1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. In the fundamental raw material segment, copper concentrate processing fees remain in the negative range, and the continuous tight supply of raw materials still supports copper prices. On the supply side, after the previous concentrated maintenance, smelting capacity may be released again, but the tight supply of raw materials will limit the capacity to some extent, so the domestic refined copper supply will only increase slightly. On the demand side, the impact of the off - season for consumption is gradually emerging, and the relatively high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption. In this context, downstream purchasing sentiment may be more cautious. In terms of inventory, the overall social inventory remains at a medium - low level, but there may be some inventory accumulation due to the off - season. In terms of consumption, the year - end rush of domestic power infrastructure and the year - end sales push of the new energy vehicle industry support the demand to some extent. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the two lines are above the 0 axis and the green bars are contracting. The overall view is to conduct light - position volatile trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 89,210 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 11,253 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the open interest of the main contract is 223,984 lots, down 1,622 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures holders is - 34,929 lots, down 7,914 lots; the LME copper inventory is 161,800 tons, up 2,375 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 97,930 tons, down 12,673 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 28,969 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 88,980 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 89,085 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 48.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 39 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of the CU main contract is - 230 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME copper cash - 3 months spread is 69.18 US dollars/ton, up 0.08 US dollars; the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons; the weekly TC of domestic copper smelters is - 42.75 US dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 79,020 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 79,720 yuan/metal ton, down 440 yuan; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly processing fee for blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons; the monthly import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons; the weekly social copper inventory is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 60,840 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan; the ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 74,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons; the cumulative monthly investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan; the cumulative monthly real estate development investment is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.96%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 18.20%, down 0.09%; the at - the - money implied volatility is 17.45%, down 0.0114; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, up 0.0683 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission Director Zheng Shanjie said in a signed article that the "15th Five - Year Plan" will prioritize the construction of a modern industrial system, focusing on optimizing traditional industries and developing emerging and future industries, and accelerating the development of strategic emerging industry clusters such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low - altitude economy; US President Trump plans to announce the next Fed Chair nominee in early 2026, and it is reported that he has "pre - selected" White House National Economic Council Director Hassett; the OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.2% and 2.9% in the next two years, with the US economy growing 2% and 1.7% and the eurozone economy growing 1.3% and 1.2%; the UNCTAD predicts that the global economic growth will slow to 2.6% in 2025, lower than 2.9% in 2024, and emphasizes the impact of financial market volatility on global trade [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 3 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局弱稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日涨幅，量仓扩大，移仓换月完 成。现阶段，重大会议临近，乐观预期发酵，给予钢价支撑，但供需双 弱局面下螺纹钢基本面并未好转，淡季钢价易承压，预期现实博弈下预 计钢价延续震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日跌幅，量仓收缩，移仓换 月将完成。目前来看，得益于市场情绪回暖，热卷期价震荡走高，但供 应压力未退，且需求有 ...

