Macro Strategy - The report analyzes three historical cases of capacity adjustment over a century, highlighting the negative feedback loop of capacity imbalance and the importance of government intervention to restore balance [1][12] - It emphasizes that supply-demand rebalancing requires simultaneous efforts in controlling capacity, restoring credit, and stabilizing employment, rather than relying solely on supply or demand policies [1][12] Fixed Income - The new bond value-added tax regulation enhances the relative attractiveness of credit bonds, as their interest income is not subject to the tax, while government bonds lose their tax exemption [2][3][13] - The adjustment in tax rates is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and other interest rate bonds by approximately 10 basis points, with potential increases in relative value for credit bonds by 5-15 basis points for proprietary trading departments [2][3][14] Industry Analysis - The asset operation and maintenance (O&M) industry is gaining importance post-capital formation peak, with growth driven more by product development than by personnel or capital [4][15] - The report indicates that the O&M market is projected to grow significantly, with the current market size at approximately 2.44 trillion and expected to reach around 5.5 trillion in ten years [4][15] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Borui Data, Rongzhi Rixin, and Xianheng International, as they are positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-quality O&M services [4][15] Electronic Industry - The ASIC business model requires service providers to have strong IP design and SoC design capabilities, with major players like Broadcom and Marvell holding significant market shares [5][16][17] - The custom chip market is projected to reach $55.4 billion by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 53% from 2023 to 2028, driven by the demand for AI acceleration [5][16][17] - The report highlights the potential for margin pressure in the custom chip business due to increased competition from domestic firms entering the AI ASIC market [5][16][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has exceeded market expectations with its 2025H1 performance, forecasting revenue of at least 30.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 37%, and a net profit of at least 7.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 215% [8] - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the strong performance of self-developed games and the steady growth of the TapTap platform, with improvements in game gross margins and user engagement [8] - The company has revised its profit forecasts upwards, expecting net profits of 1.69 billion yuan, 1.94 billion yuan, and 2.05 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on new game releases and the TapTap platform's value [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5,012 million yuan in 2024 to 7,800 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 2.87% [1] - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 811.53 million yuan in 2024 to 2,047.56 million yuan in 2027, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.65 yuan in 2024 to 4.15 yuan in 2027, reflecting improved profitability [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 40.94 in 2024 to 16.23 in 2027, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [1]

8月4日，心动公司（02400.HK）发布了2025半年度盈利预喜公告，预期2025年上半年取得收入不少于人民币30.5亿元，较去年同期收入（22.2亿元人民 币）增长约37%；净利润不少于人民币7.9亿元，同比增长约215%。 初心服简化了原版的复杂养成系统，仅开放6大基础职业，让玩家能够体验更加原汁原味的剧情，找回最初的RO冒险乐趣，更适合休闲玩家"养老"。 《心动小镇》是一款以慢节奏生活模拟为核心的3D社交建造手游，主打自由建造、田园生活与轻松社交，玩家可以在一个童话风格的欧式小镇中打造个 性化家园，体验"慢节奏、无压力"的休闲生活。 上个月推出一周年庆典及小马宝莉联动版本后，《心动小镇》曾一度跃升至国内iOS畅销榜TOP8。截至目前，游戏仍然能够保持在畅销榜60名左右，长线 表现相当稳定。 以刷宝为核心的ARPG《火炬之光：无限》继承了经典"火炬之光"IP的世界观，主打自由BD搭配、多流派构建、无限制刷图、赛季制更新等特色玩法。游 戏于2023年5月10日上线，首周登顶国内iOS免费榜，畅销榜上则最高排到第11位。 公告提到，公司业绩大幅提升主要归功于旗下几款自研游戏的成功运营，以及TapTap平台在 ...