. **Market Capitalization**: As of June 26, 2025, Xiaomi's market capitalization is approximately USD 188.056 billion [6] Additional Important Information - **Competitive Landscape**: Xiaomi's investments in core EV technologies are highlighted as key drivers for its success in the automotive sector [11] - **Production and Delivery Timeline**: Initial deliveries of the YU7 are expected to start in August, with a potential wait time of 20 to 30 weeks due to production ramp-up [11] - **Stock Volatility**: The stock is categorized with a medium volatility index, indicating a moderate risk profile for investors [6] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Xiaomi conference call, focusing on product performance, market strategy, financial outlook, and competitive positioning.