Core Points - Trump hinted at Hasset as the next Federal Reserve Chair, impacting the dollar index negatively [1] - The OECD forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% for the next two years, consistent with previous predictions [1][2] - The Chinese yuan has appreciated against the dollar, with the onshore yuan breaking the 7.07 mark and offshore yuan reaching a 14-month high [1] Group 1 - Trump's announcement regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair could influence market expectations and the dollar's performance [1] - The OECD's economic outlook indicates resilience in the global economy but highlights risks such as trade barriers and fiscal vulnerabilities [1][2] - The Chinese yuan's trading volume increased by 12.6% in November, although the average daily trading volume remains below October levels [2] Group 2 - The OECD predicts that developed economies will end the current rate-cutting cycle by the end of 2026, with the Fed expected to lower rates only twice before maintaining a range of 3.25% to 3.5% throughout 2027 [2] - Market conditions are expected to become more variable following the December FOMC meeting, influenced by weak U.S. employment data and speculation about the next Fed Chair [2] - The Australian and New Zealand Bank anticipates a moderate appreciation of the yuan against the dollar, projecting it to reach around 6.95 by the end of 2026 [2]

经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2% 和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告指出，今年全球经济韧性超出预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能 泡沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告预计，受到加征关税、私人消费放缓及联邦政府"停摆"影响，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8%降至 2025年的2.0%，并在2026年进一步放缓至1.7%；2025年和2026年，欧元区经济预计将增长1.3%和 1.2%。 报告还认为，美国当前财政政策路径不可持续，减少巨额赤字是当务之急。此外，美国标普500股票指 数周期调整市盈率接近历史高位，股市大幅调整风险较高。 报告强调，各国应努力缓解贸易紧张局势，减少政策不确定性，抑制通货膨胀，应对金融风险，推进改 革以提升生产率。经合组织秘书长马赛厄斯·科尔曼表示，各国开展建设性对话是持久缓解贸易紧张、 改善全球经济前景的关键。全球市场保持开放且运行顺畅，有助于提升民众生活水平，促进经济增长。 (家电网® HEA.CN) 报告认为，扩张性的宏观政策导向、市场对新技术的积极预期，以及人工智能相关领域带动的贸易和投 资增长，共同支撑了全球需求。报告同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodities, presenting market conditions, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each. It suggests different trading strategies based on the characteristics of each sector, such as short - term trading, long - term investment, and arbitrage opportunities [1] 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share market declined with reduced trading volume on Tuesday. Major indices and four major stock index futures contracts all fell. There are preparations for commercial real - estate REITs and new regulations on infrastructure REITs. A - share market trading volume decreased, and there was a net capital withdrawal. Short - term strategies include lightly selling December put options and gradually building long - spread positions on dips [2][3][4] - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures closed down across the board, with bond yields generally rising. The central bank's bond - buying scale was less than expected, and the bond market sentiment was weak. Although there was a net capital withdrawal in the open market, the inter - bank funds were still relatively loose. It is recommended to reduce left - side operations, temporarily wait and see, and pay attention to the implementation of the bond - fund redemption fee new regulations. Also, consider the positive - spread strategy for the 2603 contract [5][6] Precious Metals - **Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium**: Global central banks' expectations of monetary easing have decreased. Gold weakened, while silver continued to rise due to tight inventory. Platinum was dragged down by gold, and palladium rose due to industrial support. In the long - term, the bull market in precious metals is expected to continue, but there are short - term fluctuations. Different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [7][9][10] Shipping Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European line index and related routes' indices declined. The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends. The futures market is expected to be volatile in the short term [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, and the spot premium stabilized. There are concerns about potential supply shortages, and copper prices are expected to remain high in the long - term. Short - term trading should focus on December interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and pay attention to support levels [12][13][16] - **Alumina**: The visible inventory continued to increase, and the market supply was still abundant. The price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, and the main contract's reference range has shifted downwards [17][18][19] - **Aluminum**: Driven by both macro and micro factors, the aluminum price is expected to remain strong in the short - term. It is necessary to pay attention to the Fed's monetary policy and domestic inventory reduction [19][20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand maintains resilience. The price is expected to have strong short - term performance, and an arbitrage strategy can be considered [21][22][24] - **Zinc**: The supply reduction expectation provides support, but the spot trading is dull. