中新社北京12月20日电 (记者 王梦瑶)2025年，全球经济在关税冲击、地缘冲突等多重挑战中前行。展 望2026年，中外专家和国际机构判断，不确定性将成为新常态并长期存在，但世界经济韧性仍在。 国际货币基金组织(IMF)驻华首席代表马歇尔·米尔斯在近日举行的"《财经》年会2026：预测与战略暨 2025全球财富管理论坛"上指出，世界地缘政治、技术和人口结构都在演变，人类活动对地球的影响日 益加剧，其结果是全球不确定性急剧攀升且持续走高。米尔斯表示，这样的不确定性会保留很长时间， 必须做好应对准备。 中国宏观经济研究院研究员张燕生指出，未来国际环境很大程度取决于三个影响因素：第一是全球经济 贸易投资是更开放还是更封闭，第二是新科技革命和产业变革是趋于合作还是走向脱钩对抗，第三是大 国关系前景。 香港科技大学地缘经济研究所所长金刻羽指出，地缘政治和经济深度融合已经从"背景音"成为主导国家 政策、企业战略的核心命题。最近几年无论从贸易、金融、人口流动还是政治上来看，分裂信号都在急 剧上升且非常明显。 尽管面临诸多挑战，国际货币基金组织10月发布的《世界经济展望报告》显示，今明两年全球增长仅会 小幅放缓。 米尔斯指 ...

Economic Outlook - IMF projects global GDP growth of 3.2% for 2025, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July's forecast, but 0.2 percentage points lower than 2024[3] - Advanced economies expected to grow at 1.6% in 2025, with the US growth forecast reduced to 2.0% due to policy uncertainties and trade barriers[6] - Emerging markets, particularly China and India, are expected to maintain resilience, with China projected to grow at 4.8% in 2025[6] Risks and Concerns - Continued trade policy uncertainty and rising protectionism may hinder global output and increase inflationary pressures[4] - Fiscal and financial market vulnerabilities, particularly in the US, could lead to asset price instability and undermine confidence in US debt[4] - Overly optimistic growth expectations for AI may lead to a reassessment of tech stock valuations, reminiscent of the 2000-2001 internet bubble[4] Commodity Prices and Inflation - Geopolitical conflicts may drive up prices of essential goods, with potential adverse effects on agricultural output due to climate-related issues[4] - Current US inflation remains moderate, but the impact of tariffs on inflation may become more pronounced over time[5] - The labor market may experience mixed effects from tariffs, with some sectors benefiting while others face cost pressures[5] China’s Economic Outlook - IMF maintains a neutral stance on China's economy, projecting GDP growth of 4.8% for 2025, but the report suggests a more optimistic view is warranted[5] - Recent data indicates a significant decline in bilateral trade with the US, while trade with other regions remains stable[5] Conclusion - IMF's cautious tone reflects concerns over global economic risks, emphasizing the need for flexibility in assessing evolving market conditions[5] - Potential risks include intensified US-China tensions, geopolitical crises, and unexpected global economic pressures[7]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Russia's GDP growth forecast for 2025 down to 0.6%, while maintaining a 1% growth forecast for 2026 [1] - Compared to the IMF's July forecast, the GDP growth prediction for Russia this year has been lowered by 0.3 percentage points [1] - Russia's economic growth was 4.3% last year, and the IMF had previously estimated a 4.1% growth rate for this year in April [1] Group 2 - The adjustment in the GDP growth forecast for this year is attributed to recent data indicating that Russian budget expenditures are concentrated in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to an increase in the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 4.1% to 4.3% [1] - The IMF predicts that the inflation rate in Russia will reach 9% in 2025, decreasing to 5.2% by 2026 [1] - The unemployment rate in Russia was estimated at 2.5% last year, expected to decrease to 2.4% this year, and is projected to rise to 3.1% in the future [1] Group 3 - The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has also revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 down from 2.5% to 1%, and for 2026 from 2.4% to 1.3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will host a seminar on the "World Economic Outlook Report" in Beijing on June 20, 2025, focusing on "High-Quality Regional Economic Development and Policy Innovation" amidst global economic challenges [2][3]. Group 1: Event Details - The seminar is co-hosted by the IMF, Renmin University of China, and the International Cooperation Center (ICC) [2]. - Key speakers include Marshall Mills, the IMF's Chief Representative in China, and experts from various sectors [2][3]. - The event aims to provide insights into the latest economic trends and policy recommendations for high-quality development in China [2]. Group 2: Economic Context - The year 2025 marks a critical period for China's economic planning, being the concluding year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the preparatory year for the "15th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - Current global economic challenges include trade tensions, policy uncertainties, and external risks such as geopolitical conflicts and extreme weather [2]. - The seminar will address the need for innovative policies to guide China's high-quality economic development in this complex environment [2]. Group 3: Institutional Background - The International Monetary Institute (IMI) was established on December 20, 2009, focusing on research in monetary finance theory, policy, and strategy [5]. - IMI has produced significant academic contributions, including various reports on international finance and macroeconomic analysis [5]. - The institute organizes numerous high-level forums and lectures annually, contributing to the discourse on global economic and financial issues [5].