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the TC inflection point and refined - zinc inventory changes [24][25][27] - **Tin**: There are disturbances on the supply side, and the tin price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to hold existing long positions and buy on dips, while paying attention to macro changes [27][29][31] - **Nickel**: The price is oscillating within a range, and the upward driving force is limited due to fundamental pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [31][32][33] - **Stainless Steel**: The price oscillated slightly higher, but the fundamental pressure has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to steel mills' production - cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [33][34][36] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is oscillating, and market differences may increase in the future. It is recommended to wait and see, as the market faces issues such as large - scale factory resumption and off - season demand [37][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price opened lower and fell. The supply is expected to exceed demand in December, and it is recommended to wait and see in the futures market and take profit on put options [40][41][42] - **Industrial Silicon**: The demand is poor, and the futures price oscillated downwards. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the price range is estimated [43][44][44] Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel mills are reducing production. The steel price is expected to oscillate within a range, and a long - rebar and short - iron - ore arbitrage strategy can be considered [45][46][47] - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the port inventory increased. The iron - ore price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the operating range is given [48][50][51] - **Coking Coal**: The price of domestic coking coal decreased, and the price of Mongolian coal stabilized. The futures price rebounded after an oversold situation. It is recommended to view it as an oscillation and consider an inverse - spread strategy [52][53][55] - **Coke**: The first - round price cut in December has been implemented, and the port trading price has declined. The futures price is expected to oscillate, and an inverse - spread strategy is recommended [56][57][58] Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The market lacks guidance, and both domestic and international markets are mainly oscillating. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China's soybean - purchasing trends [59][60][61] - **Pigs**: The spot price pressure remains, and the month - to - month inverse - spread position can be held. The pig price is expected to oscillate weakly [63][64][64] - **Corn**: The spot price shows a differentiated trend, and the futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to pay attention to the rhythm of corn supply [65][66][66] - **Sugar**: The raw - sugar price is in a bearish pattern, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to maintain a bottom - oscillation mindset [67][68][70] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price is oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic cotton price is oscillating within a range. It is necessary to wait for the global agricultural supply - demand forecast report [70][71][72] - **Eggs**: The egg price is stable with a slight increase, but the pressure is still high. The futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [73][74][74] - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm - oil price rose, and the domestic palm - oil price followed suit. The domestic soybean - oil price is oscillating narrowly. Different outlooks and strategies are provided for each [75][76][77] - **Jujubes**: The price in the production area has weakened, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. It is necessary to pay attention to the terminal consumption during the peak season [78][79][79] - **Apples**: The demand for stored apples is average, and the sales are slow. The market situation is relatively stable [80][80][80] Energy and Chemicals - **PX**: The medium - term supply - demand expectation has improved, and the short - term oil price is strong. The short - term support for PX is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 7000 [80][81][81] - **PTA**: The supply - demand pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term. The rebound space for PTA is limited. It is recommended to view it as a high - level oscillation and consider a low - level positive - spread strategy [82][83][83] - **Short - Fiber**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the processing fee is mainly compressed. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee should be shorted on rallies [84][85][85] - **Bottle - Chip**: The supply - demand situation in December remains loose. The price follows the raw - material fluctuations, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed. It is recommended to short the processing fee [86][87][87] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to expected device maintenance, the inventory - building amplitude in December will narrow, but the supply - demand pattern remains loose. It is expected to oscillate within a range [88][88][88] - **Pure Benzene**: The port inventory is increasing, the supply - demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rebounds [89][90][90] - **Styrene**: The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the profit has improved, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [91][92][92] - **LLDPE**: The overall trading is weak, and the spot price has little change. It is expected to oscillate within a range [93][93][94] - **PP**: There are many unexpected device maintenance events, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [94][94][94] - **Methanol**: The spot price is strong, and the trading is acceptable. It is recommended to short the 05MTO spread [95][95][95] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand still has pressure, and the price is expected to run weakly [95][96][96] - **PVC**: The short - term futures price has rebounded, but the supply - demand contradiction has not improved. The price is expected to remain weak at the bottom [98][98][98] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda - ash production has rebounded after a decline, and the futures price is oscillating. The glass sales have declined, and the spot price has fallen. Different strategies are recommended for each [99][100][101] - **Natural Rubber**: The overseas raw - material price has stopped rising and started to fall, and the rubber price is mainly oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see [102][104][104] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Driven by butadiene export news, the BR price has risen strongly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 10800 [104][106][106]

（文章来源：期货日报网） 据新华社电经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报告，预计今明两年全球经济增速 分别为3.2%和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告指出，今年全球经济韧性超出预期，但仍面临贸易壁 垒、人工智能泡沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The OECD's latest economic outlook report forecasts global economic growth rates of 3.2% for this year and 2.9% for next year, consistent with predictions made in September [1] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Expansionary macroeconomic policies, positive market expectations for new technologies, and growth in trade and investment driven by artificial intelligence are supporting global demand [1] Group 2: Potential Risks - The report warns of accumulating potential risks to the global economy, including the escalation of trade protectionism that could severely damage global supply chains and output [1] - Overvaluation of assets based on optimistic expectations surrounding artificial intelligence development may lead to sudden corrections [1] - Fiscal vulnerabilities in various countries could hinder economic growth [1]

报告认为，美国关税对全球经济的影响正在进一步显现，并传导至支出选择、企业成本以及消费价格。 美国经济面临的这些影响尤为明显。 报告提及美国经济面临的风险，如需求承压、通胀顽固、就业市场疲软及巨额赤字。报告显示，美国涉 及加征关税的进口商品总值较非征税进口商品明显下降，说明关税正抑制美国整体需求，预计贸易量将 继续承压。考虑到就业市场降温及关税抬高消费价格，预计美国家庭消费增长将继续放缓，通胀可能更 加持久，从而减少降息空间。 经济合作与发展组织(经合组织)2日发布最新经济展望报告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2%和 2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告指出，今年全球经济韧性超出预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能泡 沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告还认为，美国当前财政政策路径不可持续，减少巨额赤字是当务之急。此外，美国标普500股票指 数周期调整市盈率接近历史高位，股市大幅调整风险较高。 报告预计，受到加征关税、私人消费放缓及联邦政府"停摆"影响，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8%降至 2025年的2.0%，并在2026年进一步放缓至1.7%；2025年和2026年，欧元区经济预计将增长1.3%和 1.2%。 ...

新华社巴黎12月2日电（记者崔可欣）经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）2日发布最新经济展望报 告，预计今明两年全球经济增速分别为3.2%和2.9%，与今年9月预测一致。报告指出，今年全球经济韧 性超出预期，但仍面临贸易壁垒、人工智能泡沫和财政脆弱性等风险。 报告预计，受到加征关税、私人消费放缓及联邦政府"停摆"影响，美国经济增速将由2024年的2.8% 降至2025年的2.0%，并在2026年进一步放缓至1.7%；2025年和2026年，欧元区经济预计将增长1.3%和 1.2%。 报告认为，扩张性的宏观政策导向、市场对新技术的积极预期，以及人工智能相关领域带动的贸易 和投资增长，共同支撑了全球需求。报告同时警告，全球经济的潜在风险正在累积：贸易保护主义升级 可能严重损害全球供应链和产出，基于人工智能发展乐观预期的资产高估值可能突然回调，各国财政脆 弱性可能阻碍经济增长。 报告认为，美国关税对全球经济的影响正在进一步显现，并传导至支出选择、企业成本以及消费价 格。美国经济面临的这些影响尤为明显。 报告还认为，美国当前财政政策路径不可持续，减少巨额赤字是当务之急。此外，美国标普500股 票指数周期调整市盈率接近历史高 ...

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has closed its bullish stance on the British pound, indicating that the currency may have reached its last favorable catalyst recently [1] - Following the UK budget announcement, the pound briefly rebounded against the dollar, but this upward trend is likely to fade [1][4] - The attractiveness of the pound against the dollar has diminished, with its correlation to the stock market dropping to zero and a lack of positive local drivers in the short term [1] Group 2 - The pound rose above 1.32 against the dollar after the budget announcement, signaling a more restrained government borrowing approach [4] - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Bank of England implements sufficient rate cuts, it could alleviate negative factors affecting the pound, potentially creating more fiscal space [4] - Jefferies also anticipates that the pound's upward momentum is unlikely to persist, citing ongoing fiscal vulnerabilities as a reason for further potential weakness [4]